Coronavirus

General Discussion
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The population of the U.S. was ca. 290,810,000 in 2003, and in that year, approximately 2,419,900 deaths occurred in total, giving a crude death (mortality) rate of 832 deaths per 100,000. As of 2020, the CIA estimates the U.S. crude death will be 8.3 per 1,000, while it estimates that the global rate will be 7.7 per 1,000.

Of the roughly 150,000 people who die each day across the globe, about two thirds—100,000 per day—die of age-related causes. In industrialized nations, the proportion is much higher, reaching 90%.


Best I can tell the .oo83 % crude death rate does not factor in the coronavirus. So based on a population of 360 million we should see, in a normal year, something less than three million deaths, 90% of which should be older people. In other words we should expect to see about 2.7 million older people die in 2020.

 

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Dismissed based on anecdotal information. -- green
I used to get in to arguments about "burden of proof", but it's such a common thing, you can google it if you want. Any discussion about it with you would be a waste of time.
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We tend to hold positions of Paramedics and Fire Fighters in high regard. When people that we hold in esteem, espouse shit, some other naïve people are going to believe that shit. So I care when otherwise reasonable people evangelize shit lies, because I think that such lies are destructive to society.

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questionable numbers, illogic.

In 2019 there were 2.4 million total deaths. I don’t think that 90% of those were old people. But even if it were, that would have been less than 2 million deaths of old people.

So if we have 2.7 million old people die, this year (2020), where did that extra 800,000 dead old people come from?

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What a useless post
why do keep talking about yourself?
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The COVID-19, will go down in history, I imagine, as the “T rump Pandemic” because his inadequacy led to its not being controlled and to it’s laying the groundwork for the T rump Recession.

Now the Trumpublicans want to spend a $ trillion (doubling our already record national deficit) in a play that is supposed to shore up the economy, but which does nothing to address the underlying cause of the recession, which is the T rump Pandemic closing down the economy.

The $ Trillion could just be a waste. The Feds dropped interest rates a Full point, with no effect on the economy. Because it did nothing to change the T rump Pandemic. So we could double our record national deficit without having any real impact.

Fix the T rump Pandemic first if you want to fix the T rump Recession.

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I went in to my county gov’t job because they are incapable of making decisions and taking actions, despite having all the infrastructure needed for telecommuting. Anyway, the city had that eerie, opening scene of an apocalyptic movie, feel to it.

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Yes, ghost-towns are really full of ghosts. It’s disconcerting. You can imagine traffic and shoppers, but they’re not there!

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This Louisiana church is breaking all the rules

On Tuesday night, just before the police arrived, Pastor Tony Spell stood in the pulpit of his Louisiana church and delivered a message to hundreds of worshipers before him and fellow believers around the world. "I just want to encourage the religious world tonight, Amen!," Spell said in a sing-song voice, building to the crest of his sermon. "Keep going to church! Keep on worshiping God! ... The church is a hospital for the sick! It's a place of healing for the brokenhearted!" In holding services for so many followers at his Life Tabernacle Church in Baton Rouge, Spell defied an emergency order by Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards banning public or private gatherings with more than 50 people to stop the spread of Covid-19.

“I feel the Covid-19 scare is politically motivated,” Spell told CNN. He estimated his church hosted about 300 people for Tuesday’s service.
As the deadly pandemic spreads, houses of worship around the world – from the Vatican to storefront mosques – have closed their doors. But a few like Spell defiantly refuse, arguing that they have a right to worship as they please, and that, with fears of contagion upending our daily lives, we need divine aid and prayer now more than ever.

Spell said his church held a typical service Tuesday evening. There was singing and dancing and slaying of the spirit, even the laying on of hands to heal the sick. Spell said he is not opposed to doctors, but says members of his congregation have been healed of AIDS-HIV and even cancer.

“The Bible tells us to lay hands on the sick and they shall recover and will continue to do that without the fear of the spread of any virus,” Spell said.


