Let’s see
The third-party track record
There’s been a Green Party and Libertarian candidate every presidential year in recent elections, but they rarely get more than 1% of the popular vote in presidential elections.
Note: Figures below come from The American Presidency Project’s list of presidential elections.
> Green Party presidential candidate Ralph Nader appears at the National Press Club in Washington, DC, in November 2000.
Michael Smith/Newsmakers/Getty Images
►The recent years in which these main alternative parties do relatively well – 2016 and 2000 – also happen to be years in which the winner of the Electoral College vote does not win the popular vote.
â–şThe most successful third-party candidate many living Americans voted for might have been Ross Perot, who arguably spoiled the 1992 election for Republican President George H.W. Bush and allowed Bill Clinton, a Democrat, to win the White House with just 43% of the popular vote.
VIDEO
Ross Perot remembered for quirky approach to politics
â–şIn 1980, the Republican congressman John Anderson ran as an independent and more liberal candidate than Democratic President Jimmy Carter on many social issues, according to a [New York Times obituary of Anderson]
(https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/04/us/politics/john-anderson-who-ran-against-reagan-and-carter-in-1980-is-dead-at-95.html).
That didn’t help Carter, already damaged by Sen. Edward Kennedy’s primary challenge. Anderson got more than 6% of the popular vote, although, like many third-party candidates, he polled much higher earlier in the campaign. Most voters tend to go home to their preferred party on Election Day.
â–şThe last third-party candidate to actually win an Electoral College vote was George Wallace, who in 1968 won five Southern states and 46 Electoral College votes as a segregationist with the American Independent Party. That was the first election after civil rights legislation signaled a realignment of Southern White voters against Democrats.
> Alabama Gov. George Wallace makes a speech at a fundraising dinner held at the American Hotel in New York City in October 1968.
> Hulton Archive/Getty Images
►The sitting Democratic president in 1968, Lyndon Johnson, decided not to run that year. But you’ll notice that with the exception of 1996, when Perot ran again, all those years with third-party candidates who registered more than 2% in the popular vote – 1968, 1980, 1992, 2000 and 2016 – were years in which the party that controlled the White House lost it.
Conclusion: The evidence is that a strong third-party candidate is bad news for the sitting president.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/17/politics/third-parties-elections-what-matters/index.html