This is based on a pretty basic extrapolation of the current logarithmic chart.
That chart shows that confirmed cases have been multiplying by ten every nine days or so but the chart also shows that the growth is linear, that is the multiplication factor - per day - is the same each day.
Unfortunately this website’s very poor functionality means I can’t show the image, but if you go here and select US on the left and then Logarithmic for the chart on the bottom right you’ll see.
The UK has a similar graph yet even Italy’s logarithmic graph is leveling which tells us that the number of days it takes for the confirmed infections to multiply by 10, is increasing, whereas UK and US it is a steady 9 or 10 days.
I think there is a link to that site in three or four threads now. Not that it’s a big deal as to how many times we post it, but it seems we are talking about that site in different ways a lot.
Unfortunately, right now it seems pretty hard to control the raw figure of reported cases with actual rate of new cases, in particular because reported cases will increase substantially due to increased testing, which in many cases discovers existing cases.
We have some tools right now, testing, social distancing, anti viral masks, increased sanitizing. I am confident we will, as a nation and a world, get through this as we have gotten through natural disasters and pandemics in the past. In fact, I think we are even better equipped to handle this than in some cases in the past.
But, unfortunately, here in the USA we suffer from an acute lack of leadership. If the warnings of the scientists and intelligence community had been heeded months ago we would be in far better shape than we are now. Still, I think we will ultimately rebound as a nation, albeit after taking some very serious losses.
Well, of course we will rebound as a nation, eventually.
Our current numbers are certainly questionable. We have to resort to approximation, interpolation, extrapolation, and best guesses, when we try to forecast. Because we don’t have adequate and accurate data. BECAUSE EVEN NOW TESTING IS BEING RATIONED.
But we try, anyway, to predict, in the face of chaos and uncertainty.
Here is that site that has been helpful to me, in monitoring and trying to analyze the pandemic. I bookmarked it.
I am glad you share my view that we will rebound from this natural disaster. Not everybody shares that view, which is why I stated it. In such a stressful and serious time as this some people are thinking that we will entirely collapse and in some sense be destroyed. I am confident that is not going to happen. This virus just is not deadly enough for that to happen and we have enough tools to combat the virus, so in combination, this is a recoverable and serious problem, but not a trigger for some sort of apocalypse.
Yes, testing is being rationed due to our critically incompetent leadership. South Korea is doing much better than the USA, but then, most of the developed nations have a health care system far superior to that of the USA, thanks again to our critical lack of leadership.
We all worried, or at least all of us outside of the red state minority, that with such cripplingly incompetent and criminal leadership we could manage to get by somewhat ok in good times but if we ever had a crisis our nation, the USA, would suffer horribly at the hands of a pathological liar criminal profoundly ignorant con man as the POTUS.
Quite right. Yes, we will rebound, eventually. Probably not as early as late summer, or fall, but maybe.
It could be next year. At least, by then, I think that the worst of the pandemic and our ability to deal with it will be tolerable enough that the economy can come back. Idk, what fundamental changes in our economy will ensue.
I figured a cut and paste version of website would be good.
Hugo, that’a very depressing list especially when looking at the killed, recovered list. Though I imagine it requires a bit of background knowledge and understanding to appreciate what’s going on there. To me it just looks like horror upon horror.
Well, of course we will rebound as a nation, eventually.
Has anyone else noticed how badly C-19 is kicking the USA’s ass, much more than it is with other countries???
I am speaking in terms of death totals. We are only behind Italy and Spain in total deaths attributed to C-19. And we will catch up with them, as they had a head start, and we also have a larger population.
How can someone look at the numbers and not think how badly we have dealt with this crisis compared with most other countries?
The Western nations have so many cases because we have so much freedom, leading to virtually open boarders, massive amounts of international travel, and an inability to impose draconian measures.
In China they call out the army and surround a city with military forces to quarantine people.
In India police walk the streets beating people who fail to follow orders.
If you find a site with per capita figures for cases please share.
Only India and China have larger populations than the USA.
Sure we have some freedom that other countries do not, but it also looks like we are also going to be behind other “free” western countries.
We may come out ahead of India, ultimately. I don’t think they can beat the C-19 out of their citizens and occupants.
But with our “freedom” we are also free to abide by onerous isolation guidelines in order to save our fellow citizens and economy. So with proper guidelines and competent leadership, manifesting way earlier than what has transpired, we would likely be SO MUCH better off than we are now.
It would be nice as you suggest to see the data comparatively with per capita figures.
I imported the google data into Excel, then sorted by cases per million people. I tried pasting here but I am not aware of a WYSIWYG preview here and the Edit feature here always kills the message by sending it to spam, fortunately I knew that and copied it first. So, I snapped a screen shot of the top 38.
There is some data provided about recovered and deaths but it is highly incomplete, so I did not calculate percent of deaths per confirmed case. The total recovered plus the total deaths reported is a small fraction of the confirmed cases for each country so that particular chart does not provide enough reliable data to make further sound calculations, in my opinion.
Thanks for your effort on that per capita chart. It doesn’t seem, to me, to have numbers that can be validly compared, due to probable differences in the numbers collected in different ways in different countries.
The only comparison that I think is relatively solid is the comparison of total # dead. (Unless some countries are purposely hiding the real number.) I guess it could be sorted according to deaths per 1 million people? Then we would know how far behind Italy, Spain, France we are in per capita deaths from C-19.
Wow! Those ladies were admitting to having Jesus’s blood all over them! Who is that? Their Hispanic lawn boy? What did they do to him? And now they’re just happily on their way to church service?!? Oh the humanity!
Well hopefully they will spend all of their time with birds of similar plumage. And may Saint Darwin watch over their children.
“….All that talk about austerity, don’t have money for social programs, don’t have the money for welfare don’t have the money for climate change action is all gone with the trillions able to be feed into wall st in this crisis. Where are all those people now who have previously shouted the house down for small govt?…” greenf
Green, You think you know what our economy is going to look like next year? Is what you suggest about some fundamental economic reformation more than wishful thinking?
T rump (if he remains in power) may wind up spending more trillions than Bernie ever would have. (and stealing a bunch of it). But in the meantime, more conservative Justices will solidify the far right’s grasp on the SCOTUS. And T rump’s outlandishness will not be around forever. But when he is no longer in the picture, the GOP could arise again. The repugs are so much better at dirty politics and getting political power one way or another. They can’t govern worth shit because they don’t like government except as a source of their power. But they could very well come back and subject us to the same old bust cycle that they always seem to eventually deliver.
Stardust – recover and become what? What this has shown is the mantra of free market Liberterian capitalism is dead.
Capitalism did not die from world wars, plagues, depressions, or pandemics of the past. There is no reason to suspect our present crisis will be the death of capitalism.
Capitalism is an expression of one core aspect of human nature, as it fuels innovation and productivity because the primary motivation for most people to strive and risk and create, is their own advancement.
Socialism is also an expression of an important aspect of our innate nature, our social species sensibilities.
That is why all nations are organized as a mix of capitalistic and socialistic structures. This crisis might shift that mix somewhat in the area of healthcare, and there will be some short term increases in personal and business government assistance.
We will get this virus under control as we have done for a dozen others, and then we will go back to being pretty much the same, just as we always have, but hopefully having grown a little wiser for the painful experience.
