Intuition

Or “gut feelings” as most would put it. That sort of knowing but you can’t really explain how or why. The phenomenon that some credit for their major successes in life and breakthroughs in discovery. Yet, when you try the same it ends up failing. It’s sort of like the equivalent to “follow your heart” (despite the fact the heart does little more than pump blood).
Just how accurate is intuition and gut feelings? Is there any scientific basis for it functioning well? Or are we just getting the hits and not the misses?

http://www.medicaldaily.com/your-gut-feeling-way-more-just-feeling-science-intuition-325338
There is something to it according to this ^^
Personally, I’ve never doubted the reality of gut feelings. AAMOF, I’ve had more success following my intuition than analyzing every damn thing.

I checked that article but it doesn’t sound very convincing to me.

The article has some good points but just barely hints at what is really going on. Perhaps that is why you didn’t find it very convincing.
What we refer to as intuition is a combination of many factors including neurological wiring, education, experience, visual and auditory cues etc. I’m not going too deep into this as it isn’t my area of expertise, but take Steve Jobs as an example. When he came back to Apple Computer he didn’t conduct focus groups to see what people wanted. If he had his return would have been a failure. Instead, Jobs looked at the computer market, saw what was missing and had Apple’s engineers create products to fill the gaps he saw. Why didn’t anyone else see those gaps? Some people did. One of my friends and I were in the very early stages of working on a portable device that you could plug into your computer, copy music, then take to your car and plug into the stereo. A few months after we started Apple announced the iPod.
No one, as far as I know, anticipated the iMac, that cute little R2D2 lookalike that turned around Apple’s fortunes. Other Jobs’ ideas didn’t fare so well. Does anyone remember the Apple Cube? It was a small, expensive, underpowered box lacking expansion capabilities. Gut instincts aren’t always correct. Successful people are not afraid to fail.

Intuition, where the unconscious “mind” meets the conscious mind? :cheese:

The article has some good points but just barely hints at what is really going on. Perhaps that is why you didn't find it very convincing. What we refer to as intuition is a combination of many factors including neurological wiring, education, experience, visual and auditory cues etc. I'm not going too deep into this as it isn't my area of expertise, but take Steve Jobs as an example. When he came back to Apple Computer he didn't conduct focus groups to see what people wanted. If he had his return would have been a failure. Instead, Jobs looked at the computer market, saw what was missing and had Apple's engineers create products to fill the gaps he saw. Why didn't anyone else see those gaps? Some people did. One of my friends and I were in the very early stages of working on a portable device that you could plug into your computer, copy music, then take to your car and plug into the stereo. A few months after we started Apple announced the iPod. No one, as far as I know, anticipated the iMac, that cute little R2D2 lookalike that turned around Apple's fortunes. Other Jobs' ideas didn't fare so well. Does anyone remember the Apple Cube? It was a small, expensive, underpowered box lacking expansion capabilities. Gut instincts aren't always correct. Successful people are not afraid to fail.
In fact they are so often incorrect that they are completely unreliable. It's also too easy to remember the successes and forget the failures--confirmation bias. Lois

So you CAN know something without being aware of how you know it (aka, intuition). The problem is that you can also THINK that you know something without being aware of how you know it (and be completely wrong).

Question:
Does intuition work better in anticipating danger or fortune?
If intuition is evolved from the survival instinct, it would seem to me that it occurs more often as a sense of warning of impending danger than a sense of impending good fortune.
Are there any statistics on this?

