This is a scary prospect.
Let’s say Trump does not get 1237 votes on the 1st round at the Repub National Convention. Cruz, through superior political maneuvering, and by virtue of the fact that the delegates at the convention are more establishment oriented than the Repub primary voters, wins in a subsequent round.
Cruz could probably not win head to head against the Democrats’ nominee, BUT…
What if Trump, pissed off by being denied the nomination, mounts an independent campaign?
Trump would probably be formidable enough to win some states, and their electoral votes in the general election. Cruz with the backing of the RNC would probably win more.
The Democrats’ nominee would probably wind up getting the most electoral votes, in such a scenario, but quite possibly not the 270 needed to win. The House of Representatives would then select Cruz to be our next POTUS.
Are you scared, yet?
Not scared of that scenario. Trump is not going to win any states that a Democrat would win, he’ll just split the Republican vote the way Ralph Nader split the Democratic vote in 2000, allowing the Democratic candidate the garner even more Electoral College votes. Trump running as an independent would guarantee a Democratic victory and tear the Republican Party apart. I hope it happens. The Republican Party needs a reboot.
Not scared of that scenario. Trump is not going to win any states that a Democrat would win, he'll just split the Republican vote the way Ralph Nader split the Democratic vote in 2000, allowing the Democratic candidate the garner even more Electoral College votes. Trump running as an independent would guarantee a Democratic victory and tear the Republican Party apart. I hope it happens. The Republican Party needs a reboot.I hope that would be the case. But Trump is such a wild card, that, conceivably, the vote could be split by the Repub and the Dem in some states, allowing him to win some states.
Not scared of that scenario. Trump is not going to win any states that a Democrat would win, he'll just split the Republican vote the way Ralph Nader split the Democratic vote in 2000, allowing the Democratic candidate the garner even more Electoral College votes. Trump running as an independent would guarantee a Democratic victory and tear the Republican Party apart. I hope it happens. The Republican Party needs a reboot.I think you're right about that, which is why I tend not to believe the stories about the GOP planning on doing a 3rd party candidate end-run around Trump if he gets the nomination. They know that it'll rip the party apart, and they're more interested in maintaining power than they are in ideological purity (though they prefer ideological purity to reality), so they won't block Trump if he gets the nomination. What worries me are the idiots on the Dem side who are pledging that if "they're" candidate doesn't get the nomination, they'll write that candidate in. Its most likely just talk, after all the PUMAs (Party Unity My Ass) were supposed to write Hillary's name in on the ballot back in '08. That turned out to be all talk, of course, but a 3rd party run by Trump could inspire a significant number of "Bittercrats" to write in their candidate as opposed to voting for the eventual nominee. Throw in some voting "irregularities" caused by faulty machines and various voter suppression efforts and we could wind up with Cruz in the White House. Which would be just as bad, if not worse, than Trump.
Not scared of that scenario. Trump is not going to win any states that a Democrat would win, he'll just split the Republican vote the way Ralph Nader split the Democratic vote in 2000, allowing the Democratic candidate the garner even more Electoral College votes. Trump running as an independent would guarantee a Democratic victory and tear the Republican Party apart. I hope it happens. The Republican Party needs a reboot.I think you're right about that, which is why I tend not to believe the stories about the GOP planning on doing a 3rd party candidate end-run around Trump if he gets the nomination. They know that it'll rip the party apart, and they're more interested in maintaining power than they are in ideological purity (though they prefer ideological purity to reality), so they won't block Trump if he gets the nomination. What worries me are the idiots on the Dem side who are pledging that if "they're" candidate doesn't get the nomination, they'll write that candidate in. Its most likely just talk, after all the PUMAs (Party Unity My Ass) were supposed to write Hillary's name in on the ballot back in '08. That turned out to be all talk, of course, but a 3rd party run by Trump could inspire a significant number of "Bittercrats" to write in their candidate as opposed to voting for the eventual nominee. Throw in some voting "irregularities" caused by faulty machines and various voter suppression efforts and we could wind up with Cruz in the White House. Which would be just as bad, if not worse, than Trump. I agree. The Repubs would have to be crazier than I think they are (and that's they are pretty darn crazy) to try a 3rd party candidacy against their own nominee (if Trump wins on the 1st ballot). It is starting to look like Trump MUST win on the 1st ballot, however, to win at all. (Cruz has, so far, out maneuvered Trump, profoundly in addressing delegate selection. Those who are bound to vote for Trump on the 1st ballot, will probably not all vote for him on subsequent ballots.) I think that the probability of Cruz being a force for the destruction of humanistic and progressive values is higher than it is for Trump. (though I could be wrong) Thus (and it gives me a sick feeling to say this) I am rooting for Trump to win on the 1st ballot.
But the scenario I originally presented was not if-Trump-wins-the-Repub-nomination, it was if-Trump-did-NOT-win-the-nomination, and then went on to run a 3rd party candidacy on his own.
But the scenario I originally presented was not if-Trump-wins-the-Repub-nomination, it was if-Trump-did-NOT-win-the-nomination, and then went on to run a 3rd party candidacy on his own.Problem is, Trump's still the odds on favorite to win the GOP nomination.
But the scenario I originally presented was not if-Trump-wins-the-Repub-nomination, it was if-Trump-did-NOT-win-the-nomination, and then went on to run a 3rd party candidacy on his own.Problem is, Trump's still the odds on favorite to win the GOP nomination. I am rooting (vomit) for Trump to win (because I know that I hate Cruz's policies). But I think, with Trump's very late attempts to secure delegates (outside of just getting primary votes) he is in jeopardy of not reaching 1237 delegates for the 1st round of voting at the national convention. And if he does not, he is in even greater jeopardy of not winning the nomination, at all. But yeah, I would still say the odds are with Trump, but I wouldn't put his odds as high as I would have a few month's ago. I did not recognize, then, that Trump would have been so managerially inadequate in putting in place an organization that would shepherd and support his followers throughout the local and state primary conventions.
Historically speaking, the Republican candidate who loses Iowa, but wins New Hampshire is the overwhelming favorite to get the nomination. The few candidates who’ve gotten the nomination by winning IA, but losing NH, or losing both of those contests, who’ve gotten the nomination, haven’t won the election. Sure, things could wind up differently, but the odds are against it. And if Trump’s a strong contender for the nomination, but the party hands it to Kaisch or Romney, then all hell is going to break loose.