How can climate be predictable if weather is chaotic?



Sabine Hossenfelder explaining chaos

0:35 The Lorenz Model

1:57 Properties of the Lorenz Model

If you lasted this long, we get to climate at about 5:03 The Lorenz Model with Forcing

Introducing a factor, f=Radiative Forcing

We haven’t integrated the chaos effect into our common thinking. Everybody knows the butterfly effect meme, but that’s about it. It’s a weird idea, that you can predict that we can’t predict. It’s almost anti-science too, since you’re saying it’s an effect that we most likely will never be able to calculate. This was a suggested video when I clicked on the above.

that you can predict that we can’t predict.
Yes, but within specific parameters.

Get’s us back to a fundamental truth about the evolution of creation - it’s not about some ideal truth, it’s about close enough. :slight_smile:

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Robert Hazen explains this in his lectures.

Minerals may offer a key to understanding how common life is in the universe

Our planet teems with life in even the most improbable places such as deep caves, undersea vents, or acidic hot springs. But is Earth the norm in the universe or the exception? Scientific and philosophical discourse on the prospects for life beyond Earth has long tended to gravitate towards two poles: on the one hand, viewing life on this planet as a sign of a cosmic imperative; or on the other, as a fluke unlikely to have been repeated anywhere else.

For Robert Hazen, an astrobiologist and mineralogist based at the Carnegie Institution for Science in Washington, D.C., neither pole offers a satisfying paradigm. Instead, Hazen and a group of colleagues are applying a new set of statistical methodologies to map the continuum of probabilities for the chemical reactions related to life’s origin — giving insights into how and where to look for evidence of life outside of Earth’s bounds.

“You can think of the origin of life as a sequential number of chemical reactions leading from the geosphere to the biosphere,” Hazen says. To understand the probability of finding those reactions on a given planet, he says, we need to know both the probability that an individual reaction will occur in any instance and the probability that, given the surface area and time scale of an Earth-like planet, the reaction will have occurred at some point, somewhere.