The Future of Aviation and shipping

For the sake of argument, I’ll accept that we will run out of oil within the next few decades, possibly sooner. That our economy will adapt, although I’m not overly confident that it will.

No oil, no aviation fuel. No commercial jets ? The armed forces will absolutely keep their jets and other vehicles… What is most likely to happen to commercial aviation? Bio/artificial fuels? OR will it just fade away, leaving a huge gap will will be only in part filled by ships, which might include massive solar powered vessels and sleek clippers for many trade goods. Tourism, as a multi billion dollar industry would change radically or die; only the wealthy would have the time to spend weeks or months travelling for pleasure.

I realise this a massive topic, and I find it interesting. I think the interaction of global markets and industries fascinating.

I think that we will not run out of fossil fuels. Not in this century, anyway. I think that innovation and the development of alternative and more environmentally friendly fuels will make fossil fuels become substantially, tho not entirely, obsolete, before that happens. This will require that the sane people of the world regain control from the righties. But even in this darkest part of the night, I think that dawn will come sometime.

Peak oil anyone??

I believed in the idea of peak oil almost 50 yrs ago. Apparently, I was wrong.

Why wrong?

Patrick D:

For the sake of argument, I’ll accept that we will run out of oil within the next few decades, possibly sooner. That our economy will adapt, although I’m not overly confident that it will.

No oil, no aviation fuel. No commercial jets ? The armed forces will absolutely keep their jets and other vehicles… What is most likely to happen to commercial aviation? Bio/artificial fuels? OR will it just fade away, leaving a huge gap will will be only in part filled by ships, which might include massive solar powered vessels and sleek clippers for many trade goods. Tourism, as a multi billion dollar industry would change radically or die; only the wealthy would have the time to spend weeks or months travelling for pleasure.

I realise this a massive topic, and I find it interesting. I think the interaction of global markets and industries fascinating.

 

Lois: Yes it is fascinating. I firmly believe that necessity is the mother of invention. Someone will figure out a workable alternative to fossil fuels if they do start waning to a substantial degree. All those industries would be faced with the potential loss of tremendous amounts of money. In my experience, money talks. Someone will think of something workable to keep the transportation and tourism industries moving. Mark my words.

“Lois: Yes it is fascinating. I firmly believe that necessity is the mother of invention. Someone will figure out a workable alternative to fossil fuels if they do start waning to a substantial degree. All those industries would be faced with the potential loss of tremendous amounts of money. In my experience, money talks. Someone will think of something workable to keep the transportation and tourism industries moving. Mark my words”

 

what fuel will you use to transition to the new source??

After 50 yrs of prediction of peak oil not coming true, and plenty still available, I think that it will not run out after all. Wind and solar power alone are on the verge of becoming economically superior as an energy source to replace much of the world’s dependence on oil. Yes, the world will want more and more energy, but when the real cost of oil is eventually understood by all, it will eventually become a low ranked energy resource.

I think olive oil may have had a heyday as a primary energy resource. Also whale oil. Coal is currently dying a fitful death as a primary energy resource, although lots and lots of coal remains on Earth. I think it is quite possible that the same fate awaits oil.

peak oil is not about running out of oil and this

 

“I think olive oil may have had a heyday as a primary energy resource. Also whale oil”

 

is a joke of a comment

Right now there are potential alternate fuels that could be produce for aircraft that would be economically viable if oil were over $120 per barrel and there were planes and infrastructure in place. But oil per barrel atm is less than 1/2 that, since we are still not requiring the oil producers to pay for the damages that oil and oil production causes.

Eventually, the cost will go above $120 per barrel and stay there, even if the cost of damages is never figured in. Because if the accessible oil becomes more expensive to get out of the earth, even the exploitative pricing will be more than the alternative. From that point, maybe another 30 yrs could be needed to change the infrastructure over to the alternate sustainable fuels.

"After 50 yrs of prediction of peak oil not coming true, and plenty still available, I think that it will not run out after all. "

Yeah, I’m aware of the practice of regularly changing the amount of estimate reserves. I do not believe those claims.

I have to three questions:

(1) The evidence to support your claim.

(2) If there is so much oil left, why then does fracking exist?

(3) Why does the wholesale price of oil fluctuate so often and by so much?

As far as I’m aware , many oil producing nations will not reveal the level of their reserves, so all we have is estimates.

I remain unconvinced that bio fuels are a realistic long term alternative to fossil oil. However, alternatives will have to be found for oil in say fertiliser and plastics.

