Iran is clear and steady. They committed to the ceasefire because they know it would calm things down. While they control Hormuz they hold the dominant position.
US keeps trying new threats but it is knee jerk reaction and not thought out.
Euro warships to control Hormuz must amuse the Yemen warriors. So warships around bttm Sth Africa. Big fuel bill of course.
Iran only needs to stay the course. Each day the global economy faces new stesses. EEAsoan fishing has all but stopped. Ltr diesel up from 83 cents to $2.23. they got a relief of 9 cents. But not nearly enough to go to sea.
The GCC countries waiting for US to rescue them. But the US plan is more war. War until no missiles left.
Isreal is pushing Trump to send troops. But There will be a big army waiting there to fight them.
What a quagmire for the US.
The Big Serge analysis linked above is profound. Worth Close Reading:
(excerpt)…..,America has found a way to wage war on a state more populous and vast than France or Germany — a state with ninety million people, a sophisticated military apparatus, and decades of preparation for exactly this kind of confrontation — without suffering the kind of casualties that would make continued prosecution of the war politically impossible. This is a genuine strategic innovation, and it deserves to be analyzed with the seriousness it commands.…..
Iran bombs US navy ship and south korean vessel. Brent crude spikes to $119 . Spirit Air forced to shutdown with 17,000 job loses. Trump panic and prepares for ground invasion
It’s clear the US was planning escalation, seeking to knock over whatever Iran was trying to rebuild following the February-March US aggression, used Israel to break the illusion of ceasefire to escalate, and is attempting to dismantle parts of Iranian defenses particularly along the coasts;
This will continue the same way the US has maintained cycles of fake talks and escalation vis-a-vis Russia in Ukrainen;
Essentially this is “mowing the grass,” rather than “paving the lawn” because US military industrial production simply is incapable of providing the capabilities to do the latter;
policy toward Iran mirrors its Russian policy, placing multi-domain pressure on Iran in the hopes synergies between pressures cause something somewhere to crack;
There is also the continued controlled demolition of West Asian energy exports & the global economy – forcing China to replace up to 50% of its imported energy;
by cutting off other nations in Asia, including US proxies/potential proxies, it increases energy dependence in Asia on the US, thus enhancing US leverage in disrupting their respective ties to China, just as the US did to Europe regarding Russian energy exports. Meanwhile, the US continues preparing Europe to confront Russia more directly amid the US proxy war in Ukraine;
the US is using a “division of labor” to maintain the war in Ukraine through Europe while pivoting primary attention to its war on Iran and further encircling China in the process;
Whether it works or not is up to the multipolar world – it has prepared for this campaign of global aggression and is weathering it – but so far appears unable to deter the US from escalating;
Tehran Times @TehranTimes79 Jun 28 The United States is currently conducting the largest logistical operation in its history - a statistical analysis.
This 30-second video shows the American logistical air activity in West Asia over the past seven days only (accelerated by 20,000 times). At the same time, this activity continues around the clock for 76 days.
We are talking about the largest aerial supply operation in American military history, which exceeds the scale of the 2003 Iraq War. This level of cargo transport far surpasses routine supply replenishment.
All American strategic warehouses in the region are almost fully stocked and continue to reach their maximum capacity.
The US military is not spending billions of dollars on empty threats or show-off maneuvers. All of this indicates readiness for a preemptive strike and possibly the start of a ground operation.
The plan is working. Keep Americans distracted by a so-called war with Iran. Details such as in this thread are not important. What’s important is that the operation continues until midterms. Certainly seems like there’s all this action, back and forth, etc. It’s just a bunch of delaying tactics. When the time comes, there will be some “major escalation”, and an ensuing “patriotic media blitz”, all so that calling off or suspending the midterms can be “justified”. A true October surprise. You’ll see.
He has made from Iran a question of personal pride, and he needs to demonstrate his Maga basis that he is right, unless he can safely use Israel as a scapegoat.
The only limit if himself and his croonies lose big money.
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