“Scientists will know approximately when fossil fuels will substantially decrease and people will become inventive—”
I think it can be argued that process started some time ago, as soon as renewable energy became a profitable concern.
Australia, with around 300 days of annual sunshine, together with an affluent society has one of the highest uptakes of solar energy in the world. In my state of South Australia, domestic uptake is one in four. This is at least partially because of government subsidies for the infrastructure. Australia is also committed to renewable energy as our main source within the next 20 years. That is also the timeline for the end of new internal combustions cars being used in Australia.
I bought my 5KW Solar panel system system about 2 years ago. The cost to me was $3000 installed. It’s a net input system, meaning my house uses what is produced first. The remainder goes to the grid, for which I’m paid an insulting 15 cents a kwh. The cost of electricity in my state is around 45 cents/ Kwh ; among the most expensive in the world.
My solar panel system saves over 30% a year.
My dad worked for BP for over 40 years, in management. I asked him when I was about 12 (1959) ,how long the oil reserves would last He gave what I think was the official company line at the time: Dad said we had enough oil for A THOUSAND YEARS! I was too young and too gullible to question that statement .
Whereas I don’t think we are in imminent danger of running out of oil, there is no doubt in my mind that there will be drastic shortages within the next 2-3 decades I belive oil WILL be replaced by renewable energy before the middle of this century, depending on just how catastrophic climate change becomes.