A new world in the making

Politics and Social Issues
1

Found on the French net, goggle translated

We must no longer reason on outdated models, while the world is in full reconfiguration.

Putin’s goal is to reconstitute the Russian empire.

In fact, we have two totalitarian empires, Russia and China, and an empire that could take a similar path, the USA.

For them, international politics has returned to the era of empires.

For these three empires, their problem is to define their margins by reciprocal concessions, within the framework of power relations and limited confrontations.

There are no more allies, there are colonies and vassals.

In this scheme, Trump could concede Taiwan to China.

And Europe?

None of the three powers wants it. They prefer independent countries, divided and turned into vassals at will.

They want bilateral relations with each European state, in a balance of power that would be favorable to them. In this scheme, European states are opposed to each other and vulnerable.

In the 19th century, European states built trading posts, relying heavily on local leaders whom they opposed to their neighbors. When their position was strong enough, they got rid of their allies and attacked the next ones.

When Africa was conquered, they divided it up by treaty.

Berlin conference

Ukraine would be divided. A Russian puppet would be put at its head, but American economic interests would be shared.

On January 1, 2022, NATO was in a cerebral coma, it was Putin who woke it up. Trump will finish it off.

We need a European defense, which requires a common foreign policy.

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Putin is insane, it’ll never happen, destruction is all he’s bringing to Russian.

Since the invasion, Russia’s economy has relied on a unique combination of factors: record hydrocarbon export revenues, a market-oriented economic structure, a robust banking system, strict centralized governance, and a lack of public consensus requirements. Such conditions are exceptional, even among authoritarian regimes, making the Kremlin’s economic model an anomaly rather than a replicable template for success. The foundations of this strategy are showing signs of erosion. The question is not if the cracks will spread, but how—and when—they will fundamentally reshape the Kremlin’s capacity to project power and maintain internal stability.
Steam Without Substance…

On the physical reality side of these B.D.G’s. that the powerful are so addicted to, there’s the physical reality of this planet that we depend on for everything.

It’s all about trajectories

Aug 15, 2024 #TED #TEDTalks

We’re nearly halfway through the 2020s, dubbed the most decisive decade for action on climate change.
Where exactly do things stand?

Climate impact scholar Johan Rockström offers the most up-to-date scientific assessment of the state of the planet and explains what must be done to preserve Earth’s resilience to human pressure.

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That’s very interesting and true, but I am not sure that what you are telling about climate change is in direct relationship with the topic as introduced?

Even if you mean that all these squabbles are meaningless given what’s happening to earth?

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That sort of underscores my constant complain that we are oblivious to Earth - and that that is very self destructive, so worth harping on.

Reconstitute an empire in rubble, how is that going to be rebuilt in the coming climate reality of the next decades?

How many of these global moves like the China’s Belt and Road Initiative which is in response to dealing with some problems caused by climate changes impacts, but in such a thoughtless manner that it’ll triggering more environmental and atmospheric problems than it can help resolve.
This sort of thing is echoed all over.

Heck the civil wars and refugee crisis are driven by drought and famines and shortages, directly resulting from manmade global warming’s physical cascading consequences, flood right into political consequences.

And how can people make grand economic plans decades out, while ignoring the no longer avoidable weather related changes that are coming at us? It’s no longer in the coming decades, we’re talking now, in the coming years.

Yet we have a global mentality that Taxes are bad, investing in maintenance is pain, and putting Earth on equal footing with our economy is krap, trusting experts to guide our decisions is out, empire building is what we continue squandering our resources on.

So I wasn’t trying to be disrespectful, I thought I was keeping within the framing of your opening post. Though pointing that out via the underlying stage, more than the players on that stage.

Sorry.

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No worry, what you are saying is interesting and you are right.

In fact, you seem to agree with me and you go a step further.

It is me who must ask you to excuse me.

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Good description of Europe’s dilemma.

A common European policy seems unlikely, given the current disagreements between European nations. But, stranger things have happened. I suspect Europe will try to wait out Trump, hoping that whoever comes next will be more cooperative.

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What if World War III had begun?

Found on French net, goggle translated

World War II officially began on September 1, 1939.

But it was preceded by the remilitarization of the Ruhr, the annexation of Austria, the Treaty of Munich, and the annexation of part of Czechoslovakia, followed by its partition between Germany, Poland, and Hungary, not to mention the Spanish Civil War and the German-Soviet Pact.

Here we have the attacks on Chechnya, Georgia, Armenia, the vassalization of Belarus, the attempted vassalization of Ukraine, the establishment of a foothold in Africa, the Sino-Russian Pact, and the Russo-American Pact in preparation.

We also have interference in various elections, attempts to destabilize various European countries, including Moldova, attacks on submarine cables and oil pipelines, online information warfare, and cyberattacks against our institutions.

We also have Trump and his team behaving as if they were Russian agents.

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It used to simply be prescient,

But give us 60 years of blowing it and here we are.