# COVID-19 has over a 20% mortality rate

I don’t know why but all sources seem to say that the death rate from COVID-19 is less than 4% which is a complete lie. It’s far higher than that yet people stopped using their brains and decided to just trust the information being given. The system used to come up with that number is cases vs deaths making it look as though the death had been at a low 5% but if you use that same formula and change it to cases vs recoveries then you could say that the recovery rate is at 21%. Plz just read it out and see if what I wrote makes sense, or at least give a good reason if I missed anything.

Explanation

Death Rate

The math used for death rate is:

Deaths / Cases = percentage result

58,004/1,076,017 = 5.4% death rate

Recovery rate

The math used for recovery rate is:

Recoveries / Cases. = percentage result

225,335/1,076,017 = 21% recovery rate

To get an actual fatality percentage you need to use this formula,

Fatality rate

Deaths / (Deaths + Recoveries)

58,004 / (58004 + 225,335) = 20.5% Fatality %

A covid death needs to be identified as one directly caused by the virus. I am 44, fit and healthy. If I get infected by the virus and die, my demise would count as a covid death. It’s like a soldier getting shot by a sniper and counted a a kill. Right now, they are throwing every corpse within spitting distance of the virus into the mix as a covid death. It’s panic station everywhere including on a goddam US warship. It’s pathetic. Your math is adding to the madness.

People seem to be quite comfortable with the math they think it is and just love to snuggle up against you in public areas. I guess it’s better for the shit to really hit the fan in a month rather than have people address the issue now and take it serious as it is. Enjoy your spring break.

I think that Sree is wrong to suggest that we are OVERESTIMATING deaths from C-19. If anything, I would suspect that the number of deaths is UNDERESTIMATED.

But either way, the death rate, in actuality, is probably the closest to accurate of any of the other numbers.

I think that the identified cases number is a MAJOR UNDERESTIMATION of the actual number of people infected. So that number is just bogus. Disregard it until we get numbers based on a legitimate randomized selected population of citizens surveillance tested (both C-19 testing and antibody testing) so as to determine a good approximation of the actual number of people who have or who have had the virus.

The “recoveries” number is PROBABLY thoroughly bogus, also, because there have very probably been many many people who have had the virus and never even knew they had it.

So with the deaths number being probably the closest to being a correct number, I think that you could play around with the death rate, using algebra. e.g., today the US deaths # is almost 8200. So we can ask what if the death rate in the US is 3%? Then we can determine “n” in the formula: 8200 = (n) .03. Solving for “n”, (which represents the possible actual number of people who have and have had C-19) you get 233,333. With this possible number at the 3% death rate, we have 233,333 actual US persons who have contracted C-19. But THAT CAN"T BE RIGHT, because the reported # of contracted cases are already at 300,000. Remember, we think that that number is a gross UNDERESTIMATION.

So let’s try a death rate of 1%. 8200 = (n) .o1, in which case n= 820,000. Ok, do we think that there are actually 820,000 cases of people in the US who have had or have had C-19? That is within the realm of possibility. But if we think there are MORE than 820,000 in actuality, then the death rate would be even lower than 1%. If we think there are LESS than 820,000 but definitely MORE than the current official # of 300,000, then the death rate would be somewhere between 1% and 3%.

You can’t go with the cases to get an accurate number of what the current mortality rate. Unless there’s a 3rd category that I’m missing here the only two possible outcomes are Death, or Recovery. Either you live or you die. Those numbers we do have and it’s so far at 20%. Of course, China is lying their asses off so we know their numbers are far worse meaning that the mortality is actually a bit higher. In the US alone the mortality rate is over 40%.

I just explained to you how the deaths per person who contract C-19 is probably closer to 1 per 100. Probably LESS than 3 per 100 at the most.

If the mortality rate was 40%, (or more as you suggest) then that would be at least 40 per 100. That is very far off.

You don’t seem to understand that there MUST be a LARGE number of people who have been infected and have already cleared the virus, NEVER EVEN KNOWING THEY HAD IT. Understand that the #recovered as represented (on the stats site that we are using) is a pittance of the real, as yet undetected, number of recoverees.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Again, note that the number titled Total Confirmed (Cases) just represents the cases that we know of. The real number is very probably MUCH higher. But for now, we don’t know even a closely accurate approximation for sure.

