Why we're doomed

Reading mid atlantic’s posts, and finding out I work with an anti-vaxxer as well as a guy who is trying make a perpetual motion machine at home has got me thinking about the future of our species. I have long known that history is not some steady line of progress, but a constant struggle of acquired knowledge and exploitation of that knowledge that results in much of it being lost. It’s hard to say just how much is lost permanently, but we can see it being lost then found then lost again.
What it seems to be a function of is laziness that results from comfort. Once we get some leisure time, we tend to think we’ve made it and quit working. Invention and innovation usually comes from necessity. Some comes from the well off wanting to be even more well off, but for a person who is removed from the everyday struggle of survival to really understand hard work and that there are still lots of people in need is pretty rare. So we get anti-vaxxers who don’t believe polio was that bad, we get anti-GMOers and anti-chemicalers who don’t know that’s how we solved hunger in India, we get pro-religion because it’s just a “nice community” not a corrupt power structure, we get all manner of anti-science, but let’s hope we don’t get another Bush in the White House.

Reading mid atlantic's posts, and finding out I work with an anti-vaxxer as well as a guy who is trying make a perpetual motion machine at home has got me thinking about the future of our species. I have long known that history is not some steady line of progress, but a constant struggle of acquired knowledge and exploitation of that knowledge that results in much of it being lost. It's hard to say just how much is lost permanently, but we can see it being lost then found then lost again.
Its good to hear I've made an impact.
What it seems to be a function of is laziness that results from comfort. Once we get some leisure time, we tend to think we've made it and quit working. Invention and innovation usually comes from necessity. Some comes from the well off wanting to be even more well off, but for a person who is removed from the everyday struggle of survival to really understand hard work and that there are still lots of people in need is pretty rare.
You got some of this right--too much comfort is ultimately a bad thing, (so is complexity) thats why we have Liberalism, for example. However, its not so much that we have become lazy, its that we've largely forgotten what works, and what's really important.
So we get anti-vaxxers who don't believe polio was that bad, we get anti-GMOers and anti-chemicalers who don't know that's how we solved hunger in India, we get pro-religion because it's just a "nice community" not a corrupt power structure, we get all manner of anti-science, but let's hope we don't get another Bush in the White House.
1) Anti-vaxxers are a very small number of people with a bigger than average mouthpiece; they may be discouraging, but they aren't a threat. 2) The anti-chemical, anti-GMO crowd have a few legitimate concerns which will likely become more important in the future, they aren't unique to today, though. 3) Religion is a huge part of the human experience - far more then science will ever be. Atheists (or maybe I should say metaphysical naturalists) should accept they will always be a small minority in the world.
Reading mid atlantic's posts, and finding out I work with an anti-vaxxer as well as a guy who is trying make a perpetual motion machine at home has got me thinking about the future of our species. I have long known that history is not some steady line of progress, but a constant struggle of acquired knowledge and exploitation of that knowledge that results in much of it being lost. It's hard to say just how much is lost permanently, but we can see it being lost then found then lost again. What it seems to be a function of is laziness that results from comfort. Once we get some leisure time, we tend to think we've made it and quit working. Invention and innovation usually comes from necessity. Some comes from the well off wanting to be even more well off, but for a person who is removed from the everyday struggle of survival to really understand hard work and that there are still lots of people in need is pretty rare. So we get anti-vaxxers who don't believe polio was that bad, we get anti-GMOers and anti-chemicalers who don't know that's how we solved hunger in India, we get pro-religion because it's just a "nice community" not a corrupt power structure, we get all manner of anti-science, but let's hope we don't get another Bush in the White House.
Do you suppose it is possible that the available dearth of information of every possible ilk on the World Wide Web has become like the bible, in that you can interpret it to mean almost anything you want? All it takes is the smallest inclination to conspiracy theory thinking and your off on a mission to mine the web for proof of your point of view. Confirmation bias may be the crack cocaine of cyberspace.
Do you suppose it is possible that the available dearth of information of every possible ilk on the World Wide Web has become like the bible, in that you can interpret it to mean almost anything you want? All it takes is the smallest inclination to conspiracy theory thinking and your off on a mission to mine the web for proof of your point of view. Confirmation bias may be the crack cocaine of cyberspace.
I've quit doing it, but I have had several conversations on the web, with people I know or not, where I look at the same topic, sometimes even the exact same articles and I point out my different conclusions and show my work, how I got there. They all end the same, "do your own research and you'll see I'm right". I try to explain to them that they are saying "think for yourself and you'll agree with me". I've had people agree with me on the basic methods of logic and evidence, then asked them apply them and switch to saying science is a conspiracy, or that there is something "beyond science". I'm hoping that the trend toward more science education continues.

