A Dark April is about to dawn in the USA

http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-us-hospitals-could-be-overwhelmed-second-week-april-demand-icu

The forecast “predicts that 41 states will need more ICU beds than they currently have available and that 11 states may need to increase their ICU beds by 50% or more to meet patient needs before the current wave of the pandemic ends. (The end is defined as fewer than 10 deaths per day nationwide.)”

The medical system could quite possibly be breaking down significantly by mid April.

But IF we keep protecting ourselves and communities by “strongly adhering to social distancing measures and by taking other precautions advised by public health officials” we may avert the worst outcomes. e.g., "…based on observed death rates, this forecast estimates that over the next four months in the US, approximately 81,000 people will die from the virus. Estimates range between 38,000 and 162,000 US deaths. If we do not suppress societal interaction that spreads the virus, then the estimates would go up accordingly.

JUST MAYBE we could be coming out of this in the summer, and then VERY CAREFULLY determine how we can begin opening the economy back up. I would count us lucky if we can get thru this 1st COVID-19 wave with only 81,000 US citizens killed by it. (The death toll is less than 2000, atm. So how, you ask, do we get to that forecast of 81,000 four months from now? Get a clue about the “exponential” expansion of highly transmissible diseases. And give T rump a clue, while you’re at it.).

So there is some optimism for later this year. I am pessimistic about the things we are going to go thru in April, however. I think that a very dark April is awaiting us. But MAYBE, just maybe the spread rate will slow in the hot months, by this summer.

For those of us who would rather not die, or lose any more loved ones, I am hoping that if we can get thru the next several weeks, we may be on the other side of the curve AND headed downward in the # of deaths per day. Our chances of survival go up then. And hopefully, we will address any future recurring waves of infection better than we handled the 1st. At least, there should be some who are immune from a next wave (knock on wood).

Looking at Australia, I don’t know if warm weather will help. Right now, it’s late summer going into early fall. They have 3640 cases and 14 deaths. 244 have recovered, according the John Hopkins site https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You might be thinking well they are going into winter and it will increase in colder weather. This might be true, except like us, they’ve just started with the virus last month. They could either start peaking this month while it’s still warm or they might peak a couple of months from now when it’s colder down under. Either way, I question the temperature theory. However, Coronaviruses don’t like humidity, so maybe, at least in the states high in humidity, it will slow down.

However, I think you are right. April is going to be a very rough month for many states with tornadoes and the virus in KS, MO, TX, OK, AK and more states. Now there’s a scary though- being sick and a tornado hits. :’( OK now I’m really terrified.

Hopefully, we’ll make it. I only wish I could stay home through it all, instead of working in Hell.

I only wish I could stay home through it all, instead of working in Hell.
Selling your health, and possibly your life, for 30 pieces of silver. You betray yourself and those who love and depend upon you.

You are worth more than that. Get out, take your life back. They do to you only what you allow them to do. Take charge, you are the only one who can save you. Whatever it takes, your mental health is worth it.

You may not be able to “stay home”, but you can be in a place you don’t hate. Don’t let your imagined social status prevent you from getting help. There are people who can and will help you. The programs put in place to defend the economy during this virus may give you just the opportunity you need. Take advantage of them. Its an ill wind indeed that blows no good.

@ibelieveinlogic And just how do you propose I help my husband pay bills if I just up and quit without having another job to go to?

You may not be able to “stay home”, but you can be in a place you don’t hate.
I've picked up a stack of papers on my genealogy recently. One of my ancestors was raised poor, then built a business, then went to serve in the Confederate army, was injured, then moved to another state and started another career. What you don't see are the details of how he probably spent a lot of that time without a penny in his pocket. He had different skills than us, but those skills would not serve him today. If he was walking from TN to MO, and stopped to pick some fruit, or trap a squirrel, he'd be in jail that night. He wouldn't be thinking about bills or health insurance because those things didn't exist. If his war injuries were any worse, he would have just died. But that's not how we treat people anymore, at least not on paper. Today, we have modern infrastructure because we know people get injured and need to be cared for. But, we attached all of that to our employer. You have to be either employed or impoverished, then we'll help you. I don't think there was an evil genius who made things this way, but the people who are benefiting from it aren't going to be the ones who change it, and we can't change it by simply quitting our jobs.

Exactly, Lausten. If I up and quit, then I can’t pay my share of the medical insurance that my husband gets me and we both need medical insurance. I can’t pay my share of anything, which would only make it harder on my husband to keep up the bills. Life isn’t as easy as just quit the job if you don’t like it and move on to the next one, especially when you are older and a few years from retirement age. It just doesn’t work that way and I can see you get where I’m coming from. I don’t want to get sick and die nor do I want my husband to get sick and die either, but modern society doesn’t seem to care about us who are low wage earners and sadly an education doesn’t guarantee one a high paying job either.

if I just up and quit without having another job to go to?
I've done that three times that I can remember. Every time it felt like I finally got fresh air to breathe. It was wonderful. If I remember correctly I was unemployed less than a month each time. Only once did I have another job waiting for me before I turned in a notice. Every time I wound up with a better job, making more money.

I always started my job search by looking for a place - a location - that I thought I would enjoy. I was disappointed with my choice only once and that was my fault; I just didn’t do my homework and visit the area first. Easy enough to make a list of likes and dislikes for a place. Very easy today to check out employers in any area. And my first visit was always to the local employment office; easy to do on-line today. Many employers use that agency to screen potential employees, and the people there get paid to help you.

