Here is a quote from a CNN story today that calls into question the theory we are discussing It says that " it appears the passenger jet was programmed to steer off course before the pilots signed off with air traffic control -- and that the change of course was transmitted to air traffic controllers." Malaysia Airlines Flight 370: How do passenger jets change flight paths?] There is a helpful 3 minute video on that page that explains a lot of the equipment in the cockpitHere is an excerpt from that article: "The last transmission from Flight 370's ACARS system came at 1:07 a.m. The next update was due at 1:37 a.m. It never came. While all information so far indicates that someone inside the cockpit, believed to be the co-pilot, made the last verbal communication with air traffic controllers -- "All right, good night" -- at 1:19 a.m., a law enforcement official told CNN that the plane's programmed change in direction was entered at least (italics mine) 12 minutes before the plane's verbal signoff." It appears to me that the law enforcement officer mis-spoke. I think he should have said "at most" instead of "at least". But even that (corrected statement) may not be correct, as the article goes on to say that ACARS may not transmit course change. Some of what we have heard appears to be assumptions based on other assumptions, being reported as if it is accurate information.
That’s why I wouldnt venture to guess what’s going on here. Very limited data available and the scarce data there is is being presented by people who don’t necessarily have a good understanding of the subject so the facts seem to shift from one report to the next.
Well, it doesn’t matter much whether we do or don’t try to guess what actually happened, since we’re not in a position to do anything about it.
But it is an interesting challenge, I think, to sift through the chaff of information, to try to make sense of it. In the process, maybe we can figure out how to, more effectively, take in or disregard the information reported by the dysfunctional mass media.
Looks as if they’ve found some wreckage in the Indian Ocean.
Lois
Yes they did… even in polish radio people were talking about.
But probably the people, they are dead… RIP.
The most plausible speculation, that I have seen about the mysterious disappearance of the 777 is this: (excerpted from an article reported several days ago by CNN)http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/slow-decompression-may-have-knocked-all-onboard-mh370-unconscious-says-blog ... "Likely fuselage failure near Satcom antenna adapter disabled some or all of GPS, ACARS, ADS-B, and ADS-C antennas and systems. "Thus, only primary radars would detect the plane. Primary radar range is usually less than 100nm (nautical miles) and is generally ineffective at high altitudes. "If the decompression was slow enough, it’s possible the pilots did not realise to put on oxygen masks until it was too late." The writer said oxygen masks would not deploy until cabin altitude reaches 13,500m and the passengers were likely already unconscious by then. Since it was also a red-eye flight, most passengers would had been sleeping and perhaps unaware of oxygen deprivation. If such were the case, my guess is the plane is mostly, now, somewhere at the bottom of the Indian Ocean.You may be right, but the passengers would not have had to be asleep to suffer the effects of oxygen deprivation. They would have simply lost consciousness. Nobody would have been able to protest because they wouldn't have realized that anything was wrong. Lois
You may be right, but the passengers would not have had to be asleep to suffer the effects of oxygen deprivation. They would have simply lost consciousness. Nobody would have been able to protest because they wouldn't have realized that anything was wrong. LoisThat may not be entirely true. First we have to realize that this plane had over 200 people on board which means there will be a wide variation in genetics, physiology, and overall health among the passengers and crew. For this reason not everyone will develop the same symptoms at the same time. Hypoxemia can cause headache, confusion, poor judgement, lack of coordination, loss of consciousness, and seizures. Most likely in a group this large you will have some people suffering the most severe effects, others with mild effects and at the same time some people may still be relatively unaffected for a while. If the cabin gradually lost pressure I think there is a good chance that at least some of the passengers or crew would have noticed something was wrong before they all lost consciousness. That may all be a moot point however if there was no way to correct the problem by accessing the oxygen masks or bringing the plane to a lower altitude since everyone would eventually succumb at some point.
Mystery solved? A confident explanation was given by (guess who?) as follows:
We can all stop wondering about this mystery, as it has been explained by (guess who). She said:
“I see all these smarty pants people on CNN saying that it was terrorism or a fire in the cockpit." she explained to a bewildered Hannity, “But I don’t hear anyone talking about the God possibility. I mean what if they accidentally flew too high and go stuck up there?
“I’m not expert on international aviation. But I do know that God is up there looking down on us. And everyone knows that once you go to heaven you can’t come back. This would explain why we haven’t found any wreckage in the ocean and why no one saw the plane land.
“The radar had the plane at 45,000 feet, well above it’s usual cruising altitude. Who knows how much higher they went?
“Of course the looney liberal media can only imagine secular explanations for this mystery. They would never tell the American public that God might be involved! But I hope the the Malaysian authorities and the NTSB take a look at the facts and seriously consider the idea that this flight crossed into Christ’s kingdom and isn’t coming back.”
And this person could have been a heartbeat away from the Presidency. Wow. (I think this is parody. But it is almost believable that she said it.)
http://www.codewit.com/north-america/17392-palin-wonders-if-malaysian-flight-370-flew-directly-to-heaven
Great. Now who’s going to make the call to the astronauts on the ISS to let them know they won’t be able to come home because they are too high up and everyone knows you can;t come home once you go to heaven.
Damn. The Palin thing is a spoof created by the Daily Currant. I was really looking forward to Tina Fey to come out of retirement and have fun with this.
The best thing for everyone to do regarding the missing plane is to apply Ockham’s razor–something most media are loathe to do.