Slaying of the spirit? Watch them get through this with no infections.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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We tend to hold positions of Paramedics and Fire Fighters in high regard. When people that we hold in esteem, espouse shit, some other naïve people are going to believe that shit. So I care when otherwise reasonable people evangelize shit lies, because I think that such lies are destructive to society.
Maybe some people would believe it just because of some hero worship, but I doubt it. Also it's debatable that first responders are "reasonable" and the public rarely takes advice from them even in the best of times.
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We sure take help from them (Firemen & EMT’s) in the worst of times. And they are rational enough to follow a set of practices that save people’s lives. But clearly, it does not make them immune to becoming dumbass T rump patsies.

My money would be on that LA Church getting a cluster of T rump Pandemic Virus, in a few weeks, if they keep up their large crowds of worshippers, regularly.

 

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In 2019 there were 2.4 million total deaths. I don’t think that 90% of those were old people. But even if it were, that would have been less than 2 million deaths of old people.

So if we have 2.7 million old people die, this year (2020), where did that extra 800,000 dead old people come from?


I presented the numbers shown on Wiki. I don’t know where your numbers came from. I would have expected the population number and the total deaths number to have grown some from 2003 to 2019; your figures indicate it didn’t. The 90% number is, according to Wiki, from the CIA Factbook.

I have not seen a current number for the US population other than the 360 million often presented by the media. Based on that estimate, which I believe is probably more correct than a lower official number because of our undocumented residents, and using the .83% rate we would expect 2,988,000 deaths in 2020 if it were a normal year. Using the 90% rate we would expect 2,689,000 of those deaths to be older people.

I presented these numbers so that we can put the expected deaths from the corona virus in perspective. Today it is reported that 150 people in the US have died from the virus. For calculation purposes let us assume that all these deaths occurred in one month. If we think that the number will double every month, then we could expect that over 12 months we could have about 320,000 deaths from the virus. Notice that this would be about 12 % of the total number of deaths of older people and about 10.7 % of all US deaths.

I doubt that we have any way to estimate how many of those dying from the virus would have died from something else or how many would not have died except for getting the virus. We will also probably never know how many of the virus related deaths would have occurred over the next few years but were “hurried” into 2020.

We may find that the attention we now pay to infectious diseases among older people will lead to better practices. Notice that current thinking is that doctors and other healthcare workers in Washington State entering multiple nursing facilities during normal working routines were the vectors for the virus.

While the sickness and deaths which have occurred and will occur are terrible, especially for the families of the victims, the numbers clearly show this is nowhere near the same level of the 1918 flu or any plague and should not give rise to the panic being promoted by the media.

A lady who has multiple degrees in public health, has worked in the field for at least three decades and has taught infection control at the national level has explained it to me like this: With no “herd immunity”, infectious diseases can be spread A to B to C. When B recovers and has immunity, A2 to B to C2 doesn’t happen. It is similar to putting control rods into a reactor, the transmission chain is broken and the reaction is stopped.

China is now reporting no new cases. This is after about a 6 or 7 month long struggle with the virus. If we extrapolate their experience to the US we might expect no new cases in July or August.

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But a few like Spell defiantly refuse, arguing that they have a right to worship as they please, and that, with fears of contagion upending our daily lives, we need divine aid and prayer now more than ever.
He is right on both counts. He also has the right to die, but not to cause or contribute to the death of others. Another idiot. Lock him up!.
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Illogic, you seem to be arranging stats in such a way as to tell us that the old people who will die from COVID-19 this year, would have died anyway.

I have heard disjointed presentations of “facts” over the years that DENY evolution, climate change, illness caused by tobacco, the roundness of the Earth, vaccines that don’t cause autism, and T rump’s inadequacy. These arguments are often posed by persons who seem so self-righteous, so self-assured, so pretentiously logical.

But the T rump Pandemic Virus will not bow to such organizations of alternate facts. It will kill Americans THIS year before their time would have otherwise been up. What percent? We don’t know that yet, as much as we might play with assumptions about stats.

