Getting error msg that topic cannot be empty. posting test page.
Had a great graph. Could not get it into the post. Sorry.
Aged Black Carbon
Cc, just catching up on the latest data of climate change. Broke my arm a couple weeks back and been trying to use voice commands on the computer. That has not been fun. It’s been about a month since catching up on the latest news on Global Warming. What a difference a month makes.
There is a big split in science or claimed science groups. The political groups are pushing the world ending in 12 years hard now and trying to get as much mileage and new headlines as they can. Political groups are also using the children to push their agenda.
The more scientific groups are changing the pitch from warming to air pollution for our grandchildren is why we need climate regulations today.
The News has always followed the democratic agenda of climate change. Now the Associated Press has claimed that fact checking the 12 years dooms day is wrong. The democratic groups have jumped all over the AP as bad fact checking.
Nothing has happened to change my view point. Which is. We had cooling in the early seventies and were told we were heading into global cooling. Then in the mid-seventies we had warming. We had been researching acid rain and holes in the ozone. Along with a big push in air pollution at the time. CO2 was a big part of air pollution and now that it was obvious that the earth was not going into the ice age with global cooling, it was the air pollution of the CO2 causing the warming of the earth.
Then the global warming kind of took off around 1977. It was just not the weather. We were dealing with world population causing world catastrophes of mass starvation. People were stockpiling food. If that wasn’t bad enough, we were being told by professors that nuclear war was equal to being in an ice age by the year 2000. The professors really started getting time on radio and tv on issues like massive sun storms, dust bowl condition from droughts. And a group of scientists were going against the ice age and prediction global warming causing global flooding and sea levels to rise. Whole nations would disappear under water.
In a way people were getting tired of the news being all about the evils of communism and socialism and this new environmentalism was at least something different. We looked at the catastrophes of what was coming by the year 2000. From the digital world braking down, to Al Gores prediction that we would past the point of no return if we hadn’t fixed climate change. And we really hadn’t done anything to fix global warming at this point. On the flip side it was a break from God showing up because all the end of the world prediction had come true.
The predictions were way off. Wrong on the temperatures and world ending. Eighty percent of all living species were to be extinct by 2000. Oil and gas were to be all used up along with depletion of most metals causing the economies to collapse.
As we got into the new millennium the attitude started changing from the earth is ending to it is the right thing to do for political, economical and environmental reasons.
The science now had decades of actual weather to work with. Todays news are claiming that we are experiencing record breaking heat, year after year now. It’s all misleading. Weather trends in cycles and all we need to do now is look at what has been happening in a longer part of the cycle. The cooling of the seventies started warming and by 1997 the warming from cold period of the seventies had stopped. Since 2016 we have been cooling as the levels of CO2 have been rising steadily along. If by the end of this year, if there is no warming. Then it is obvious that CO2 has nothing to do with global warming as a driving factor. As a blanket yes, as a warming driver, no.
Paris climate conference is making regulations that can’t be achieved.
This came out last week.
Last year, the EU adopted an updated version of its renewable energy directive, committing the bloc to source at least 32% of its energy from renewables by 2030. The target is considered a central element of the EU’s goal to cut carbon emissions by 40% by the same date.
Paris Agreement goal of cutting carbon emissions by 40% come 2030. The European Commission estimates that biomass currently represents almost 60% of renewable energy consumption in the EU. Bioenergy consumption in Europe increased by more than 69% in 2005-2016, and this is expected to continue growing in the next decades.
Biomass as carbon neutral runs counter to scientific findings showing that burning wood for energy typically emits 1.5 times more CO2 than coal and 3 times more than natural gas.
Climate change by exacerbating forest cutting in the US to meet the growing demand for wood pellet fuel in the EU does not make a lot of sense.
As you know, climate change is just now getting around to clouds. This is where gets interesting. Three billion of the poorest people on earth cook and heat with solid fuels. This puts black carbon into the atmosphere. Black carbon is right behind CO2 in direct radiative forcing. The EU as part of the Paris Agreement has changed from coal to wood pellets for heating.
New findings are that black carbon must be rated as fresh emissions and aged emissions. The aged black carbon has an absorption that is enhanced by a factor of 2.4 over fresh emissions. So much for the Paris agreement working. It is looking like the coal would have been better to use for the earth.
