https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/24/rapidly-strengthening-harvey-forecast-to-slam-east-texas-as-major-hurricane-and-stall/
Because Harvey is positioned over extremely warm waters, the National Hurricane Center predicts that the storm, which was a tropical depression on Wednesday,
will intensify further and make landfall as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds Friday night or early Saturday.
The general computer model consensus is that Harvey will make landfall Friday night or Saturday morning between Port Mansfield and Sargent, Texas,
southwest of Galveston, the zone under a hurricane warning. The biggest population center in this area is Corpus Christi — which may end up very close to the landfall location.
The five-day “cone of uncertainty," an illustration of where the storm may track, is squashed down to a circle, indicating that after coming ashore,
the storm may stall, unleashing its wrath over the same general area through at least Monday or Tuesday. ...
Areas along the middle and upper Texas coast may see 15 to 25 inches of rain, with a few areas receiving as much as 35 inches,
although it is impossible to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rain will fall. ...
Storm surge
The Hurricane Center predicts 6 to 12 feet of water — above normally dry land — inundating coastal areas immediately to the east and north of the landfall location.
That amount is based on the assumption that Harvey makes landfall as a Category 3 hurricane. But the surge could be even higher (or lower)
if the storm is stronger (or weaker) and will be adjusted as the forecast evolves. It is critical that affected residents heed evacuation orders.
https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/900704760248107009
"High ocean heat content along Hurricane Harvey's path will allow for continued and unhindered rapid intensification today and Friday. Very dangerous!"
preparation and safety tips
https://weather.com/safety/hurricane
Flood insurance, now what?
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/flood-insurance-could-be-a-problem-post-harvey
I am in Houston, hysteria has taken hold. The stores are sold out of bread and water, a lot of people on the road are driving with a high anxiety it seems(I saw four near miss car wrecks and two actual wrecks on the way in). I have to wonder if part of this hysteria is the internet hype, stories with titles like “Grave danger” and “Life threatening” and “worst in 50 yrs”. Although as a city we did learn our lesson from Ike and Rita, no power for weeks, looting, fighting for gas and food, no one is looking forward to that again.
I am in Houston, hysteria has taken hold. The stores are sold out of bread and water, a lot of people on the road are driving with a high anxiety it seems(I saw four near miss car wrecks and two actual wrecks on the way in). I have to wonder if part of this hysteria is the internet hype, stories with titles like "Grave danger" and "Life threatening" and "worst in 50 yrs". Although as a city we did learn our lesson from Ike and Rita, no power for weeks, looting, fighting for gas and food, no one is looking forward to that again.
I hope you're situated on high ground and have your provisions in order.
The reports are all sounding pretty dire and the way that thing blew up when it hit the warm Gulf waters is pretty impressive.
This satellite loop makes it look like it's already dumping hard in your area.
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
Good luck.
I am in Houston, hysteria has taken hold. The stores are sold out of bread and water, a lot of people on the road are driving with a high anxiety it seems(I saw four near miss car wrecks and two actual wrecks on the way in). I have to wonder if part of this hysteria is the internet hype, stories with titles like "Grave danger" and "Life threatening" and "worst in 50 yrs". Although as a city we did learn our lesson from Ike and Rita, no power for weeks, looting, fighting for gas and food, no one is looking forward to that again.
Which is why it's a good idea for people to be forewarned and forearmed--and I don't mean with guns, though, in Texas, they probably will be.
Lois
Also, don’t look to the Federal government under Trump to help out. To Trump and the Republicans it would look like Socialism! to give aid. Texans should be able to help themselves, after all. Stands to reason, if the federal gummint helps them they’ll get fat and lazy and won’t do anything for themselves and will keep on expecting handouts.
LL
Also, don't look to the Federal government under Trump to help out. To Trump and the Republicans it would look like Socialism! to give aid. Texans should be able to help themselves, after all. Stands to reason, if the federal gummint helps them they'll get fat and lazy and won't do anything for themselves and will keep on expecting handouts.
LL
President Trump's administration has been preparing for months for what is forecast to be an especially active hurricane season. Hope the departments can make President Trump proud. I noticed Texas had counties applying for disaster aid yesterday, ahead of the storm.
I am in Houston, hysteria has taken hold. The stores are sold out of bread and water, a lot of people on the road are driving with a high anxiety it seems(I saw four near miss car wrecks and two actual wrecks on the way in). I have to wonder if part of this hysteria is the internet hype, stories with titles like "Grave danger" and "Life threatening" and "worst in 50 yrs". Although as a city we did learn our lesson from Ike and Rita, no power for weeks, looting, fighting for gas and food, no one is looking forward to that again.
Don't you think it's a good idea to warn people of what's coming? Is that Internet or media hype? Should they just not say anything but "Que sera, sera?"
Lois
President Trump's administration has been preparing for months
Really now? So you say? Does anyone from within government say so?
Got any supporting information to let us in on some of these supposed 'preparations'?
Starting hurricane season without leaders of NOAA and FEMA should 'scare the hell out of everybody'
By Brandon Miller, CNN Meteorologist
Updated 11:40 AM ET, Sat June 3, 2017
http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/02/us/noaa-fema-vacancy/index.html
President Trump's administration has been preparing for months
Really now? So you say? Does anyone from within government say so?
Got any supporting information to let us in on some of these supposed 'preparations'?
Starting hurricane season without leaders of NOAA and FEMA should 'scare the hell out of everybody'
By Brandon Miller, CNN Meteorologist
Updated 11:40 AM ET, Sat June 3, 2017
http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/02/us/noaa-fema-vacancy/index.html
Aug. 25 (UPI) -- President Donald Trump on Friday signed a presidential disaster declaration to make federal funds available to Texas as Hurricane Harvey bears down on the coast.
