ATM the official # of USA deaths is 19. (I suspect that number is low, because I suspect that there have been COVID-19 deaths that were not attributed to COVID-19. But be that as it may.)
The Surgeon General told us that “If we had massive numbers of cases (of people with COVID-19 in their system) we would be seeing more deaths.”
Here is something closer to the truth: Assuming there are really, only 19 deaths, from COVID-19, so far. IF the death rate is 3% (MUCH MUCH higher than the T rumpers are saying it is), then yes, the denominator (the number of people who have the virus) is “relatively” low. Just do the math. 19 is 3% of what number? Then we can expect, what?, about 600 people have the virus in the USA today. That’s not so bad. Except 3% is pretty deadly, esp if you are in that 3%.
But what if they are right that the death rate is less than or equal to no more than 1%? In that case, the denominator is as at least 1900 cases in the USA, right now.
The T rumpers can’t do the math both ways and they cannot claim both of these things at the same time: 1) that the disease is not very deadly and 2) it has been controlled and there has been little spread. What pathetically little data that we have so far, already, contradicts that both can be simultaneously true.
We aren’t being told the truth. Have you looked at Italy’s numbers? Go back to page 2 and the John Hopkins link for the numbers. Either Italy has terrible health care facilities in which to treat people with the illness or we are being terribly lied to. The other thing is, the U.S. government isn’t allowing everyone to be tested either, so the numbers are totally wrong and I suspect the numbers are more widespread and the virus is all around us. I suspect when I go back to work, after spending quite a bit of my vacation as a staycation, I will find it right there too, but in mild forms. People will come to Hellmart thinking that all they have is a cold or they need to pick up that antiviral med their doctor Rx them, because they were Dx with the flu instead of being tested. I don’t know what the death rate really is, but I do believe it’s more widespread than they are letting on, because the government is worried they’ll lose control of U.S. citizens who want to be able to walk/travel around wherever they want. They know the problem (behaviour of U.S. citizens) might be worse if they do like other countries and lock down areas of the U.S. Many will scream, “We won’t go for that!” Plus, the dotard sees $$$ and he loves that, plus power and control. He doesn’t want people to be tested because then they might not go to work, especially while waiting for test results. Thus, the spread is worse than John Hopkins is reporting or can report, due to lack of testing. We can’t blame John Hopkins entirely, because it’s not all their fault. Right now though, the virus is all over the world, except in the Arctic, Antarctica, parts of Russia (which maybe a lie too), Alaska, and inner Africa (questionable due to their lack of healthcare facilities).
So worldwide, the death rate compared to the total # of confirmed people with the virus, is well OVER 3%. But it is likely that the # of confirmed cases in the world is far higher than the 109,000 identified so far.
So without adequate massive #'s of people tested, we can only guess. Which is it? More deadly or More widespread? We don’t know.
BUT IT CANNOT BE BOTH, ONLY 109,000 of people in the world with the virus, AND at the same time, not very deadly. No. Can’t be both.
IF not everyone who is sick and/or dies from is tested, then yes, it can be both. If a person with mild symptoms isn’t tested, then we missed a person, which would bring the number up and if a person dies and the cause of death is guessed at and they aren’t tested for the virus, then the death rate is actually higher. Thus, it is both.
BTW, I just used a calculator and multiplied 109,835 by .03 (which is 3%) and it comes to 3,295.05. So yes, the John Hopkins world figure is indeed approximately 3% or rather slightly over, but if we were to do the 3.4% then the numbers would be even closer to their figure. So, I don’t know where your rant is coming from? Still, I do think it is more widespread than is being reported due to the fact that not everyone is being tested. In fact, some people are being missed, especially in the U.S., because the dotard and his cronies are so stupid.
Mriana said; I do think it is more widespread than is being reported due to the fact that not everyone is being tested
@ 3.4% = 3000+ infections and having tested maybe 5% of the symptomatic population, the numbers of infections will become very worrysome in a hurry. This thing crept up on us and we were hopelessly unprepared to deal with anything like that.
Exactly! Even WHO said the world is unprepared for this virus. That is the problem and that’s not even counting the people who are asymptomatic also.