I am trying to picture the results of the various “ages” we have gone through.
The agricultural age created many natural enemies of our crops, grazers, rodents, pests. In effect our domestication resulted in a war with the natural environment, and now we hunt and kill (and wage war) for sport rather than meat.
The industrial age created machines to do the work for us. Result, more stationary activities (less exercise) and their attendant problems. But more killing power for our war with nature.
We have entered the computer age, where computers do our thinking for us. Will we lose brain power and get stupider?
Perhaps we can then re-learn what we have forgotten and do it a little smarter next time.
But it seems that our direction has been in the removal of all physical activity and experience them in a virtual reality. Just long distance exchanges of thoughts, free, random. Just like real life…

That’s historical analysis based on personal observation and not much else. True, humans created leisure time a long ago by rising to the top of the food chain with the technology of the sharpened rock and we’ve continued to increase that by more and more technology. You don’t mention our use of that leisure time to increase our knowledge and create art. Just because we can kill more efficiently doesn’t mean that we are. My OP is pretty pessimistic but I’m perfectly capable of arguing for optimism.
“Doomed” is a relative term. We’ve already proven to be one of the longest running and most adaptable species ever known, so we are only “doomed” in the sense that all species are doomed to extinction at some point. But not all species are the end of the line. It’s a harsh universe, and as far as we know, we’re the first on this planet to be aware of the many ways we can be wiped out. The question is, can we overcome all of them?

