You don’t really believe that non-citizens commit murder at rates lower than citizens, do you? Statistics can be manipulated pretty badly in this area, but here’s a concise analysis that concludes the opposite: Illegal Aliens Murder at a Much Higher Rate Than US Citizens Do - American Thinker. Texas is included in the data.
You don't really believe that non-citizens commit murder at rates lower than citizens, do you? Statistics can be manipulated pretty badly in this area, but here's a concise analysis that concludes the opposite: http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/07/illegal_aliens_murder_at_a_much_higher_rate_than_us_citizens_do.html. Texas is included in the data.Can you show me the math on this?
Let’s take homicide as an example. The GAO estimates “criminal aliens" were arrested, convicted and incarcerated for 25,064 homicides. If non-citizens committed them over seven years, the annual rate would be 14.2 per 100,000 non-citizens. If illegal aliens committed them over four years, the annual rate would be 58.0 per 100,000 illegal aliens. Either way you compute, those are high rates. By comparison, the FBI reports the murder rates for the entire U.S. from 2003 through 2009 varied from 5.0 to 5.8 per 100,000 inhabitants for an average rate of 5.5. To be clear, 5.5 is much lower than either 14.2 or 58.0. Or look at the total number of homicides in those years. Per the FBI, there were 67,642 murders in the U.S. from 2005 through 2008, and 115,717 from 2003 through 2009. Per the GAO, criminal aliens committed 25,064 of them. That means they committed 22% to 37% of all murders in the U.S., while being only 3.52% to 8.25% of the population.Where does he get 14.2 per 100,000 non-citizens? Edit: I found that number, but my question now is, where did Table 2 come from? He starts dividing that out, but the table doesn't say what time span that 3 million crimes is covering. The periods they used for arriving at the estimate is not necessarily what they are estimating.
You don't really believe that non-citizens commit murder at rates lower than citizens, do you? Statistics can be manipulated pretty badly in this area, but here's a concise analysis that concludes the opposite: http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/07/illegal_aliens_murder_at_a_much_higher_rate_than_us_citizens_do.html. Texas is included in the data.Oh my. Read what RationalWiki says about the link you cited. They refer to "American Thinker" as "American Stinker". The specific article relies on assumptions. I will go back and find where I got the 7.5% and 11% figures (two separate, but, both, actually credible sources). The rest of my point was just doing the math and logic of the Jared fellow that you cited.
Ah, well, it seems the folks at American Thinker don’t have a very high opinion of RationalWiki (RationalWiki: American Thinker is a Wingnut Publication - American Thinker) either. I really wish people could avoid name-calling, like “wingnut”, “asshat”, etc. Looking at that RationalWiki page, and being a long-time Wikipedia editor, I’m not impressed that they do enough to guard against their own biases. The talk page is empty, and it looks like 90% of it was authored by one guy (User talk:ClothCoat - RationalWiki).
… wait … hold the phone. It looks like RationalWiki is a spoof site, right? I’m just checking out their article on the Republican Party (Republican Party - RationalWiki). It’s just like they mention in the American Thinker article – it’s a lot like Uncyclopedia, but except not funny.
Ok, whatever. You cited a questionable source. I cited a source that questions them. The real point is the actual data.
“The agency’s latest report covers June 1, 2011, to July 31, 2015. In that time, 344 noncitizens were convicted of homicide. In about the same period, Texas had 4,571 murders… So based on counts of actual cases, criminal aliens account for 7.5 percent of all homicides in Texas.” from http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/aug/17/tom-tancredo/tancredo-muffs-illegal-immigrant-murder-stats/ The agency referred to from which the 7.5% calculation was derived is the Texas Department of Public Safety.
I’ll find the reference for the 11% number of non-citizens in Texas, later. Have to go right now.
You don't really believe that non-citizens commit murder at rates lower than citizens, do you? Statistics can be manipulated pretty badly in this area, but here's a concise analysis that concludes the opposite: http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/07/illegal_aliens_murder_at_a_much_higher_rate_than_us_citizens_do.html. Texas is included in the data.Tim and Klorthos-this is no different than the Refugees are terrorists argument. It's fundamentally wrong that a country can leak in 10 million or so people illegally without any rule of law. 10 million people or more. It affects the economic structure and not in a good way. It's bad for labor-it's bad for wages.
That’s another thing that compels me to choose Trump above the other GOPs.
They don’t want him. He ain’t good for their establishment.
The GOP is afraid he’ll upset some apple carts. They’re afraid they won’t be able to control him.
I like this.