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It’s going to kill our economy too. All because we rather build Luxury Cruise Ships - that build up our defenses against the new viruses we knew were coming.

It’s utter panic and chaos - over a thing everyone with any brains and a bit of intellectual honesty knew was destined to happen. Hell just wait for some exotic for of botulism to start circulating. Tragedy is the illogics of this world are so f’n full of their own sense of superiority on the one hand, but has absolutely no conception of the various chains of cascading consequences owe have let loose.

But, time is on our side, if not on mine, and reality will also have its way with the illogics of our world soon enough.

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The Israelis just came up with a method for quicker mass testing. The devised a way to group test 64 people at a time. In a population that is not riddled with infection, often times, the 64 person group test will be negative, meaning those 64 people don’t need to be tested individually. (If the group test is positive, THEN they test the individuals.)

We are living in a world, NOW, in which any beautiful healthy person you come in to contact with could be carrying and passing on the T rump Pandemic Virus. (Some ugly ones too.)

Would it not be to our advantage, if we AND they, could know which of the people, we come in contact with, are carriers?

Instead of throwing $trillions down the drain to pay for a closed economy, wouldn’t it be more cost effective to determine who the stealth transmitters of the virus are, and sequester them, instead of having to sequester our entire economy instead? OUR ECONOMY IS SHUT DOWN BECAUSE WE DON’T KNOW WHO IS CARRYING THE T RUMP PANDEMIC VIRUS, SO WE ACT AS IF EVERYONE HAS IT.

If anyone wants the economy to open up, throwing trillions of $$ at it won’t do it. OTOH, dealing effectively with the T rump Pandemic Virus will allow the economy to open shop again. Dealing effectively means finding out who is transmitting the virus and stopping them.

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I think it would be better to know, but the dotard cut the CDC down to a skeleton, getting rid of educated/knowledgeable experts concerning pandemics, and refused test kits from WHO, saying, “No our people will make our own… If we need them and we don’t need them”. He’s a stupid idiot who will not only kill most U.S. citizens, but maybe also himself, He Who Is Not Worth His Name, Moscow Mitch, and of his other cronies, but he doesn’t seem to care.

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I see our “evil empire” being similar to storm troopers. When you look at thousands of them standing at attention, weapons ready, they look menacing, but you get one of them in a fight, and they can’t figure out how to shoot. It takes a massive effort for them to make the actually deadly weapons, like a death star, and even those have vulnerabilities.

Not so sure about your conclusion though. Democracy is pretty fragile too.

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Illogic, you seem to be arranging stats in such a way as to tell us that the old people who will die from COVID-19 this year, would have died anyway.
No, I just tried to put the numbers in some perspective.
It will kill Americans THIS year before their time would have otherwise been up. What percent? We don’t know that yet, as much as we might play with assumptions about stats.
I believe I said essentially the same thing. Deaths doubling every month for a year would be a worst case, but the China stats show that is not likely. With the measures in place now, we could get a no-new-infections month by July or August.

What the Feds and the governors of New York and California (and others) are worried about is not so much a spike in the death rate among old folks as it is the potential for our hospitals to be overwhelmed and having deaths among other age groups. Notice that the hospitals are not overwhelmed yet. I think they’re looking for a spike in a month or two.

What the medical community wants to do is to treat those with severe symptoms in the hospital, not have them try to recover at home. The big problem is infected people recovering at home may infect others. They’re going to have to figure out a different protocol.

I went to the grocery store yesterday, early morning. No paper products, no bleach, no TV type dinners or those that take minimal cooking and no ice cream. I understand some of the shortages. Many people don’t cook much and with kids at home they want easy-fix foods. But toilet paper and ice cream?

I think our biggest problem now is fear and the media, especially those with a political agenda, are hyping it. Except for younger people who tend to believe they are invincible and don’t fear anything other than missing a text.

 

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I think our biggest problem now is fear and the media, especially those with a political agenda, are hyping it.
Fundamental ignorance, along with no critical thinking skills, and zero appreciation for Earth as a organism - are at the roots of media ability to manipulate the hordes