Reading mid atlantic's posts, and finding out I work with an anti-vaxxer as well as a guy who is trying make a perpetual motion machine at home has got me thinking about the future of our species. I have long known that history is not some steady line of progress, but a constant struggle of acquired knowledge and exploitation of that knowledge that results in much of it being lost. It's hard to say just how much is lost permanently, but we can see it being lost then found then lost again. What it seems to be a function of is laziness that results from comfort. Once we get some leisure time, we tend to think we've made it and quit working. Invention and innovation usually comes from necessity. Some comes from the well off wanting to be even more well off, but for a person who is removed from the everyday struggle of survival to really understand hard work and that there are still lots of people in need is pretty rare. So we get anti-vaxxers who don't believe polio was that bad, we get anti-GMOers and anti-chemicalers who don't know that's how we solved hunger in India, we get pro-religion because it's just a "nice community" not a corrupt power structure, we get all manner of anti-science, but let's hope we don't get another Bush in the White House.
I think we'll be ok. You just have to have the proper perspective. We're definitely on a downswing currently, as conservatism has reared its ugly head in one last big push. But all in all, if you look at history over say the last 500 years, things have gotten progressively progressive and liberal. And younger generations are becoming, overall, smarter and more cosmopolitan. Unfortunately, for those of us old enough to type stuff into an online forum, we probably won't be around when the last vestiges of religion and conservatism die out.
I think we'll be ok. You just have to have the proper perspective. We're definitely on a downswing currently, as conservatism has reared its ugly head in one last big push. But all in all, if you look at history over say the last 500 years, things have gotten progressively progressive and liberal. And younger generations are becoming, overall, smarter and more cosmopolitan. Unfortunately, for those of us old enough to type stuff into an online forum, we probably won't be around when the last vestiges of religion and conservatism die out.
Downsizing? I know that the rate of population increase has slowed, but downsizing? Not sure how that's related to conservatism. Unless you mean a different kind of conservatism. Yes, progress has been made in 500 years, but how has it gone? The pattern I see is, grumbling from the masses or all out revolution, so different names get put in power and a little power is given to "the people", then those are slowly eroded. Usually they are not completely gone before the pattern starts up again, so there is an upward trend line, but the swings can be pretty wild.
That's historical analysis based on personal observation and not much else. True, humans created leisure time a long ago by rising to the top of the food chain with the technology of the sharpened rock and we've continued to increase that by more and more technology. You don't mention our use of that leisure time to increase our knowledge and create art. Just because we can kill more efficiently doesn't mean that we are. My OP is pretty pessimistic but I'm perfectly capable of arguing for optimism. "Doomed" is a relative term. We've already proven to be one of the longest running and most adaptable species ever known, so we are only "doomed" in the sense that all species are doomed to extinction at some point. But not all species are the end of the line. It's a harsh universe, and as far as we know, we're the first on this planet to be aware of the many ways we can be wiped out. The question is, can we overcome all of them?
I agree, and as humans we have enormous resiliency, but I doubt we can overcome any real long term imbalances in our ecosystem. That's when the insects become the species most likely to survive. They are simple, adaptable. We are complex and vulnerable.
We've already proven to be one of the longest running ... ever known, ...
Hmmm, how do you figure that?
I think we'll be ok. You just have to have the proper perspective.
NO you need a planet that is healthy enough to sustain a prosperous biosphere. Sadly, we humans seem to be on a mission to destroy that as fast as possible.
We've already proven to be one of the longest running ... ever known, ...
Hmmm, how do you figure that? I like to start counting at Lucy, 3 million years ago. I don't care about the specifics, it's our ancestor. We have spread across the globe, in all climates, unlike any other animal. We have manipulated our environment in ways none others have. You could argue that we are abnormal and therefore wrong, unlike something like a shark which has done well by specializing. But I don't think it's fair to judge like that until we completely fail. If we succeed in either harmonizing with this planet or colonizing space, then I don't know how you could argue against our success.
I like to start counting at Lucy, 3 million years ago. I don’t care about the specifics, it’s our ancestor. We have spread across the globe, in all climates, unlike any other animal. We have manipulated our environment in ways none others have. You could argue that we are abnormal and therefore wrong, unlike something like a shark which has done well by specializing. But I don’t think it’s fair to judge like that until we completely fail. If we succeed in either harmonizing with this planet or colonizing space, then I don’t know how you could argue against our success.
Actually our oldest direct ancestor is Homo Erectus (1.8million Ya. To 143,000 Ya) and the longest existing Hominin. This species gave rise to Homo Heidleburgensis which led to Neanderthal and us ca. 200,000 Ya. Since then we've spread to every nook and cranny of the Globe. We lived fairly integrated in the environment until the Industrial Age then the shit hit the fan so to speak. Yes, we are now dooming ourselves to eventual extinction in so many ways, e.g. Air and water pollution but there are other natural disasters awaiting us in the future. Mega volcanoes and asteroid strikes to name just two that will once again wipe the slate clean. It may not happen in the near future but statistically it will happen. Our best chance of survival is space travel; the ability to hop from one stable World to the next. No Deus Ex Machina. Cap't Jack
We've already proven to be one of the longest running ... ever known, ...
Hmmm, how do you figure that? I like to start counting at Lucy, 3 million years ago. I don't care about the specifics, it's our ancestor. We have spread across the globe, in all climates, unlike any other animal. We have manipulated our environment in ways none others have. You could argue that we are abnormal and therefore wrong, unlike something like a shark which has done well by specializing. But I don't think it's fair to judge like that until we completely fail. If we succeed in either harmonizing with this planet or colonizing space, then I don't know how you could argue against our success. I agree with that, but those are big IFs. So far we are not really doing too well with our tremendous powers. They can be a double edged sword. The ultimate test is if we can find equilibrium in our use of energy with our ability to produce that much energy in a long term sustainable way. I really like our home star (the sun). Somewhere on earth weather conditions allow for sunlight and the sun is an inexhaustible supply of energy. And electricity from pure energy is a clean process.
We've already proven to be one of the longest running ... ever known, ...
Hmmm, how do you figure that? I like to start counting at Lucy, 3 million years ago. I don't care about the specifics, it's our ancestor. So were single-celled life forms. How far back will you go when counting the ancestors of T-Rex. By the way, alligators and crocodiles have been around much longer than humans.
I think we'll be ok. You just have to have the proper perspective. We're definitely on a downswing currently, as conservatism has reared its ugly head in one last big push. But all in all, if you look at history over say the last 500 years, things have gotten progressively progressive and liberal. And younger generations are becoming, overall, smarter and more cosmopolitan. Unfortunately, for those of us old enough to type stuff into an online forum, we probably won't be around when the last vestiges of religion and conservatism die out.
Downsizing? I know that the rate of population increase has slowed, but downsizing? Not sure how that's related to conservatism. Unless you mean a different kind of conservatism. Yes, progress has been made in 500 years, but how has it gone? The pattern I see is, grumbling from the masses or all out revolution, so different names get put in power and a little power is given to "the people", then those are slowly eroded. Usually they are not completely gone before the pattern starts up again, so there is an upward trend line, but the swings can be pretty wild.I said downSWING as in the US, and the world at large is currently in the grips of a resurgance of conservatism, i.e. a downswing. Unless you're a conservative of course. And my you need some history lessons. The church used to control almost every aspect of citizens life. That has slipped away. Women and non-whites were considered 2nd and 3rd class beings by virtue of religion. Again that has changed completely. Not done yet, but we're getting there. Education, as flawed as our system is, is now more widely available than ever. And on and on.
I think we'll be ok. You just have to have the proper perspective.
NO you need a planet that is healthy enough to sustain a prosperous biosphere. Sadly, we humans seem to be on a mission to destroy that as fast as possible.Well that's a given.