Question: Does intuition work better in anticipating danger or fortune? If intuition is evolved from the survival instinct, it would seem to me that it occurs more often as a sense of warning of impending danger than a sense of impending good fortune. Are there any statistics on this?
I don't know about statistics or specific research on "intuition". But let's think this out a bit. (And I am using my own definition of intuition, i.e., "Knowing" something without being aware of how we know it, or believing something to be true without awareness of any supporting evidence.) Before, we as a species, had larger brains, we probably did not have much capacity to reflect on how we knew something is true. IOW we could not very well verify what we felt to be true, by sorting out what actual evidence there was to support the feeling. We could not even, very well, use the process of thinking thru and conceptualizing something to be true by evidence, in the first place. Knowing something before we were able to be aware of how we knew it, was necessarily a part of survival to reproduction. At that point we pretty much ONLY had intuition. So, I think that your question comes down to which things were more important to know, in order to survive to reproduction. e.g., knowing that there is something around the bend, that is life-threatening or knowing there is something around the bend that is life-enhancing. I don't know which was MORE important in order to survive and reproduce, but I am pretty sure that both were critical to some degree.
Question: Does intuition work better in anticipating danger or fortune? If intuition is evolved from the survival instinct, it would seem to me that it occurs more often as a sense of warning of impending danger than a sense of impending good fortune. Are there any statistics on this?
I don't know of any statistics. But you hint at the right point. Intuition surely is not a reliable source of truths. But it is a source of hypotheses, i.e. potentially truths. Now, depending on the situation and the person you are, you can do several things with your intuitions: - if you are a scientist, you start to find the proof, with math if possible, or with more precise observations or experiments - if you are an entrepreneur, you try to get the information you can, but still you act on it, even if you have no rigorous proof that you are right - if you feel immediate danger, you flight before you are sure that there really is something threatening - if you are thinking about your future (e.g. if you will marry her, or if you go back to college,...) you might talk to others, who also do not have complete information, but might have other intuitions, things you might not have thought of until now - if it is metaphysically impossible to get any knowledge, you give up your intuition, or you become a believer I think everybody can extend the list. For short, one can think about System 1]:
Kahneman describes two different ways the brain forms thoughts: System 1: Fast, automatic, frequent, emotional, stereotypic, subconscious System 2: Slow, effortful, infrequent, logical, calculating, conscious Kahneman covers a number of experiments which purport to highlight the differences between these two thought processes, and how they arrive at different results even given the same inputs. Terms and concepts include coherence, attention, laziness, association, jumping to conclusions and how one forms judgments. The System 1 vs System 2 debate dives into the reasoning or lack thereof for human decision making, with big implications for market research.
Just how accurate is intuition and gut feelings? Is there any scientific basis for it functioning well? Or are we just getting the hits and not the misses?
So, no, often it is not accurate, but if it would not work at all humanity probably would have extinguished already long ago, and science would not have developed.
Question: Does intuition work better in anticipating danger or fortune? If intuition is evolved from the survival instinct, it would seem to me that it occurs more often as a sense of warning of impending danger than a sense of impending good fortune. Are there any statistics on this?
I don't know of any statistics. But you hint at the right point. Intuition surely is not a reliable source of truths. But it is a source of hypotheses, i.e. potentially truths. Now, depending on the situation and the person you are, you can do several things with your intuitions: - if you are a scientist, you start to find the proof, with math if possible, or with more precise observations or experiments - if you are an entrepreneur, you try to get the information you can, but still you act on it, even if you have no rigorous proof that you are right - if you feel immediate danger, you flight before you are sure that there really is something threatening - if you are thinking about your future (e.g. if you will marry her, or if you go back to college,...) you might talk to others, who also do not have complete information, but might have other intuitions, things you might not have thought of until now - if it is metaphysically impossible to get any knowledge, you give up your intuition, or you become a believer I think everybody can extend the list. For short, one can think about System 1]:
Kahneman describes two different ways the brain forms thoughts: System 1: Fast, automatic, frequent, emotional, stereotypic, subconscious System 2: Slow, effortful, infrequent, logical, calculating, conscious Kahneman covers a number of experiments which purport to highlight the differences between these two thought processes, and how they arrive at different results even given the same inputs. Terms and concepts include coherence, attention, laziness, association, jumping to conclusions and how one forms judgments. The System 1 vs System 2 debate dives into the reasoning or lack thereof for human decision making, with big implications for market research.
Just how accurate is intuition and gut feelings? Is there any scientific basis for it functioning well? Or are we just getting the hits and not the misses?
So, no, often it is not accurate, but if it would not work at all humanity probably would have extinguished already long ago, and science would not have developed. Now I have an intuitive feeling that this might possibly be connected to our bicameral mind. It is often said that women have better intuition than men in certain areas. I cannot copy the format but here is a link that explains the characteristics of the left (analytical) and right (intuitive) side of the brain: http://www.web-us.com/brain/right_left_brain_characteristics.htm

I think most people end up referiring to it as a magical ability or “other way of knowing”.