Ok, whatever. You cited a questionable source. I cited a source that questions them. The real point is the actual data. "The agency’s latest report covers June 1, 2011, to July 31, 2015. In that time, 344 noncitizens were convicted of homicide. In about the same period, Texas had 4,571 murders... So based on counts of actual cases, criminal aliens account for 7.5 percent of all homicides in Texas." from http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/aug/17/tom-tancredo/tancredo-muffs-illegal-immigrant-murder-stats/ The agency referred to from which the 7.5% calculation was derived is the Texas Department of Public Safety. I'll find the reference for the 11% number of non-citizens in Texas, later. Have to go right now.Ok, here's where I got the 11% figure. http://kff.org/other/state-indicator/distribution-by-citizenship-status/ The Kaiser Family foundation (Kaiser the industrialist and founder of Kaiser Permanente) probably not left wing biased in data compilation. And neither would the TDPS be left wing biased in data compilation. Anyway, you don't even need to do Jared's math. The 2nd number is bigger than the 1st number, hence immigrants are not murdering at the rate of the rest of the population, in Texas.
I've read the replies and conclude Trump won't get any primary votes from this group. I do think it's his money. If he had to rely on financial support from others, he wouldn't be on the radar screen of this forum. Money is power in the world today. The most wealthy financial organization is Catholic with about half of the wealth on the planet.I don't know about wealthy Catholics, but Trump hasn't been using much of his money, so far. Jeb W.'s PACs have spent almost as much on advertisements as the others combined, and Jeb's poll numbers have fallen, despite this. (That makes me feel not so bad about the "Citizens United" ruling.) A big part of Trump's appeal is that he does not have to rely on the big money interests (other than his own).
You don't really believe that non-citizens commit murder at rates lower than citizens, do you? Statistics can be manipulated pretty badly in this area, but here's a concise analysis that concludes the opposite: http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/07/illegal_aliens_murder_at_a_much_higher_rate_than_us_citizens_do.html. Texas is included in the data.Can you show me the math on this?
Let’s take homicide as an example. The GAO estimates “criminal aliens" were arrested, convicted and incarcerated for 25,064 homicides. If non-citizens committed them over seven years, the annual rate would be 14.2 per 100,000 non-citizens. If illegal aliens committed them over four years, the annual rate would be 58.0 per 100,000 illegal aliens. Either way you compute, those are high rates. By comparison, the FBI reports the murder rates for the entire U.S. from 2003 through 2009 varied from 5.0 to 5.8 per 100,000 inhabitants for an average rate of 5.5. To be clear, 5.5 is much lower than either 14.2 or 58.0. Or look at the total number of homicides in those years. Per the FBI, there were 67,642 murders in the U.S. from 2005 through 2008, and 115,717 from 2003 through 2009. Per the GAO, criminal aliens committed 25,064 of them. That means they committed 22% to 37% of all murders in the U.S., while being only 3.52% to 8.25% of the population.Where does he get 14.2 per 100,000 non-citizens? Edit: I found that number, but my question now is, where did Table 2 come from? He starts dividing that out, but the table doesn't say what time span that 3 million crimes is covering. The periods they used for arriving at the estimate is not necessarily what they are estimating. Oh, no worries, I found the problem. Pg 18 explains where the number of arrests comes from. The murderers per 100,000 figures are meaningless. He's pulling numbers randomly and making up what they mean. He's counting on you to accept his analysis and not read the linked study. Really Klortho, think about it. Those rates were so high, there wouldn't be controversy about this if they were true. Rates like that exist in the worst neighborhoods of the biggest cities, and we know what the historical forces are that cause them. We also see them on the news regularly. 3 million crimes from 10 million people in a 4 year span just didn't make sense. It was an obvious thing to drill down on. That he gave citations all over but then popped up "Table 2", a table that didn't explain what it's own data was, should have been a clue. You are reading articles that confirm your bias and not checking their work. This is the opposite of "open minded".
That's another thing that compels me to choose Trump above the other GOPs. They don't want him. He ain't good for their establishment. The GOP is afraid he'll upset some apple carts. They're afraid they won't be able to control him. I like this.A crazed monkey can upset an apple cart. Doesn't mean he would be a good POTUS. (No offense to crazed monkeys.)
A crazed monkey can upset an apple cart. Doesn't mean he would be a good POTUS. (No offense to crazed monkeys.)What's your idea of a good POTUS? In the positive sense.
A crazed monkey can upset an apple cart. Doesn't mean he would be a good POTUS. (No offense to crazed monkeys.)What's your idea of a good POTUS? In the positive sense. Someone exactly like Barack Hussein Obama, except not black. Because there are too many Americans who obviously can't handle that.
