China demanded that Malaysia turn over the satellite data used to conclude that a Malaysia Airlines jetliner had crashed in the southern Indian Ocean, killing everyone on board, as gale-force winds and heavy rain on Tuesday halted the search for remains of the plane.
It appears premature and unjustified jumping to the conclusion that MH370 had crashed in the southern Indian Ocean with no survivors based only on data from one satellite.
Where is the hard compelling physical evidence in the form of debris etc. that it has crashed?
And from the same article above:
“We’re not searching for a needle in a haystack — we’re still trying to define where the haystack is," Australia’s deputy defence chief, Air Marshal Mark Binskin, told reporters at a military base in Perth as idled planes stood behind him.
So, where is the haystack and the needle in it?
With no triangulation data, no precise location of MH370 is available and as such, no conclusion wrt where and what happened to MH370 can be made with any certainty at all.
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangulation
Today, large-scale triangulation networks for positioning have largely been superseded by the Global navigation satellite systems established since the 1980s.
That requires data from more than one satellite to work.
In the face of all these uncertainties, we should suspend judgment.
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspension_of_judgment
Suspension of judgment is a cognitive process and a rational state of mind in which one withholds judgments, particularly on the drawing of moral or ethical conclusions. The opposite of suspension of judgment is premature judgment, usually shortened to prejudice. While prejudgment involves drawing a conclusion or making a judgment before having the information relevant to such a judgment, suspension of judgment involves waiting for all the facts before making a decision.
Suspension of judgment is a cornerstone of standard research methodology. Much of the scientific method is designed to encourage the suspension of judgments until observations can be made, tested, and verified through peer review.
Sure, everyone should suspend judgment. Everyone who speculates should clearly state the evidence and, particularly, the assumptions on which their speculation rests. Everyone who speculates or hypothesizes should clearly label it as such.
That being said, it is not taboo, and could even be useful, to try to put the pieces together to form a rational hypothesis, based on the valid, hard information available, limited though it may be. The satellite data analyzed by the British company, involved calculations based on the Doppler effect. I tend to believe that their calculations were correct based on the assumptions that they used to conclude where MH370 wound up. Unfortunately their assumptions about the plane’s altitude, fuel consumption, airspeed and steady course, may be off by a wide margin. Thus, searchers may be looking in the wrong area for the “haystack”.
Another silly thing I’ve seen in the media coverage, are “experts” who declare the percentage of correctness of a particular scenario. Really. How did they calculate those percentages?
If simplicity is the only criteria the rogue pilot theory would make the most sense but as Lois already pointed out the simplest solution does not always turn out to be the correct one. Since most modern mechanical systems are built with redundancies and backups it sometimes takes a series of unlikely events to result in a catastrophic failure. For those who want an answer now there are far too many uncertainties here and far too little data. We will just have to wait until there is more for them to go on.
The rogue pilot hypothesis is concise, but requires motive. So far, no credible motive.
Sure, everyone should suspend judgment. Everyone who speculates should clearly state the evidence and, particularly, the assumptions on which their speculation rests. Everyone who speculates or hypothesizes should clearly label it as such.
Quite so.
That being said, it is not taboo, and could even be useful, to try to put the pieces together to form a rational hypothesis, based on the valid, hard information available, limited though it may be.
There should be no restrictions for anyone to propose theories based on the available facts. Whether these theories ultimately fit reality is the acid test of their validity.
The satellite data analyzed by the British company, involved calculations based on the Doppler effect. I tend to believe that their calculations were correct based on the assumptions that they used to conclude where MH370 wound up. Unfortunately their assumptions about the plane's altitude, fuel consumption, airspeed and steady course, may be off by a wide margin. Thus, searchers may be looking in the wrong area for the "haystack".
It is remarkable that Immarsat can deduce so much with just the pings from the aircraft, using their calculations based on the Doppler effect.
However, the assumptions on which the calculations are based, are questionable.
If and only if, the plane was flying at its normal cruising speed (approximately 600 mph) and altitude (35,000 feet), then the calculations are correct wrt how far it flew before it ran out of fuel.
OTOH, apparently it descended from 35,000 to 12,000 feet after turning west from the south China sea. If it maintained it's altitude of 12,000 feet instead of ascending to 35,000 feet again, then it could only fly at approximately 400 mph and with higher fuel consumption.
This means that the plane could not have flown that far within the specified time frame of the pings which implies that the searchers could be looking at the wrong area, notwithstanding the various satellite images of "debris".
Also, could the plane have flown west into the Bay of Bengal instead?
Regrettably, there are also geopolitical rivalries involved in the search for the plane.
From http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/27/world/asia/geopolitical-rivalries-jet.html?hp&_r=0
The instruments of the search — advanced radar and satellite arrays, banks of intelligence analysts, surveillance planes and ships — are also the tools of spycraft. And as they have come together, the imperative among participating countries to cloak their technological capacities and weaknesses has proved irresistible, at times hindering the search, military analysts say.