The point being, as black carbon is in the air. Other molecules attach to the black carbon and enhance its heat capturing abilities by an average of 2.4 times. Thus, the name – Aged Carbon.
This of course must mean that all the data from the models are wrong and will have to be reworked.
Black carbon, the stuff we used to call soot.
Not sure what Mike is trying to convey with that ramble to nowhere, but I figure a little actual information might be called for at this point.
http://www.igsd.org/comprehensive-four-year-study-finds-black-carbon-second-biggest-climate-pollutant-behind-carbon-dioxide/“The Coalition is the first global effort to address black carbon and the other short-lived climate pollutants and is an essential platform for action,” said Romina Picolotti, former secretary of environment for Argentina. …
“Black carbon is not only more important for climate than we thought, it also kills over a million people every year who contract deadly respiratory diseases by breathing air polluted by black carbon,” said Zaelke. …
Over the past decade “the speed of Arctic climate change and glacial melt has increased the demand for mitigation options which can slow near-term warming,” according to the assessment, and reducing black carbon along with other short-lived climate pollutants, “especially methane and tropospheric ozone (O3), could quickly decrease positive climate forcing and hence climate warming.”
Black Carbon is one of the short-lived climate pollutants targeted by the Climate and Clean Air Coalition, along with methane, and HFCs. Fast action on black carbon and methane has the potential to cut the rate of climate change in half for the next several decades, reduce air pollution-related deaths by as much as 2.4 million a year, and annual crop losses by 30 to more than 100 million tonnes, according to a previous assessment of black carbon and tropospheric ozone by UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization.
The CO2 problem in 6 easy steps:Step 1: There is a natural greenhouse effect.
Step 2: Trace gases contribute to the natural greenhouse effect.
Step 3: The trace greenhouse gases have increased markedly due to human emissions
Step 4: Radiative forcing is a useful diagnostic and can easily be calculated
Step 5: Climate sensitivity is around 3ºC for a doubling of CO2
Step 6: Radiative forcing x climate sensitivity is a significant number
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/08/the-co2-problem-in-6-easy-steps/
Aged soot, . . .
Strong impact of wildfires on the abundance and aging of black carbon in the lowermost stratosphere
Jeannine Ditas, Nan Ma, Yuxuan Zhang, Denise Assmann, Marco Neumaier, Hella Riede, Einar Karu, Jonathan Williams, Dieter Scharffe, Qiaoqiao Wang, Jorge Saturno, Joshua P. Schwarz, Joseph M. Katich, Gavin R. McMeeking, Andreas Zahn, Markus Hermann, Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer, Meinrat O. Andreae, Ulrich Pöschl, Hang Su, and Yafang Cheng
PNAS December 11, 2018 115 (50) E11595-E11603; published ahead of print November 26, 2018 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1806868115
https://www.pnas.org/content/115/50/E11595
Significance
Unique information about the abundance and evolution of wildfire-emitted black carbon (BC) in the lowermost part of the stratosphere (LMS) was obtained from long-term airborne measurements made in cooperation with Lufthansa through the Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container (CARIBIC) project, part of the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) framework. Our results demonstrate that wildfires can dramatically increase BC mass concentration in the LMS, substantially enhance regional climate forcing, and are a challenge for model simulations. …
Abstract
Wildfires inject large amounts of black carbon (BC) particles into the atmosphere, which can reach the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) and cause strong radiative forcing. During a 14-month period of observations on board a passenger aircraft flying between Europe and North America, we found frequent and widespread biomass burning (BB) plumes, influencing 16 of 160 flight hours in the LMS. The average BC mass concentrations in these plumes (∼140 ng·m−3, standard temperature and pressure) were over 20 times higher than the background concentration (∼6 ng·m−3) with more than 100-fold enhanced peak values (up to ∼720 ng·m−3). In the LMS, nearly all BC particles were covered with a thick coating. …
Extended summer dry seasons, drier vegetation, and decreased winter precipitation driven by climate change are leading to more frequent wildland fires in many parts of the world, with an increased duration and severity of burning (1⇓–3). Especially in the northern high latitudes, where there is less intensive land management, a post-1750 increase in biomass burning (BB) events has been observed using the charcoal accumulation in sediments (charcoal index increased by ∼0.4) (4).