Who is your favorite?
I like to know what makes you say all of this is true. Do you just take the word of any source you read?
No I did not. Reread what I said. You may find it to be a matter of interpretation but when one says polls reflect the site of the readers (not exact words- paraphrasing) it means the polls mean nothing.
What I heard is poll results are associated with the source of who is doing the polling. You didn’t mention Pew or 538, but those are known for neutrality. 538 was also way off in 2016, as were a lot of polls. Anyway, there are also very biased polls, kind of goes without saying doesn’t it? I think all of this is pretty obvious, and when someone says “as reflected in the polls”, you have to ask “which polls”. It can be fun to examine the micro views of different age groups or geographies, but there is no overarching direction indicated by “the polls”. That’s what I heard.
1 Like
That too. That said, any poll we read before an election is actually reflective of the end results. Any poll prior to an election can say that Biden is losing, but that’s not necessarily true unless one says to themselves, “Oh well, my man is losing, so I might as well vote for the person I really do not want or not vote at all.” Then yes, Biden will lose if that what people tell themselves. If they ignore the polls and vote for who they want to vote for, then the end results tell the true winner.
And that’s a big part of how Trump won in 2016. Hillary was apparently listening to those polls, and thinking she had it all wrapped up. I’ll never forget the Michael Moore podcast in mid-2016. He was at an event in Ohio, behind the scenes at some conservative gathering and he pulled out his phone and recorded a warning, that Trump would take Ohio, that Trump voters were not letting themselves be polled, they didn’t trust the pollsters, they didn’t feel listened to and weren’t going to trust the media to get their voices heard, instead, they voted.
1 Like
Mike moore has the same warning to Biden
Then why did you ask to see the polls? They obviously mean something
Homework 1 - then produce a poll that shows biden is winning in these swing states
Homework 2 - then what is the bias in a NYT poll ? Towards trump or biden?
Actually, they don’t, at least not to me. I’m saying they are bias though, but that does not mean the poll that says this candidate or that candidate is winning, means that when the election happens that poll is correct. I really don’t care what any poll says. All I care about is that final number after the election. I also don’t care what any poll says before the election because I’m still going to vote for the person I think is best and it’s not that orange creature. The orange creature will destroy the U.S.
I wanted to see what you were basing your comment on. Your data doesn’t lead to your conclusion.
Your original claim was not that Trump was winning in swing states. I never made a claim, so why would I need to produce evidence?
I don’t care. They publish their methods. I don’t Google things that I don’t care about.
1 Like
Then why did you ask to see the polls?
The question wasnt to you
You can’t be shown that they are meaningless if you don’t produce what you’re looking at. They are ALL meaningless.
1 Like
Why did you ask to see the polls? Can we stick with this question?
Goes without saying. Polls only as good as the data input yet you cant show a poll that shows something different to the NYT polls.
She answered the question. Stop harassing. No one is required to answer anything. But you are required to be civil.
I just told you!!!
I’m glad you agree. It’s important to do that now and then when in dialog with someone who has opposing to your own.
As for showing what evidence you want from me, your fallacy is “generalization on the basis of insufficient evidence”. I don’t care enough about this to give you any particular evidence. Given how you’ve been arguing, I suspect any evidence I gave you would just be something else for you to argue about. I’m not interested in an argument about what the polls say right now. We’ve established that they vary and have limited predictive power. My lack of interest says nothing about whether or not Trump or Biden are ahead, or gaining, or will lose or win. Even if you want to declare some sort of shallow victory and say I was unable to prove my case (a case I don’t think I even made), or even if Trump wins and you come back to this thread 6 months from now and say “I told you so”, your fallacy is still a fallacy.
1 Like
You told me they are ALL meaningless is the reason . What a great reason to ask to see them 