I look at the link we have in this thread (twice now), JAMA, NEJM, CDC, and WHO to what is happening, besides read articles and listen to local news that tells us how many confirmed cases we have. There is one in Kansas and one in the St. Louis area, which is rather too close for comfort. There is no telling where all these people have been and where the people they’ve been in contact with have been. All I know is the asymptomatic individuals can also pass the virus on too, according to at least one of the various links I take serious, if not all of them.
Apparently, Politicus agrees with me. We aren’t getting all the numbers because the dotard is suppressing them. Worse than a Communist country. At least China was more forthcoming with information about this virus, unlike the dotard who refuses to even test Ted Cruz. The dotard is going to kill a lot of people with his lies and because he won’t even test postmortem we’ll never know what people die of because of his refusal to do what he’s supposed to do. The number of cases is higher and possibly the deaths too. In reality, my guess is, we look a lot like Europe, but because the dotard is suppressing information by refusing to test, we’ll never know.
Trump is trying to hold the number of coronavirus cases down by not providing an adequate number of test kits so that people can be tested. If people can’t be tested, they also can’t be added to the number of confirmed cases in the United States.
I wonder if there is a more cynical reason for slow response to a disease that kills mainly old and immune compromised individuals.
The more old people die, the better the economy. Think of all the Social Security and Medicare savings. Think of all the money private insurances save for medical expense pay-outs.
I don’t think it would be better for psychological health though. Many of the older people and people with compromised immune systems are people’s mothers/(great)grandmothers, fathers/(great)grandfathers, brothers, sisters, even children (yes, a very small percentage of immunocompromised kids can die from it)… The dotard is a murderer, not just Latinos he’s locked up, but the more people who die from the COVID-19 due to his incompantacy or lack of empathy makes him more so a murderer.
Mriana, My “rant” is in response to the happy talk from the white house t rump kissers portrayal of the death rate as being closer to the death rate of the seasonal flu.
They can only make that claim by assuming that the number of identified infected people is much lower than the real number of infected people. (They can only make that assumption because we don’t have real numbers, due to lack of adequate testing.) But what they do is blow past their own arithmetical assumption that the disease is covertly widespread, so that they can focus on their talking point that the disease doesn’t have a very high death rate.
So my “rant” is that IF they make the assumption that allows them to minimize the likely death rate from COVID-19, they must ALSO admit that the covert rate of existing infections is HIGH.
Perhaps both the actual #'s of infected and the actual death rate is somewhere in the middle of possible assumptions. But it cannot be true that the death rate is minimal unless the # of ppl with covert infections is HIGH (much higher than has yet been identified).
These days, we must derive the truth from the lies, however we can.
And Write, I have been implying all along that there could be purposeful negligence going on, due to the benefits of letting old people die off.
OR it could be the simple incompetence of govt programs that have been taken over to be further instruments which are primarily to function to get T rump re-elected. For example, we used to have a Dept of Justice that actually stood for the rule of law. No longer. It is now just another T rump campaign division. We used to have a Center for Disease Control that was respected the world over. Now it has become another joke campaign division for T rump.
@Timb I didn’t tell you to calm down like many people have told me to do when I ranting about the dotard and his cronies’ response (or rather lack thereof) to the COVID-19. They don’t care if people die. Ted Cruz, who’s 49, maybe fine, if he has it (he can’t get a test), but Bernie Sanders could die from it. Do they care? No they don’t, but what purpose will it serve if we all go ranting? However, I do suspect that the dotard and his cronies are hoping that the nation is too sick to vote come November and then they all get to stay in office while the dotard becomes a dic[tator].
Even so I still suspect that, as far as the virus goes, we actually look more like Europe. I get ranting about the inaction of the government, but the numbers of the CDC… I’m not sure if that’s their fault when the dotard is trying to suppress the number of people who are sick with the virus.
Oh and please don’t think I’m knocking you two. AT lease you are discussing it and being rational!
What I’m noticing is the amazing lack of discussion around here. I mean how many million adults live in this country. There aren’t that many rational discussion forum out there. It’s always seemed very sad to me. Like the local caucus, dying on the vine.
But it’s okay Xain, let me tell you it’s possible to totally lose faith in the future, yet live a meaningful today. Take my word for it.
TimB said; And Write, I have been implying all along that there could be purposeful negligence going on, due to the benefits of letting old people die off.
And duly noted....
This would be the Libertarian crowd, who espouse, “live and let die” as a result of natural selection. Of course the hypocrite diabetics take their insulin at regular intervals like everybody else…