AND note the number titled Total Recovered. And again, that only represents the documented recoveries. The real number is very probably MUCH higher.

The number titled Total Deaths is likely closer to the real actual number of deaths, tho I think it is an under-report of the actual number, while Sree thinks it is an overestimate. (Sree is almost always wrong about stuff when he disagrees with me.)

Speaking of Sree being wrong…

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-death-toll-americans-are-almost-certainly-dying-of-covid-19-but-being-left-out-of-the-official-count/ar-BB12bSIa?ocid=spartanntp

Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard, said there are probably some people dying with covid-19 who are not dying of covid-19. Such misattribution is a problem for any cause of death, he said, but it is a minor issue that is “swamped by the opposite problem: deaths that are caused by covid but never attributed, so the death count is underestimated.”

Huh. The Harvard Epidemiologist agrees with me.

@timb and @mitch70 Sree is often wrong. Don’t let him get your goat. Just ignore him and talk amongst yourselves, because it does no good to try and educate Sree anymore than it does trying to educate the dotard.

Deaths / (Deaths + Recoveries) = Fatality %
I'm a little reluctant to respond to mitch/exMachina for similar reasons. He even stated he is a "horrible person" a month ago. I'm sure there was some irony in there somewhere, but he does seem to lean toward the inflammatory.

So, just simply checking the math, that’s not a fatality rate. It’s also important to note that we are in the midst of it, and the important data is the rate of spreading. We’ll have better data when more of the people who have it, recover. There will also be more time then to analyze the co-morbidity. Just like now, we know how to avoid a heart attack by taking preventative, lifestyle, measures, we’ll have new guidelines for avoiding viruses.

CFI forum has become a farmland and the fact that Doug is gone and Occam is no longer here only makes sense why this place is all but dead. Occam was my father and we argued but at least he could comprehend when i was making a point. Here everyone now takes statements for face value. Maybe there’s more to what I was saying, but then again you’re the “Keymaster” XD

a true joke of intellectual suicide.

@Mriana It’s don’t you think it’s a little odd that the CDC and the insulted Indian of color from the WHO organization uses a formula of reported cases vs deaths?That’s how they get th below 5% fatality. Reverse that and make it reported cases vs recovered and you can argue that only 20% of people have recovered.

Here everyone now takes statements for face value.
I said your math is wrong. I point out factual errors and challenge conclusions all the time and so do others. The hardest part is recognizing patterns and applying the rules to them. I would be glad to take up a conversation about what people here think our standards should be in the "Issues and Complaints" section, or a general discussion on the meaning of civility under one of the other forums.

Mitch, Occam, the old dude who used to moderate the forums and bark at people for having posts that rambled on? I liked him. He not only barked at those who did not use words parsimoniously, he had a lot of good input of his own.

I would invite you again to look at the invalidity of how you are trying to calculate the morbidity rate of C-19. The numbers that we see of “reported cases” are ONLY cases that have been confirmed. With C-19, a stealth virus, there are almost certainly MANY more people who have had and have recovered from C-19 than is known. In fact, they may have had it, passed it on to others and never even knew they had it.

Hence you cannot use that number to get a valid morbidity rate.

If you want a true and scary morbidity number, you could ask what is the death rate for C-19 sufferers once they are intubated (put on a ventilator). That would be 86%.

Not much of a treatment is it? But a last chance for some.

COVID-19 has over a 20% mortality rate?
By the law of exponentiation the current rate is 10% p/day, which results in a doubling time every week (7 days). That's is the last statistic I saw.
For example, if a quantity grows at 10% per year, then it will take 72/10 or 7.2 years to double in value. Replace years with days 10% = 7 days doubling time.
http://home.windstream.net/okrebs/page53.html

Yay! Write4U is back.

I started a thread about doubling time. Perhaps you could check it out.