I think most people end up referiring to it as a magical ability or "other way of knowing".
That would fit in the last point in my list, second option, or just taking something granted without enough logical/empirical support. We should take care that we do not condemn intuition in general, just because people might be too lazy to delve deeper into the question if their intuitions are correct. Again, I think without intuitions humanity would not have survived until here; without intuition, science would not progress (or at least not so fast as it does). But taking intuition as a source of (infallable) truths is of course extremely dangerous.
I cannot copy the format but here is a link that explains the characteristics of the left (analytical) and right (intuitive) side of the brain: http://www.web-us.com/brain/right_left_brain_characteristics.htm
What if the Left/Right Brain model is a mistaken myth, based more on sparse data combined with some scientist's strong intuition, along with some good popular writing skills, than any empirical study? Where's that leave all this?
Researchers debunk myth of 'right-brained' and 'left-brained' personality traits Date: August 14, 2013 Source: University of Utah Health Sciences https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/08/130814190513.htm . . . newly released research findings from University of Utah neuroscientists assert that there is no evidence within brain imaging that indicates some people are right-brained or left-brained. For years in popular culture, the terms left-brained and right-brained have come to refer to personality types, with an assumption that some people use the right side of their brain more, while some use the left side more. Following a two-year study, University of Utah researchers have debunked that myth through identifying specific networks in the left and right brain that process lateralized functions. Lateralization of brain function means that there are certain mental processes that are mainly specialized to one of the brain's left or right hemispheres. During the course of the study, researchers analyzed resting brain scans of 1,011 people between the ages of seven and 29. In each person, they studied functional lateralization of the brain measured for thousands of brain regions -- finding no relationship that individuals preferentially use their left -brain network or right- brain network more often. "It's absolutely true that some brain functions occur in one or the other side of the brain. Language tends to be on the left, attention more on the right. But people don't tend to have a stronger left- or right-sided brain network. It seems to be determined more connection by connection, " said Jeff Anderson, M.D., Ph.D., lead author of the study, which is formally titled "An Evaluation of the Left-Brain vs. Right-Brain Hypothesis with Resting State Functional Connectivity Magnetic Resonance Imaging." It is published in the journal PLOS ONE this month. ...

Just because we can’t identify the source of a feeling doesn’t mean it doesn’t have a source. There is no reason to think it comes from magic.