Very few people have an education and a skill set so specific that they are limited to a particular industry or a particular employer or one particular job. One thing I found is that employers don’t expect a new-hire to know anything, or much, about their particular operation. The fact that one has pursued an education and has worked for some time at at a job tells an employer that the person is capable and can be trained.

With so many young people the way they are today age is an advantage. Employers know older people show up and they don’t jump jobs for a 50 cent raise. Look at who Walmart hires; that ought to confirm it.

There are going to be many dislocations in the coming months. We are going to see massive changes in employment. You’ll never know what’s out there unless you look.

@ibelieveinlogic 1. you were young 2. you didn’t quit during a pandemic. One cannot just quit a job and expect to have the means to pay their health care needs, especially during a pandemic. You have no idea what you are talking about.

https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/still-nickel-and-dimed-a-decade-later

Your prejudices and just general lack of awareness of the world is really hard to interact with Bob/IBIL. It is just so messed up right now, when the economy tanks because people stop buying crap and driving their gas guzzling cars, but economists still don’t want to say that the engine of the economy is the people who work those jobs that are always hiring.

I’ve done that three times that I can remember. Every time it felt like I finally got fresh air to breathe. It was wonderful. If I remember correctly I was unemployed less than a month each time. Only once did I have another job waiting for me before I turned in a notice. Every time I wound up with a better job, making more money. I always started my job search by looking for a place – a location – that I thought I would enjoy. I was disappointed with my choice only once and that was my fault; I just didn’t do my homework and visit the area first. Easy enough to make a list of likes and dislikes for a place. Very easy today to check out employers in any area. And my first visit was always to the local employment office; easy to do on-line today. Many employers use that agency to screen potential employees, and the people there get paid to help you. Very few people have an education and a skill set so specific that they are limited to a particular industry or a particular employer or one particular job. One thing I found is that employers don’t expect a new-hire to know anything, or much, about their particular operation. The fact that one has pursued an education and has worked for some time at at a job tells an employer that the person is capable and can be trained. With so many young people the way they are today age is an advantage. Employers know older people show up and they don’t jump jobs for a 50 cent raise. Look at who Walmart hires; that ought to confirm it. There are going to be many dislocations in the coming months. We are going to see massive changes in employment. You’ll never know what’s out there unless you look.
There's a current saying the young are fond of that has to be the perfect response to this:

okboomer

 

Logic, sounds like good advice for young people, in the economy that we had BEFORE THE SHUTDOWN. So 2 problems with your advice, 1) it is not applicable currently and 2) young people don’t particularly want advice, especially when it is not applicable.

Worst of all, you gave Oneguy, the opening to criticize members of the Baby Boom generation.

Normally, I react to OK Boomer with a thesis on how you cant’ generalize about people of a certain age, but I’ll give you that one oneguy.

@ibelieveinlogic

You’ll never know what’s out there unless you look.
Your optimism tells me that you have a guardian angel. Mriana's pessimisim points to something else.

Jesus said that we will always have the poor with us. It’s right there in the Scripture. John chapter 12, verse 8. I have always wondered why that must be so. Why must there always be the rich and the poor? This video clip might throw some light on our human plight. The Jeremy Irons character owns a financial corporation that had just unloaded $200 billion of worthless mortgage backed securities onto unsuspecting counter-parties just before the 2008 crash.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtFyP0qy9XU

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of today the world has surpassed the 1st million known to have died from COVID-19.

Meanwhile the USA has over a quarter of the identified cases in the world (despite our operating with rationing of testing and with chronic lack of adequate numbers of truly available tests).

In New York, the medical system has reached the level of being overwhelmed, i.e., too many critically ill arriving at once. And they have a long way to go with their 1st wave. People are dying there already who would possibly not have died. Even people who don’t have COVID-19. Seems I heard that EMTs are now, not to reboot people’s hearts and bring them to the ER, should their heart stop for some reason. The ER’s are too damn crowded and they would not be able to be cared for anyway. I have not fact checked that last item about a new SOP for EMT’s, but it seems consistent.

Error correction. Above I said “…the world has surpassed the 1st million known to have died from COVID-19.” It should read “…the world has surpassed the 1st million known to have contracted COVID-19.”

It’s mostly accurate, although not that different from the normal guidelines. https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavirus/new-emt-directive-limits-some-hospital-transports-as-nyc-hospitals-fill-with-covid-19-patients

If a DNR is presented or the patient meets criteria for obvious death (ex. rigor), do not initiate resuscitation. In all other cases, resuscitation shall consist of the minimal number of providers necessary (to limit exposure), wearing proper PPE (N95, eyeshield, gloves and gown). If after performing CPR for 20 minutes, the AED indicates “no shock indicated” or the ALS monitor shows a non-shockable rhythm and the patient has not achieved return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC), terminate resuscitation (CPR). Each occurrence will be document by the department. The guidelines are for cardiac arrest patients over the age of 18 only, according to the FNDY.

@timb

Error correction. Above I said “…the world has surpassed the 1st million known to have died from COVID-19.” It should read “…the world has surpassed the 1st million known to have contracted COVID-19.”
Error correction, indeed. Just to keep everyone from keeling over in fear, here are some facts to put the situation in proper context.

As of today, John Hopkins reported 432 deaths for the state of New York where there are 410 funeral homes within the 5 boroughs of NYC. They can handle one funeral each without calling the White House for urgent supply of caskets. Cuomo needs to get a grip.

Just so.

Right wing normalizes Pandemics - just another ho hum day.

 

After all people die everyday, why is everyone making such a big deal about this,

come on, lets get back to making money already New York. ( = sree)

The Defense Dept has ordered 100,000 body bags. You can never have too many of those.