Trump = 384
Non-Trump = 508
(I’ll update after the Ides of March).
Trump = 458
Non-Trump = 584
(Yesterday, Munchken-Hands, was down 124 to all Non-Munchken-Hands. Today he is down 126. Not much change. But beware the 15th of March.)
Trump = 458 Non-Trump = 584 (Yesterday, Munchken-Hands, was down 124 to all Non-Munchken-Hands. Today he is down 126. Not much change. But beware the 15th of March.)Do you mean the Ides of March, Julius Caesar? Scary!
Do you mean the Ides of March, Julius Caesar? Scary!Yes, just a rough reference to the bad things that can happen in the middle of March. The only actual assassination that I foresee, is on that of the continued candidacy of Marco Rubio (not Marco, just his candidacy). Et tu, TrusTed? (Trump, thus, wins Florida and his chances of an outright win of the nomination continue to increase.)
Trump = 691
Non-Trump (excluding 22 delegates assigned as uncommitted) = 743
Trump is now down, only 52 delegates vs. every other current and previous candidates COMBINED. From here out, only Trump, Cruz and Kasich can pick up assigned delegates.
Theoretically he could go into the Convention with more delegates than all of his current and previous opponents, COMBINED, and still not win the nomination on the first ballot (i.e., he could have less than 1237 delegates voting for him). However, since he is the consummate artist of the con, er, I mean deal, he should be able to win on a 2nd ballot.
If Trump wins much less than 500 of the remaining delegates to be won (and this is still possible), I CAN see a plausible way that his nomination could be undermined (but, at this point, it is a stretch).
Trump = 739
Non-Trump (excluding 9 delegates assigned as uncommitted) = 789
(source politico.com)
delegates remaining 944 (I’m not sure of this #, as in counting the remaining delegates of individual primaries on another site, I got 830)
Trump reduced his trailing of all non-Trump assigned delegates, but not by much. Were he to win half of the remaining 944? delegates, he would have 1216. In that case, if the rule, as publicized, stands, that assigned delegates must vote for their candidate, in the 1st round, Trump would need 21 of the uncommitted delegates to vote for him in the 1st round, to win outright.
Anti-Trumpers, must hope that Cruz and Kasich win more than half of the remaining delegates, in order to have a decent chance of forcing a 2nd round. OR, they must use &/or change the rules, in some way, as to undermine the delegate count that appears to be assigned to Trump.
I think the interesting thing here is that none of this matters. The average voting Republican, I venture to guess, doesn’t care one bit about delegates or first/second ballets etc. They see a number on the news, and it’s bigger than the numbers for Cruz and Kasich, and that’s the end of it. If Trump doesn’t get the nomination, it’s gonna get real fun real quick. And what would be doubly ironic would be if the state that the RNC convention is in is a concealed carry state!
I think the interesting thing here is that none of this matters. The average voting Republican, I venture to guess, doesn't care one bit about delegates or first/second ballets etc. They see a number on the news, and it's bigger than the numbers for Cruz and Kasich, and that's the end of it. If Trump doesn't get the nomination, it's gonna get real fun real quick. And what would be doubly ironic would be if the state that the RNC convention is in is a concealed carry state!What interests me is trying to foresee the likelihood of a national Repub convention that requires more than the 1st ballot. At this point, I would put the odds at slightly better than 50/50. But we probably won't have a real clear picture until after the final primaries on June 7th. I still think Trump will ultimately come out on top, either way, but it is not a sure thing.
Trump = 747
Non-Trump = 870
(source politico.com)
delegates remaining 882
I think these numbers are rough and subject to change. Different sites have different counts. Also, I think that delegate numbers can change somewhat at State Conventions. (e.g., Cruz wound up getting more delegates than Trump out of Louisiana even though Trump won the primary vote). Cruz has also gone after some unbound delegates, apparently with some success.
Anyway, Trump has gone through a bad spell since I posted a count on March 23rd. He is still in the driver’s seat, but has recently been driving like a drunk on Ambien. He needs to make a big comeback (and probably will) in the upcoming NE primaries. If he is not within a 100 delegates of 1237 by the National Convention, he may very well not win in the 1st round of voting. Then his chances of winning the nomination go way down.
Trump should be trying to secure as many loyal delegates as possible on the Rules Committee for the National Convention. (Cruz is already doing this.)
Cruz’s strengths: 1) He is very skilled at political organization and maneuverings. 2) He IS NOT Donald Trump.
Cruz’s weakness: He IS Ted Cruz.