And
For example, Indian officials were reluctant to discuss radar data from the Bay of Bengal, along one of the plane’s possible paths. That turned out to be because there was not much data — the area was a weak spot in the country’s radar coverage. In an interview, a senior Indian military official said India did not keep “heavy surveillance" capabilities there because it was not a tense area, unlike the country’s northern border with Pakistan. It would have been possible to miss the jet at night, he said.
I think everyone is combining two issues that should be separate.
where is the plane most likely to be?
what caused it to disappear?
Using Ockham’s razor, the plane is highly likely to be deep in the Indian Ocean with all aboard having died. That is the simplest and most likely scenario about the wherabouts of the plane. All of the speculation about what might have caused the plane to disappear are complications and don’t belong in the question of where the plane is. The plane would need a very long runway to land on and all such runways are known. A new runway could hardly have been built for a plane of that size to land on without any detection of it, plus 300-some passengers and crew. There has been no indication from anywhere that the plane landed and that passengers and any crew are still alive or bodies disposed of. It would be humanly impossible to hide the evidence of such a scenario for this long.
Any rational speculation should be permitted from any source until scientifically valid answers are found.
Meanwhile, speculation about where the plane is should cease, even if wreckage is not found… The simplest explanation should be assumed–that the plane has gone into the ocean and all aboard are dead and in the ocean. Any other scenario would be extraordinary and requires extraordinary evidence to support it.
If there is to be speculation, let it be on what caused the plane to go off course and disappear from all detection, not on where the plane might be. And everyone should understand that the most likely result is that we will never know the answers to these questions–but they should be investigated. We should put our resources and manpower into answering questions about what happened, not about where the plane is.
Lois
The funny thing is that 20 years ago, these kind of crashes were much more common, and it would be assumed all were lost beyond possibility of at least a quick retrieval if at all. And because it occurred more frequently (and would have been pre-2001) while there may have been suspicion of hijacking, there would not be nearly as many conspiracies running around. Now, thanks to advances in technology, a 24 hour news cycle and the extreme rarity of this kind of event, we have all sorts of lunatic theories circulating. Talking on other boards, I am astounded to discover people’s ignorance of the geography or size of the search area. It is isolated, desolate, stormy and covers the size of a good portion of the continent of Australia. And it went off course. Not exactly conditions to make locating it a simple task. 20 or 30 years ago, recovery would be completely out of the question.
The funny thing is that 20 years ago, these kind of crashes were much more common, and it would be assumed all were lost beyond possibility of at least a quick retrieval if at all. And because it occurred more frequently (and would have been pre-2001) while there may have been suspicion of hijacking, there would not be nearly as many conspiracies running around. Now, thanks to advances in technology, a 24 hour news cycle and the extreme rarity of this kind of event, we have all sorts of lunatic theories circulating. Talking on other boards, I am astounded to discover people's ignorance of the geography or size of the search area. It is isolated, desolate, stormy and covers the size of a good portion of the continent of Australia. And it went off course. Not exactly conditions to make locating it a simple task. 20 or 30 years ago, recovery would be completely out of the question.
Someone has wisely said that trying to find wreckage of the missing plane in the Indian Ocean is not so much like trying to find a needle in a haystack, it is more like trying to find a particular needle in a needle factory.
Lois
All good points santa. It really is difficult to impart a sense of perspective on people when they often view the entire world from the limited experience of their own backyard augmented by nothing except CSI and LOST.
The search location in the Indian Ocean has now changed. This is being reported as being based on the latest and most promising analysis of the data. I fear that it is more of a “hail Mary”, in that I suspect they may simply be choosing a different set of assumptions that may have no more actual basis than for the last search site. I fear that they may be choosing the new location due to its being an easier place to search. IOW, I am beginning to be pessimistic re: the likelihood that MH370 will be found anytime in the next few years, or perhaps, many years.
If that is the case, the enduring mystery will fuel conspiracy theories for many years to come.
The search location in the Indian Ocean has now changed. This is being reported as being based on the latest and most promising analysis of the data. I fear that it is more of a "hail Mary", in that I suspect they may simply be choosing a different set of assumptions that may have no more actual basis than for the last search site. I fear that they may be choosing the new location due to its being an easier place to search. IOW, I am beginning to be pessimistic re: the likelihood that MH370 will be found anytime in the next few years, or perhaps, many years.
It may not be that hopeless. There are other possibilities to consider.
From this article in slate.com here]
For his part, Exner believes the range of route possibilities is even larger than Inmarsat’s projections suggest. He points out that MH370 was detected diving to 12,000 feet before disappearing from Malaysian military radar. A Boeing 777 going 310 knots at 12,000 feet burns a bit less fuel than one going 440 knots at 30,000 feet, so there’s no question it could have stayed aloft that long. The resulting flight profile is still consistent with Inmarsat’s ping distance and Doppler data, but results in a track that is much shorter and curves to the east near the south coast of Sumatra and Java.
