In tracking COVID-19, keep your eye on this number

It’s not that it will kill you or your family, or that you will lose your means of livelihood.
True. My family is pretty much all dead. And I am long retired from a career. But that does not mean that I cannot think.

And I think that trying to prematurely open the economy is not going to do a damn thing to actually get the economy back on track.

It doesn’t matter what I will lose, or have lost. Opening up bowling alleys and beaches and nail salons or anything without a working plan, is going to have almost no effect on the economy but may well give our enemy, C-19, aid and comfort, and a fresh start.

You know the numbers to keep an eye on, those trumpsters that insist on large crowded gatherings while a new increasingly deadly virus is spreading and mutating through out the nation, lets see how time judges their choices.
Nonsense. Coronavirus is not mutating to become more deadly.

It seems plenty bad enough, as it is, to kick our butts.

It seems plenty bad enough, as it is, to kick our butts.
I keep telling you it is not as bad as you think. The virus may be contagious but it is not deadly. The kill rate is about 5% of those who get infected (if the data is even correct). And those 5% who succumb have health issues caused by bad choices they made that have wrecked their immune systems. If you are healthy, the virus gives you a pass.
Nonsense. Coronavirus is not mutating to become more deadly. -- Oneguy
Who said it is becoming more deadly? And how do you know what it will mutate into?

Of course it’s mutating. That’s what viruses do

 

 

 

@thatoneguy: Nonsense. Coronavirus is not mutating to become more deadly.

@lausten: Who said it is becoming more deadly? And how do you know what it will mutate into?


Oneguy is correct.

Mutation is the nature of the beast. There is a good chance that mutations of Covid19 during RNA replications may reduce the virulence. That is, the virus may be slightly blunted. But there is a rare chance the change in the surface proteins may give birth to a more virulent form. But this outcome may be a rare occurrence. It is nature playing “Russian Roulettes”. Generally virulence decreases.

Generally virulence decreases.
It all depends on the environmental conditions it finds to exploit.

Besides less virulence, means greater chance of spreading to more people. Take Ebola for instance, it has not turned into a pandemic - not just because we still had adults calling the shots when the various crises hit and much was learned, - but because in incapacitated and killed before it had much chance of spreading. For us regular schmoes on the street, what we know is that it never became more than a regional problem. Since it was far away we could (and did) pretend it has nothing to do with our world.

Oh and up until recently I was also of the assumption that virus tends to get less lethal with time, but my smugness got rattled by this:

https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/is-ebola-evolving-into-a-more-deadly-virus
It all depends on the environmental conditions it finds to exploit.
I won't argue with you because I am not the expert (in microbiology) whom I quoted. Unless you are also an expert, I suggest we drop the subject and vote in favor of Oneguy.
Unless you are also an expert, I suggest we drop the subject and vote in favor of Oneguy.
Suddenly you are deferring to experts? Sree, you're elasticity of knows no bounds. I don;'t mean that in a good way.

I thought I had already posted this. But here I go again.

Maybe C-19 will mutate into a virus that just causes humans to be smarter. (We could really use that right now.) Or maybe it will mutate into a cross between itself and Ebola, thus giving us little time to all buy lipstick so that we can kiss our asses good-bye.

Or maybe it will have no significant mutations. Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding!

Regardless, I still can’t figure out why the current, seemingly most accepted Model for projecting the deaths of C-19 is 66,000 dead by August. When my non-expert, non-epidemiologist, simple math predicts over 100,000 by May.

Riddle me that Batman.

There is no evidence that covid19 is mutating to become more deadly. Scientists know other coronaviruses we are regularly exposed to don’t mutate to become worse so its unlikely this will.

So you agree with me that significant mutations to C-19 are unlikely. Great!

Now let’s move on to answering my question about why my projection of death totals from c-19 are higher than that of the currently accepted Model projection.

So, sunlight kills the C-19 virus in a matter of seconds. Sounds like the beach on a sunny day is a good place to be. This is not really news. UV light has been used for decades to sterilize all sorts of things including surgical instruments. There has been a mobile UV light tower on the market for at least 10 or 12 years which will sterilize an entire average hospital room and everything in it in about an hour. It was developed to fight MRSA. And we have used radiation which is specific frequencies of EMR - light - to fight cancer with some success.

I thought it interesting that Trump would imagine putting light inside a person to treat C-19. The best treatment for a cold I have found is to sit at a large window with my shirt off and let the sun shine on me for an hour or so. Light will penetrate some distance into almost all substances. I have seen it go right through very hot thin steel. Even a small flashlight will shine light through one’s skin. I wonder if the grow lights commonly available would have any effect on the virus. Oh yes, strong UV light can blind you and cook your skin, so if you use a UV source, be very careful to follow the directions.

Of course we didn’t really need a scientific explanation to tell us that the flu usually disappears in the spring and summer. Thus Trump’s prediction of a spring demise of C-19 wasn’t much of a long shot. Nor do we need science to tell us that people who get outside more are generally more healthy than those who stay inside. Sun worshipers of the world, you are justified!

Thus Trump’s prediction of a spring demise of C-19 wasn’t much of a long shot.
Oh hell did I miss the demise of COVID-19? Thank you Bob I am so relieved, and I thought this was going to settle in for the long haul.

Who your team for making it to the World Series?

So, sunlight kills the C-19 virus in a matter of seconds. Sounds like the beach on a sunny day is a good place to be.
Is that why the idiot prez suggested we inject bleach into our skin.

I missed this latest, so now we are supposed to insert a little sunlight into our bodies. Cool.

Oh course, I’ll admit to using the sun and breeze to sanitize my clothing and mask and such and after trips to town, or wife’s luggage when she finally got home. So I’m not knocking the basic claim, oh but how Republicans do extrapolate into the fanciful.

Just to be clear, this is the official transcript. I heard it was redacted from the original.

THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. So I asked Bill a question that probably some of you are thinking of, if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposing we hit the body with a tremendous — whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light — and I think you said that that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way, and I think you said you’re going to test that too. It sounds interesting.
 

He was asked about the disinfectant thing today. He said it was sarcasm. Psyche.

Of course, it was sarcasm for the benefit of the nasty press corp.

I have become addicted to Fox’s airing of Trump’s daily coronavirus battle with the fake news media journalists spaced out all over the room like keys of a musical instrument. And he would point to this one and that one to play them like a xylophone.

After he walks out of the briefing room, he would burst out laughing. I would then switch over to CNN to watch the fault-finding fact checks on the President and the disparaging analyses of his sparring by the likes of Kaitlan Collins, Jim Acosta, John King and Sanjay Gupta. Then, I would also burst out laughing.

If you would have said, “oh, that sounds like sarcasm” yesterday, you would have at least had a leg to stand on. You would still have to show HOW it was sarcasm. Otherwise, the word has no meaning.

Well, I guess Trump does have two legs to stand on after all.

THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. So I asked Bill a question that probably some of you are thinking of, if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposing we hit the body with a tremendous — whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light — and I think you said that that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way, and I think you said you’re going to test that too. It sounds interesting.
What sarcasm. This is utter deranged bullshit. This is the way interesting five year olds think - for a president to be talking like this is hideous beyond conception.

But sree, highlights the fact that this president and his constituents have nothing but the politics of resentment and vandalism - or okay I forgot there is the self-enrichment, shouldn’t overlook that.

Pissing off other people is their main goal in life. Destroying things is their joy. What else is there? Oh yeah, self-enrichment.