Here’s what I think.
On both sides, I expect there will be a high turnout, and for the Republicans a record breaking turnout.
What the effect of this may be:
For the Democrats:
Bernie will be competitive with Hillary. But he really needs to win, as this, along with his expected win in New Hampshire could give him the momentum to appear viable as a nominee to some voters. This is particularly important for Bernie with black voters, I think, because he is trailing badly in that demographic. But also, generally, an Iowa win would give him a chance to be viewed as a serious potential candidate in the longer haul. Otherwise, only winning in New Hampshire, will probably not be enough for him to gain enough on Hillary in enough subsequent primaries. (But most likely, in Iowa, Bernie will be close, but no cigar.)
For the Republicans:
Trump will win in Iowa. What is more interesting to me, is how well will Rubio (as the, seemingly, only 'establishment-like" candidate that is getting any traction) do? If he breaks, say 15%, that could give him momentum to improve on his current prospects in New Hampshire. Rubio (or some establishment-like candidate) really needs to firmly take the lead amongst the remaining candidates of that ilk. Because if establishment oriented voters remain divided amongst the remaining candidates, Trump’s air of dominance will go virtually uncontested long enough, that he will be assumed to be the inevitable nominee.
But, who knows? Maybe there will be some surprises.
Yeah, like I said Tim, (coming over from your invite from the other thread) I got 2 horses in this race.
I have no idea what’s gonna happen tomorrow. As long as Bernie and/or Donald wins I’m happy.
Yeah, like I said Tim, (coming over from your invite from the other thread) I got 2 horses in this race. I have no idea what's gonna happen tomorrow. As long as Bernie and/or Donald wins I'm happy.Then you will be happy. And you have an outside chance of being doubly happy.
Yeah, like I said Tim, (coming over from your invite from the other thread) I got 2 horses in this race. I have no idea what's gonna happen tomorrow. As long as Bernie and/or Donald wins I'm happy.Then you will be happy. And you have an outside chance of being doubly happy. Yeah, but my actual real money is on Bernie. It's really driving me crazy that the media is comparing his campaign to H Dean's from 04. When in fact his campaign could turn out be a complete repeat of Obama's in 08. Most definitely. So it will be interesting to see Voter turnout for tomorrow in general. If people in general are voting in good numbers, I think Bern's got a good chance. If the polls are lackadaisical...then uh oh!
Yeah, like I said Tim, (coming over from your invite from the other thread) I got 2 horses in this race. I have no idea what's gonna happen tomorrow. As long as Bernie and/or Donald wins I'm happy.Then you will be happy. And you have an outside chance of being doubly happy. Yeah, but my actual real money is on Bernie. It's really driving me crazy that the media is comparing his campaign to H Dean's from 04. When in fact his campaign could turn out be a complete repeat of Obama's in 08. Most definitely. So it will be interesting to see Voter turnout for tomorrow in general. If people in general are voting in good numbers, I think Bern's got a good chance. If the polls are lackadaisical...then uh oh! The "experts" seem to agree that the higher the turnout, the better the prospects for Bernie. And Bernie is an insurgent, so to speak, as was Obama. But Bernie is facing a more experienced and wary candidate than Obama was in '08 although it is still Hillary. And while Bernie has some ancillary advantages, perhaps, over Obama '08, he cannot match (no one who is in the race can) Obama's ability to inspire supporters rhetorically. Meanwhile, Hillary is aligning herself with Obama's policies, and this may have the effect of holding on to voters who supported and still do support Obama. What Bernie has done so far is amazing, in itself. If he actually wins tomorrow, I think that he must be considered seriously as a prospective nominee.
But Bernie is facing a more experienced and wary candidate than Obama was in '08 although it is still Hillary.I don't know about that. There are some who are criticizing how she let Bernie get up on her thus far. You think she would have learned from before.
And while Bernie has some ancillary advantages, perhaps, over Obama '08, he cannot match (no one who is in the race can) Obama's ability to inspire supporters rhetorically.You'd have to be specific about those "ancillary" advantages....you mean race? Maybe...I don't know. In my opinion he has a great disadvantage compared to Obama in 08. Obama rode in on a wave of Anti-Bush/Conservative sentiment. The fickle American political pendulum has swung again to a degree. Lotta hope...little change. At least in perception partly.
Meanwhile, Hillary is aligning herself with Obama's policies, and this may have the effect of holding on to voters who supported and still do support Obama.I don't know. I fit that bill and I'd rather have Trump than Clinton. Hell I'd take 8 more years of Obama over Bernie.
What Bernie has done so far is amazing, in itself. If he actually wins tomorrow, I think that he must be considered seriously as a prospective nominee.We'll see.
Re: ancillary advantages of Bernie '16 vs. Obama ‘08: No I wasn’t thinking race. I was thinking things like amount of experience in office and a long public record of consistency on his main issues. I agree that Obama had the advantage of the anti-"W’ sentiment, but, then Bernie has the anti-oligarchy sentiment.
I love President Obama. I am glad for him that he is getting out soon.
Re: ancillary advantages of Bernie '16 vs. Obama '08: No I wasn't thinking race. I was thinking things like amount of experience in office and a long public record of consistency on his main issues. I agree that Obama had the advantage of the anti-"W' sentiment, but, then Bernie has the anti-oligarchy sentiment. I love President Obama. I am glad for him that he is getting out soon.Ok gotcha.
It surprised me that Trump lost. I thought that the concerted attacks by virtually all of Cruz’s opponents, in the final weeks, would neutralize Cruz’s advantage with evangelicals. What I didn’t consider, is that Cruz’s ground organization was better than anyone else’s in the Republican field, and this may have been why they were all attacking him in concert.
I am happy for Bernie who won the battle, hands down, of exceeding expectations, although he technically lost the Primary by a microscopic margin.
It surprised me that Trump lost. I thought that the concerted attacks by virtually all of Cruz's opponents, in the final weeks, would neutralize Cruz's advantage with evangelicals. What I didn't consider, is that Cruz's ground organization was better than anyone else's in the Republican field, and this may have been why they were all attacking him in concert. I am happy for Bernie who won the battle, hands down, of exceeding expectations, although he technically lost the Primary by a microscopic margin.So far, nobody has "lost" and nobody has "won". We have 9 months till the election--9 months of torture: empty speculations and intolerable speeches.
It surprised me that Trump lost. I thought that the concerted attacks by virtually all of Cruz's opponents, in the final weeks, would neutralize Cruz's advantage with evangelicals. What I didn't consider, is that Cruz's ground organization was better than anyone else's in the Republican field, and this may have been why they were all attacking him in concert. I am happy for Bernie who won the battle, hands down, of exceeding expectations, although he technically lost the Primary by a microscopic margin.So far, nobody has "lost" and nobody has "won". We have 9 months till the election--9 months of torture: empty speculations and intolerable speeches. When you look at it that way, (and it seems to be a legitimate perspective) we should just all stick our heads in the sand and hope for the best. Meanwhile those who are involved in the process determine what we will find we pull our heads out.