Even though Inmarsat’s presumed approach makes sense and its calculations seem credible, that is not to say that its results are necessarily accurate. Before scientists publish a finding, it must undergo peer review by independent authorities in the field. Inmarsat has declared itself absolutely confident in its results and says that its results were “peer-reviewed" by the British government, but showing one’s work to self-chosen sympathetic colleagues is not peer review. Until Inmarsat’s findings are looked over by a truly independent panel of experts, it will be hard to have unequivocal confidence in the report.
Bold added by me.
And also from this article in slate.com here]
I am saying that the evidence that MH370 is in the Indian Ocean is very shaky indeed. I’m criticizing not the idea that it’s in the Indian Ocean, but the confident assertion that it must be.
Until someone fishes a seat cushion or luggage tag out of the sea, the only way we’re likely to understand more about the fate of MH370 is if Inmarsat and the Malaysian authorities open up the ping data to the public for independent analysis. So far, they’ve been reluctant to lift their veil of secrecy. But if the public—and especially the passengers’ families, who have been told to accept the death of their loved ones on the basis of that secret data alone—demand its release with sufficient force, perhaps they will change their tune.
Bold added by me.
Surely, no one is expected to believe that their loved ones are dead without definite physical proof that they are, notwithstanding mathematics and satellite data that are at best, theorectical and unsubstantiated without independent peer review.
IOW, the map is not the territory as the map could be inaccurate and thus, misleading.
I’d like to know how they could possibly prevent any of the passengers from secreting a cell phone and sending a text out to someone had the plan landed somewhere. Highly unlikely. As I said, 20 or 30 years ago, there would have been no question that they were dead and lost. It has happened before. At this point, I’d be surprised if it is ever found. The family members are driving the search, something again unthinkable 30 years ago, unless the victim is JFK jr…and they had an idea of his location. At this point, as far as I can tell, we have no idea.
As an aside, I had no idea the ocean there had turned into such a dump. I’m amazed at the resolution of the satellites, and their ability to spot relatively small objects, but so far the pieces have just been garbage.
As an aside, I had no idea the ocean there had turned into such a dump. I'm amazed at the resolution of the satellites, and their ability to spot relatively small objects, but so far the pieces have just been garbage.
Yup, another pretty sad state of affairs. Our disregard for what's outside our field of vision is appalling.
Nearly thirty years since it's "discovery" and growing unimpeded.
Puts a whole new meaning on junk food,
considering that the tiny broken down pieces of plastic have become a food source for many marine animals.
Not only empty calories, but no calories either.
http://act.oceanconservancy.org/images/2010ICCReportRelease_pressPhotos/2010_ICC_Report.pdf
http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/about/media/how-big-great-pacific-garbage-patch-science-vs-myth.html
Well, guess it’s not just the little specks of plastic…
The remains of dead baby albatrosses reveal the far-reaches of plastic pollution on Midway Atoll, 2000 miles from any mainland.
Credit: Chris Jordan, from his series "Midway: Message from the Gyre."
Used under Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/about/media/how-big-great-pacific-garbage-patch-science-vs-myth.html
As an aside, I had no idea the ocean there had turned into such a dump. I'm amazed at the resolution of the satellites, and their ability to spot relatively small objects, but so far the pieces have just been garbage.
Yup, another pretty sad state of affairs. Our disregard for what's outside our field of vision is appalling.
Nearly thirty years since it's "discovery" and growing unimpeded.
Puts a whole new meaning on junk food,
considering that the tiny broken down pieces of plastic have become a food source for many marine animals.
Not only empty calories, but no calories either.
http://act.oceanconservancy.org/images/2010ICCReportRelease_pressPhotos/2010_ICC_Report.pdf
http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/about/media/how-big-great-pacific-garbage-patch-science-vs-myth.html
Perhaps a micro-organism that can metabolize micro-plastic particles will evolve and take over the oceans.
Nah, just like the dead organic material (plant & animal) that slowly sank to the bottom of the oceans, got covered over with dirt, under high pressure and central planet heat, turned into coal and oil, that’ll probably happen to the micro plastic in the next billion years or so.
Occam
Well, guess it's not just the little specks of plastic...
The remains of dead baby albatrosses reveal the far-reaches of plastic pollution on Midway Atoll, 2000 miles from any mainland.
Credit: Chris Jordan, from his series "Midway: Message from the Gyre."
Used under Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/about/media/how-big-great-pacific-garbage-patch-science-vs-myth.html
My local museum has a dead young seagull preserved on display with all of the stuff they found in its gut which eventually killed it.
