The chances of us seeing something like Oumuamua are running at annual. They will increase with our detectors.
Yes but we did the math before hand and have done a lot of space observing. The odds of this happening were something like 100-100,000,000:1 in comparison to what we expected to see. Part of attempting to account for it surely must include detritus from other life as it would be hubris to assume we’re alone, correct? Remember, “where is everyone” was Fermi’s reaction to his mathematical expectations, not some country side road account of a flying saucer.
The rarity of the object, at least in comparison to what we expected at the time definitely opens it up for every valid hypothesis. I would be less willing to give Avi Loeb the benefit of the doubt if he wasn’t the only one offering verifiable hypothesis rooted in logic and sound thinking for what we were seeing.
The fact that it sped up at aphelion is evidence of natural inherent propulsion from multiple natural mechanisms.
The only natural process we’re aware of that’ll increase velocity due to being closer to the sun are out gassing comets, there is no evidence of this gas.
The only objects we’ve ever observed that get pushed from light pressure to this degree are man made ones. In fact, we got real excited about an object pretty recently that was demonstrating similar incredibly odd behavior and that’s because it wound up being a staged Saturn-V rocket body from the 60s. (key point: man made)
losing bits off the back of the truck
You’ll need to explain this one. You don’t lose bits off the back of the truck in space, in fact because you’re in a micro-gravity situation anything that breaks off will re-coalesce around the larger object, not be left behind.
Nothing else is possible: It’s been travelling from the direction of Vega, for entirely probabilistic reasons, in the Castor Moving Group for at least a quarter of a million years. Which does not mean it originated there.
If you’re going to try and infer what a civilization with millions of years on us technologically will be doing with near limitless manufacturing potential, that’s where I’m out. We could speculate endlessly, doing what this is doing? If I had to write a story though, it’d be about an alien civilization who put relay probes into orbit, hundreds of thousands of them on similar interstellar orbital passes that came close to the inner planets and scanned them all. This would happen at acceptable intervals, likely in the 50-100 year range as clearly life needs close observation for technological breakouts.
But that’s a story.
Have you heard a good talk with Avi Loeb or read his book? This was the talk back in 2018, not really academic but also better than average “pop-sci” that got me on board with his “good science.” Since then I’ve followed his papers, the competing papers and his responses and I still hold all of his explanations as the best formulated and most plausible.
But that’s not how science works and if you asked me if I think it’s an alien artifact I’m going to say no. It’s still good science though and for me, this is how alien life would/could/should be discovered. Very different from this UAP stuff they’re now looking at.
The biggest problem with this UAP study is now we have to wait for evidence collection with finite resources. If Harvard is going to take on something that people are asking if it’s a pseudo science they need to either be 100% sure there’s some kind of proved hypothesis on the other side or jettison the issue quickly because the facts clearly indicate, not real. The “we’re not using US military sensors” is going to be crippling.
I’m telling you dude, if you dove into this subject you would feel a lot more like me demanding immediate answers and wanting people held accountable for the frenzy or immediate proof shown for these completely unbelievable claims.
This talk from a few days ago is believable, even to people like us because of the context of who he is, what he’s saying and the idea that all the US-politicians and intelligence directors are taking their lead from this guy specifically. But then again people like us understand what we’re being asked to look at and still say, “well this just has to be 100% bullshit.”
Someone has to account for this nonsense.