I cannot copy the format but here is a link that explains the characteristics of the left (analytical) and right (intuitive) side of the brain: http://www.web-us.com/brain/right_left_brain_characteristics.htm
What if the Left/Right Brain model is a mistaken myth, based more on sparse data combined with some scientist's strong intuition, along with some good popular writing skills, than any empirical study? Where's that leave all this?
Researchers debunk myth of 'right-brained' and 'left-brained' personality traits Date: August 14, 2013 Source: University of Utah Health Sciences https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/08/130814190513.htm . . . newly released research findings from University of Utah neuroscientists assert that there is no evidence within brain imaging that indicates some people are right-brained or left-brained. For years in popular culture, the terms left-brained and right-brained have come to refer to personality types, with an assumption that some people use the right side of their brain more, while some use the left side more. Following a two-year study, University of Utah researchers have debunked that myth through identifying specific networks in the left and right brain that process lateralized functions. Lateralization of brain function means that there are certain mental processes that are mainly specialized to one of the brain's left or right hemispheres. During the course of the study, researchers analyzed resting brain scans of 1,011 people between the ages of seven and 29. In each person, they studied functional lateralization of the brain measured for thousands of brain regions -- finding no relationship that individuals preferentially use their left -brain network or right- brain network more often. "It's absolutely true that some brain functions occur in one or the other side of the brain. Language tends to be on the left, attention more on the right. But people don't tend to have a stronger left- or right-sided brain network. It seems to be determined more connection by connection, " said Jeff Anderson, M.D., Ph.D., lead author of the study, which is formally titled "An Evaluation of the Left-Brain vs. Right-Brain Hypothesis with Resting State Functional Connectivity Magnetic Resonance Imaging." It is published in the journal PLOS ONE this month. ...
I am not going to dismiss that experiment, but it seems to me that measuring brain activity while the brain is *at rest* might give a false answer to the question of *active brain* functions, let alone *debunk* the proposition of right/left brain orientation while processing information. The author clearly admits that each side has *special* abilities, but these were discovered by active brain functions, not when at rest. One cannot prove or debunk that a car has the ability to get 100mpg, while it is standing in a parking lot, but perhaps I am misunderstanding the term *rest state*.
Question: Does intuition work better in anticipating danger or fortune?
I've been thinking more about this. When we have an intuition(think that we know something without being aware of how we know it, or if we are more rational, and as GdB suggests, we form a hypothesis, without understanding the basis for the hypothesis) we are aware of that belief or hypothesis, itself. The question occurs, to me, what signals that awareness of the 'intuition"? People often use the expression, "My gut tells me...". (Personally, I don't pay attention to unusual feelings in that part of my body, as a cue, for adjusting my thinking, as I assume that it is most likely a product of digestional issues.) But I sometimes feel an uncomfortable sensation in my chest area (some might say heart) that I am unsure of the source, when I am pondering things for which I have no clarity. So perhaps, when someone becomes aware of an intuition, the occasion for that awareness, i.e., the signal, is a feeling. The feeling, then prompts the formation of a narrative, or hypothesis, that we call an intuition. For myself, if the feeling were pleasant, I would probably write it off as my being positively hopeful, or optimistic or excited about something that is on the horizon or imminent. If the feeling was uncomfortable, I would probably be more motivated to come up with a narrative or hypothesis re: the source of this unexplained uncomfortable feeling.

More on “intuition” and confirmation bias. Here’s a tiny example.
When phones first came out with cameras, I wondered, “Who in his right mind would want a camera in a phone. What a useless idea.” That was my gut feeling. I don’t usually bring that up.
I also thought at one time that my first marriage would last forever. Another gut feeling that bit the dust.
I could probably come up with a dozen more–and I don’t like to admit that any of those gut feelings were wrong. But I’ll gladly talk about the ones that were right.
Lois

I personally don’t believe in premonitions because of personal experience. There have been many times I’ve had premonitions, and I mean incredibly strong “gut” feelings that something is going to happen… for example, that I’m going to win the lottery. I once woke up one morning with the profound conviction that I was going to meet a woman that day. It was so strong, I was looking over my shoulder all day. I’ve also had negative premonitions. I used to have strong feelings that my car was going to break down that day, or that a family member was going to die. Nothing ever happened. The time my car DID break down, and the time my brother died of a stroke, were not accompanied by the slightest psychic hint that anything was wrong. So I’ve learned to pretty much ignore them when I have them.

I personally don't believe in premonitions because of personal experience. There have been many times I've had premonitions, and I mean incredibly strong "gut" feelings that something is going to happen... for example, that I'm going to win the lottery. I once woke up one morning with the profound conviction that I was going to meet a woman that day. It was so strong, I was looking over my shoulder all day. I've also had negative premonitions. I used to have strong feelings that my car was going to break down that day, or that a family member was going to die. Nothing ever happened. The time my car DID break down, and the time my brother died of a stroke, were not accompanied by the slightest psychic hint that anything was wrong. So I've learned to pretty much ignore them when I have them.
I think that there is an important distinction between the terms "intuition" and "premonition". "Premonition" pretty much blatantly suggests a supernatural ability to know something (otherwise unpredictable) that will occur in the future. Anything deemed "super"-natural is bullshit. There is only the natural. There is nothing beyond the natural. Some people probably do, also, consider "intuition" to be supernatural. In that interpretation, "intuition" would also be bullshit. But I think that most people think of "intuition" as a good or bad feeling about something, that is much less specific than a "premonition". We can have good or bad feelings about prospective situations, without being aware of the source of those good or bad feelings. That is natural.