I noted there, that right now, the doubling rate for total deaths, is indeed 1 X a week. In the two weeks before that, the doubling time was twice a week. I suspect that it will be going down further in the next week. e.g., maybe 1 X per 10 days or something like that.

When I am talking about the morbidity rate of C-19, I am talking about the REAL number of deaths divided by the REAL total of all who now have AND all who have had C-19.

That would be the REAL morbidity rate. I think that the rate may be different, in different places, for different reasons. But my best guess is that the REAL rate is around 1%. Now recall that I insist that there are MANY people who have caught C-19 than we know about.

I heard, today, there is a study, (I need to check it out) that asymptomatic C-19 carriers are most infectious BEFORE they ever begin to show symptoms. Now imagine all of the ones who were spreading the disease, but never quite got to the point of being symptomatic.

Evolutionarily speaking, one would think that the perfect stealth virus would be one that passes itself on without causing any symptoms, ever. It could spread and spread its progeny throughout humanity and we would be unaware.

Note: my calculations on the doubling rate are for the US.

@Lausten I’m ok if people tell me my math is wrong and explain their reasoning as to why, but why ignore the fact that MAJOR organizations and doctors are using wrong math to say that the mortality rate is less that 5%? Isn’t that a bigger issue?

Here’s the trusted doctors/CDC/WHO’s math

deaths/cases = results

It’s completely retarded and misleading since we don’t know the outcome of those cases. I honestly get your argument about the number of unreported cases, and I commend you for it because it does carry validity. I just argue that those cases may not be as many as you think. Once a country recognizes the threats, countries like Italy will be on full alert in regard to the symptoms and will report out of fear of dying. Italy has a high mortality rate. I could go on but at this point it’s just whining to people. We’ll see the outcome and to be honest I hope I’m 100% wrong about all of this.

Just don’t bring up the determination argument lest stephen lawrence come back.

It’s completely retarded and misleading
I should just stop there. And you might have me confused with Tim since I didn’t make an argument about unreported cases. My post was not so much a response to your inability to construct a story problem anyway.

I was pointing out all the ways people don’t atke statements at face value. This place is not dead, I see new members regularly.

I made the argument about unreported cases. THIS IS A STEALTH VIRUS. IT TRANSMITS, maybe mostly, BY AIRBORNE VIRUS, WHEN THE MASSES OF ASYMPTOMATIC PERSONS BREATH OUT IN THE PRESENCE OF NON INFECTED PERSONS BREATHING IN.

I shout because no one seems to be figuring this out. PROBABLY MORE PEOPLE THAN HAVE BEEN REPORTED as C-19 positive, HAVE NOT BEEN REPORTED BECAUSE THEY WERE ASYMPTOMATIC OR HAD SUCH MILD SYMPTOMS. Get that? There are probably MORE cases of C-19 that were asymptomatic and never reported, than the cases that have been reported.

There is a hospital in NY, in which, they try to protect pregnant women, coming in to deliver their baby, by testing ALL of them for C-19. So far, they have tested over 200 of these women. Around 30 came back positive. 4 had some symptoms. So this could imply that, at least in pregnant women, for every one who has C-19 symptoms, there are OVER 7 pregnant women who ARE ASYMPTOMATIC AND EACH HAS A UP TO A 5 DAY WINDOW TO INFECT OTHER PEOPLE.

There is a USS Theodore R. Aircraft Carrier, whose entire crew is or has now been tested. Out of over 5K of the individuals, I think it was over 500 who tested positive. 60% OF THOSE WERE ASYMPTOMATIC.

What I am saying is that it is VERY LIKELY that when we do enough testing (if that can ever happen with the ignorant DOTUS that we have) we will find, conclusively, that there are MORE asymptomatic persons who transmit the disease than symptomatic persons.

__

I add this proviso to the discussion, I have lost some confidence in the death totals as it seems clear that it is calculated in different ways in different countries, and none of them seem to take into account the many who probably have died without it EVER being discovered that they had C-19. But I still think, that of all the main numbers that we are presented with, (the reported cases, the reported recoveries, and the death totals) of those, the death totals are probably closer to (though an underestimation of) a VALID number.