I can’t wrap my head around how aware educated people with apparently historical appreciation can seriously entertain the notion of space travel as an option for humanity’s future.
Seems to me that way way too many people grew up watching Star Wars, Star Trek, etc. and never once stopped to consider where all that stuff they were blowing up was being manufactured, and where the resources came from. Me I was a nerd and that aspect totally turned me off to that nonsense - but all those dreamers embraced the notions being projected on the screen without a skeptical thought as to what’s realistic and what’s pure fantasy. Oh yeah, if you believe it hard enough, you can make it happen.
Then I hear folks expounding the fall back rationale, hey look at the Age of Discovery, look at how those people in those flimsy boats managed to conquer the world.
Aaahhhh yeah, ya really think space travel can be extrapolated from global oceanic navigation and survival?


And then there is our brutally battered planet which we depend on for our sustenance. With all the changes and trends that we and our complex society have set into motion > which will take many thousands of years to play out. But since few people can think past the next paycheck or at best a couple years into the future, we think we can make those realities go away by ignoring them. I don’t think the Earth operates that way.
Ironically last night I was watching a doc, where a scientist summed up the situation quite succinctly (I think Occam would have approved… I miss that dude.).

The Discovery Of 4 Wing Feathered Dinosaur dinosaurs discovery channel documentary https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=td3WWn7f2jQ
1:18:40 A lesson for those AGW Delusionals who've convinced themselves that manmade global warming is no big deal. Larry Martin: "When we talk about extinction, we should realize that 'change is bad'. Organisms are evolved specifically for a certain habitat and anything that changes that habitat is not likely to be good for them. So, the first rule of extinction is that change, no matter what it is is a bad thing."
I'm sure that notion will shock some Republican/libertarian types who have made a fetish out of 'change' and ever increasing consumption, but hey that's what it is. Cheers, and have a happy day :cheese:
We've already proven to be one of the longest running ... ever known, ...
Hmmm, how do you figure that? I like to start counting at Lucy, 3 million years ago. I don't care about the specifics, it's our ancestor. So were single-celled life forms. How far back will you go when counting the ancestors of T-Rex. By the way, alligators and crocodiles have been around much longer than humans. I think I covered that. I said where I started and obviously Lucy looks a lot more like us than a single-celled life form, so pretty easy to defend that. I also mentioned sharks, like crocs they are successful in a way, but if you want to call them more successful based simply on longevity, not much I can say about that.
I think we'll be ok. You just have to have the proper perspective. We're definitely on a downswing currently, as conservatism has reared its ugly head in one last big push. But all in all, if you look at history over say the last 500 years, things have gotten progressively progressive and liberal. And younger generations are becoming, overall, smarter and more cosmopolitan. Unfortunately, for those of us old enough to type stuff into an online forum, we probably won't be around when the last vestiges of religion and conservatism die out.
Downsizing? I know that the rate of population increase has slowed, but downsizing? Not sure how that's related to conservatism. Unless you mean a different kind of conservatism. Yes, progress has been made in 500 years, but how has it gone? The pattern I see is, grumbling from the masses or all out revolution, so different names get put in power and a little power is given to "the people", then those are slowly eroded. Usually they are not completely gone before the pattern starts up again, so there is an upward trend line, but the swings can be pretty wild.I said downSWING as in the US, and the world at large is currently in the grips of a resurgance of conservatism, i.e. a downswing. Unless you're a conservative of course. And my you need some history lessons. The church used to control almost every aspect of citizens life. That has slipped away. Women and non-whites were considered 2nd and 3rd class beings by virtue of religion. Again that has changed completely. Not done yet, but we're getting there. Education, as flawed as our system is, is now more widely available than ever. And on and on. Not sure why you think I missed that history, I said we're on an upward trend line, although as you we have a downSWING since Nixon and Reagan, but I feel that the pendulum has gone about as far right as it can go. But my theme here is, even if we keep making progress on human rights it will be slow because each time we get more people enjoying a more relaxed lifestyle, those same people get more complacent.