Someone exactly like Barack Hussein Obama, except not black. Because there are too many Americans who obviously can't handle that.You rock buddy!! Except I say make the next one black too! Even though you're right.
If Trump gets he nomination, watch all the Republicans fall all over themselves to support him. Blood is thicker than water. Outrageous ignorance was their mothers’ milk.
Lois
@Lausten, you are right, I stand corrected! I went through the article in more detail, and I see that you’re right about table 2. The author assumed that the number of homicides was for the four year period (or maybe seven – I can’t quite make it out) which would have given about a 14/100,000/year rate, but it looks like that number is the total number of convictions for that population, going back an indefinite amount of time.
The issue of crime rate of immigrants is a tricky one, and I’ve read a good deal about it, but I’m by no means an expert. I’ve come to the impression that the rate of crime among Hispanic immigrants is somewhat higher than the native white population. And when I was responding to @TimB before, I went googling, and was sloppy in picking an article that purported to show this – apologies for wasting your time.
But that doesn’t mean I’m not open minded. Really, I don’t think I need you to lecture me about what open minded means. I’m a very recent convert to my anti-immigration views. And I know damn few people who, like me, can say they’re on the far-left on climate change and the far-right on immigration, for example. I think that qualifies me to say I’m open minded.
And, I’m pretty good, I think, at being able to tell good research from bad. Steve Sailer, as I’ve said before, is a straight shooter. Here’s an article by him on race and crime, which also deals a lot with hispanic immigrants and crime: Mapping The Unmentionable: Race And Crime | Articles | VDARE.com. Read it, and you’ll get an idea of how many confounding variables there are when trying to tease out the actual rates.
One thing to note is that it’s pretty clear that the children of immigrants tend to commit more crime than first-generation ones. Sailer suggests this might be part of the reason that Texas has low numbers for Hispanics – because more of them are recent immigrants.
Here’s an article that goes a lot deeper: The Myth of Hispanic Crime, by Ron Unz - The Unz Review. It’s quite long and detailed, but the author concludes that, in fact, rates of Hispanic crime is only nominally higher than native whites, if at all.
But let’s remember how we got started down this path: @TimB suggested that the rates of immigrant murders were dramatically lower than that of citizens. Even that might be true, but a confounding factor is that “citizens” includes both whites and blacks, and blacks have a much higher crime rate than whites.
And why did TimB bring that up? Because he was trying to argue against my anti-immigrant stance. But there are a lot more reasons to be anti-open-borders than just murder rates. As @VYAZMA suggested, a primary one is economic. Uncontrolled immigration from third world countries has been disastrous for our economy, and it’s only going to get worse. The effects on the underclass, especially urban blacks, has been profound. Liberals so often decry the lack of opportunities for them, but Ted Kennedy’s 1965 immigration reform, and the ~1 million low-skilled immigrants / year that we’ve been absorbing since then, are one of the main reasons for it.
Uncontrolled immigration from third world countries has been disastrous for our economy, and it's only going to get worse. The effects on the underclass, especially urban blacks, has been profound. Liberals so often decry the lack of opportunities for them, but Ted Kennedy's 1965 immigration reform, and the ~1 million low-skilled immigrants / year that we've been absorbing since then, are one of the main reasons for it.You have done nothing to make this case. What disaster? For that matter, what 3rd world? People arrived here from all over with nothing but what they could carry, not knowing English and they built this country. Then something happened in the middle of the last century and suddenly it's a "disaster" to have people come here. Being "left wing" on some things "right" on others does not make you open minded. Btw.
Ah, you don’t know much about the immigration issue; some of those are really worn out tropes. That’s okay, that’s why I started out suggesting you guys try to escape your echo chamber. A good place to start would be"Alien Nation" by Peter Brimelow. It’s from 20 years ago, but still as relevant as ever (in fact, because it’s from 20 years ago, it’s fun to see how prescient it was).
Ah, you don't know much about the immigration issue; some of those are really worn out tropes. That's okay, that's why I started out suggesting you guys try to escape your echo chamber. A good place to start would be"Alien Nation" by Peter Brimelow. It's from 20 years ago, but still as relevant as ever (in fact, because it's from 20 years ago, it's fun to see how prescient it was)."you don't know much about" is not an argument. "worn out tropes" is not an argument. "Go read a book from 20 years ago" is possibly an argument, but given all the other errors you've made, it's doubtful that you have selected quality reading material.
> given all the other errors you’ve made
How petty and snide. You’ve never made a mistake? I thought I’d get some points for admitting it. And, “all the other errors” – I only count one.
Obama has been a disaster. Remember the “hope” that was around when he started his presidency, that maybe it would be good for race relations? Whatever happened to that?