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/08/02/we-have-way-more-than-53-years-worth-of-oil-left.aspx

  1. Here is an article (5 yrs old but if still valid) that says (53-5) 48 yrs of oil left, at least.

  2. Oil is harder to get to than in the past. But it is still economically very viable, esp. as long as they continue not to have to pay for the damages to our earth, sea, and atmosphere.

  3. Probably multiple answers to this, most of which are a mystery to me, but for example, I think that speculators and traders on futures effect the pricing, oftentimes.

Biofuels are a potential interim source of supplemental energy, at any point, if oil becomes more expensive.

We already have the technology for various sustainable energy production. The world’s infrastructure is based primarily on fossil fuels, but as those become less economically viable, for whatever reason, alternatives will be turned to. So, it is most likely that when that happens, there will still be lots of oil available, but it may well be much less accessible than what is being produced today.

no. Easy oil is over. The equation is EROEI - energy return over energy input. You are going to have to spend more energy (oil) to extract harder to get to oil.

Player: what fuel will you use to transition to the new source??

 

That will be part of human ingenuity and necessary invention. Someone will think of and develop something. With that much money at stake, in fact the whole world economy, it is inevitable.

Scientists will know approximately when fossil fuels will substantially decrease and people will become inventive long before they do. Scientists already have a good idea of when that will be. Somebody will develop something. I’d make a wager on it, but I won’t be around to collect, nor will the person I make the wager with be around to pay up. :wink:

 

Loisl read above

“Scientists will know approximately when fossil fuels will substantially decrease and people will become inventive—”

I think it can be argued that process started some time ago, as soon as renewable energy became a profitable concern.

Australia, with around 300 days of annual sunshine, together with an affluent society has one of the highest uptakes of solar energy in the world. In my state of South Australia, domestic uptake is one in four. This is at least partially because of government subsidies for the infrastructure. Australia is also committed to renewable energy as our main source within the next 20 years. That is also the timeline for the end of new internal combustions cars being used in Australia.

I bought my 5KW Solar panel system system about 2 years ago. The cost to me was $3000 installed. It’s a net input system, meaning my house uses what is produced first. The remainder goes to the grid, for which I’m paid an insulting 15 cents a kwh. The cost of electricity in my state is around 45 cents/ Kwh ; among the most expensive in the world.

My solar panel system saves over 30% a year.

My dad worked for BP for over 40 years, in management. I asked him when I was about 12 (1959) ,how long the oil reserves would last He gave what I think was the official company line at the time: Dad said we had enough oil for A THOUSAND YEARS! I was too young and too gullible to question that statement .

Whereas I don’t think we are in imminent danger of running out of oil, there is no doubt in my mind that there will be drastic shortages within the next 2-3 decades I belive oil WILL be replaced by renewable energy before the middle of this century, depending on just how catastrophic climate change becomes.

Pat you havent heard the news?

PD, I think your dad was technically correct, in that I think there will be oil in the Earth 1000 yrs from now. It will probably not be easily accessible. But we will eventually, substantially, stop extracting oil, because alternate energy resources will be considered to be more economically viable. (Btw, this SHOULD already be the case if the cost of damages were figured in, but they continue not to be.) But even without considering the cost of damage to the world of oil, other energy sources will be less costly, eventually, and maybe not all that long from now.

.45 cents per kw sounds like a MAJOR ripoff! Seems like massive solar and wind farms would produce electricity far cheaper than that. No wind in Australia?

 

Pat you havent heard the news?

IF the answer is ‘Jesus’, I shall belt you around the left ear with a maggoty possum. If some thing else, “lay on McDuff”

“.45 cents per kw sounds like a MAJOR ripoff!”

Ya think? I think that’s called ‘a market economy’. In truth what that means is “charge as much as you can get away with”

As I mentioned, Australia already has one the highest uptakes of solar energy in the world. At least one energy company is already investing heavily in solar energy.

There are massive wind farms all over Australia. I was recently told that a wind turbine needs little maintenance and pays for its production in about 3 months. (?) Power companies are also heavily invested in wind farms

The link below is about wind Farms in my state of South Australia only. The days of power cost rip offs are coming are coming to an end in Australia .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wind_farms_in_South_Australia .

Addendum; OZ still has massive coal reserves, and still exports heaps. At present most of our power comes from coal . We even had a former Prime Minister try to argue the notion of ‘clean coal’.He was laughed at.