Occam’s razor (also written as Ockham’s razor from William of Ockham (c. 1287 – 1347), and in Latin lex parsimoniae) is a principle of parsimony, economy, or succinctness used in problem-solving. It states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove correct, but—in the absence of certainty—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better.
wikipedia
Lois you make a good point but no one is yet making a final proclamation on the cause of the disappearance. They seem to have a lot of air time to fill since the public is glued to this story so the TV pundits are just sitting around spit balling theories to fill time. I haven’t yet seen anyone seriously propose an alien abduction or a crash landing on the Secret Isle of Dr Moreau so for the moment I think Occams razor is safe.
The best thing for everyone to do regarding the missing plane is to apply Ockham's razor--something most media are loathe to do. Occam's razor (also written as Ockham's razor from William of Ockham (c. 1287 – 1347), and in Latin lex parsimoniae) is a principle of parsimony, economy, or succinctness used in problem-solving. It states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove correct, but—in the absence of certainty—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better. wikipediaThe simplest hypothesis I can think of is a deadly decompression event that simultaneously took out the ACARS and left the pilots confused and struggling to keep the plane flying. But even that doesn't seem to fit everything that seems to have happened. A pilot with the bends would have had to survive long enough to make one final course correction out to sea, so that the doomed plane would not endanger other lives in its inevitable crash. I don't think Ockham would be happy with that hypothesis, but none of the other hypotheses make sense either.
Lois you make a good point but no one is yet making a final proclamation on the cause of the disappearance. They seem to have a lot of air time to fill since the public is glued to this story so the TV pundits are just sitting around spit balling theories to fill time. I haven't yet seen anyone seriously propose an alien abduction or a crash landing on the Secret Isle of Dr Moreau so for the moment I think Occams razor is safe.True about filling air time, but I'll bet someone somewhere is proposing an alien abduction or crash landing on the Secret Isle of Dr. Moreau. It just hasn't reached the mainstream media yet. ;-P However, Ockham's Razor doesn't apply only to a final proclamation, but to competing hypotheses. "[A]mong competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove correct, but—in the absence of certainty—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better." Lois
The best thing for everyone to do regarding the missing plane is to apply Ockham's razor--something most media are loathe to do. Occam's razor (also written as Ockham's razor from William of Ockham (c. 1287 – 1347), and in Latin lex parsimoniae) is a principle of parsimony, economy, or succinctness used in problem-solving. It states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove correct, but—in the absence of certainty—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better. wikipediaThe simplest hypothesis I can think of is a deadly decompression event that simultaneously took out the ACARS and left the pilots confused and struggling to keep the plane flying. But even that doesn't seem to fit everything that seems to have happened. A pilot with the bends would have had to survive long enough to make one final course correction out to sea, so that the doomed plane would not endanger other lives in its inevitable crash. I don't think Ockham would be happy with that hypothesis, but none of the other hypotheses make sense either. We'll have to come up with the simplest explanation that fits what we know. I'm no aviation expert so I can't guess what that might be but I think a lot of the speculations we've heard are nowhere near the simplest explanation. Lois
We'll have to come up with the simplest explanation that fits what we know. I'm no aviation expert so I can't guess what that might be but I think a lot of the speculations we've heard are nowhere near the simplest explanation. LoisWho says you need to be an aviation expert? Many of these speculations that we've heard are from supposed aviation experts. So what is your simplest explanation?
If simplicity is the only criteria the rogue pilot theory would make the most sense but as Lois already pointed out the simplest solution does not always turn out to be the correct one. Since most modern mechanical systems are built with redundancies and backups it sometimes takes a series of unlikely events to result in a catastrophic failure. For those who want an answer now there are far too many uncertainties here and far too little data. We will just have to wait until there is more for them to go on.
I really don't know and sometimes admitting we don't know is the smartest thing we can do. It really is a pretty unique set of circumstances and one heck of a head scratcher which is why I suppose people are even more glued to this story than a typical plane crash. Its tough to come up with any good theory when there is so little information to go on. I will go out on a limb and suggest that its going to be years before anyone finds this plane. Even when we find it we may not get all the answers. I heard expert say the black box recorder is on a 2 hour loop. If that's true, whatever happened more than 2 hours before the flight ended would have been recorded over so we may never know for sure what happened at the moment the plane left its planned route and disappeared. So we may be tossing this one around for a really long time. On the other hand the amount of resources being put into this search is unprecedented so you never know. We may get lucky.I think you're right. And, yes, saying you don't know is the best position to take. Nobody knows. Lois
We'll have to come up with the simplest explanation that fits what we know. I'm no aviation expert so I can't guess what that might be but I think a lot of the speculations we've heard are nowhere near the simplest explanation. LoisWho says you need to be an aviation expert? Many of these speculations that we've heard are from supposed aviation experts. So what is your simplest explanation? My simplest explanation is that the plane went into the Indian Ocean. We don't know why. I can't speculate on why beyond that it could have been something like a fire or other problem with the plane and the pilots were trying to save it but failed or the pilots were attacked by passengers or the pilots did it deliberately. That's as much speculation as I feel comfortable with considering how little real information is at our disposal. I just don't think it's worthwhile to speculate wildly. But people will, nevertheless. Lois
That explains volumes
“Of course the looney liberal media can only imagine secular explanations for this mystery.well, color me guilty ~ ~ ~ macgyver thanks for your posts, particularly #19. I can definitely understand getting extra practice in a home simulator, all reports are the senior pilot had a distinguished record. Guess, some of them pilots are pretty mechanical, heck my brother built a small two-seater plane he flies around in, like 25 years old and it's still rated and still flies regularly. So how much $$ would you need to invest in a home jetliner simulator?