Also, don't look to the Federal government under Trump to help out. To Trump and the Republicans it would look like Socialism! to give aid. Texans should be able to help themselves, after all. Stands to reason, if the federal gummint helps them they'll get fat and lazy and won't do anything for themselves and will keep on expecting handouts.
LL
Our state has a budget surplus; has been that way for nearly two decades. (Odd, this is directly thanks to George Bush and Rick Perry, i will explain if need be.) We do have a pension debt problem I won't elaborate on though. But we have nearly 10 billion for "rainy days". Texans are notoriously proud and much more unified than a lot of the country. We will accept help and since it's our own money any way the federal government has an obligation to help.
It's not that bad yet, but I read that Rockport and Corpus Christi were hit very hard. Houston is mostly getting just downpours. I hope everyone is safe in the more affected areas though, my company will likely be volunteering to help clean up.
Also, don't look to the Federal government under Trump to help out. To Trump and the Republicans it would look like Socialism! to give aid. Texans should be able to help themselves, after all. Stands to reason, if the federal gummint helps them they'll get fat and lazy and won't do anything for themselves and will keep on expecting handouts.
LL
Our state has a budget surplus; has been that way for nearly two decades. (Odd, this is directly thanks to George Bush and Rick Perry, i will explain if need be.) We do have a pension debt problem I won't elaborate on though. But we have nearly 10 billion for "rainy days". Texans are notoriously proud and much more unified than a lot of the country. We will accept help and since it's our own money any way the federal government has an obligation to help.
It's not that bad yet, but I read that Rockport and Corpus Christi were hit very hard. Houston is mostly getting just downpours. I hope everyone is safe in the more affected areas though, my company will likely be volunteering to help clean up.Good to hear from you Waylon.
About that surplus ??
Texas accounts for 1/3 Of all American oil reserves, unemployment is average at 4.3%, but Texas Railroad Commissioner David Porter announced that, as of June, “a record-breaking 297,800 Texans appeared on oil and gas industry payrolls.”[1] These jobs pay much more that service industry jobs or manufacturing jobs with a median wage of $56,587 and oil rich states much higher[2]. I can tell you personally, I make nearly $70,000 in this industry. That’s more money spent in the state along with property tax that makes up some contributing factors. Rick Perry lowered taxes and regulations on this industry, following the trends of his predecessor, George W. Bush. Bush is criticized for not policing the environmental effects of this trend, but on the other hand he passed a law forcing power plants owners to buy a certain amount of renewable energy a year, leading tx to become the nation leader in producing wind energy, consequently creating more jobs.[3] In 2015, 88.9% of collected tax revenue came from sales tax and gross receipts[4], basically we make more money so we spend more money creating more tax revenue. Also, George Bush enacted another law concerning alcohol and drug education; a subset of which has brought the state a massive amount of revenue dispersed locally and state wide. If you get a D.W.I., regardless of the circumstances, you are going to pay a minimum of a $3000 fine to the state aswell as another fine to the local court system. The average cost of a D.W.I. here is $7000.00. They are looking for the opportunity to charge anyone with a D.W.I. I promise.
To be fair, it is speculated this will be the last year of this surplus and with this storm on top of other factors i could see how that could be true. Yes these have had many negative effects on the environment;working in many of the refineries I can tell you it is disgusting, especially propylene refineries(think Koch). But with the choice of a good living for my children or standing heavily outnumbered in support of my principles I’ll choose my children.
[1] Brick, Micheal.
“How Many Jobs In Texas Are Related To Oil,Gas? Go Figure.”,
The Houston Chronicle,
25, September 2014 https://www.google.com/amp/www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/amp/In-Texas-Oil-Boom-Job-Abound-Give-or-Take-5772992.php
[2] Ausick, Paul.
“The Ten Most Oil Rich States”,
USA Today Money,
23, August 2013,
[3] George W. Bush Wikipedia page
(I am not clear yet on how to properly cite a Wikipedia entry)
[4] Ballotpedia.
Texas State Budget and Finances,
2017,
I am in Houston, hysteria has taken hold. The stores are sold out of bread and water, a lot of people on the road are driving with a high anxiety it seems(I saw four near miss car wrecks and two actual wrecks on the way in). I have to wonder if part of this hysteria is the internet hype, stories with titles like "Grave danger" and "Life threatening" and "worst in 50 yrs". Although as a city we did learn our lesson from Ike and Rita, no power for weeks, looting, fighting for gas and food, no one is looking forward to that again.
Are you srill seeing hysteria on the Internet, radio and television about Hurricane Harvey! Must be quite entertaining.
Also, don't look to the Federal government under Trump to help out. To Trump and the Republicans it would look like Socialism! to give aid. Texans should be able to help themselves, after all. Stands to reason, if the federal gummint helps them they'll get fat and lazy and won't do anything for themselves and will keep on expecting handouts.
LL
President Trump's administration has been preparing for months for what is forecast to be an especially active hurricane season. Hope the departments can make President Trump proud. I noticed Texas had counties applying for disaster aid yesterday, ahead of the storm.
Meanwhile he wants to cut funds for FEMA. Can that blithering idiot get any more stupid?
Also, don't look to the Federal government under Trump to help out. To Trump and the Republicans it would look like Socialism! to give aid. Texans should be able to help themselves, after all. Stands to reason, if the federal gummint helps them they'll get fat and lazy and won't do anything for themselves and will keep on expecting handouts.
LL
Our state has a budget surplus; has been that way for nearly two decades. (Odd, this is directly thanks to George Bush and Rick Perry, i will explain if need be.) We do have a pension debt problem I won't elaborate on though. But we have nearly 10 billion for "rainy days". Texans are notoriously proud and much more unified than a lot of the country. We will accept help and since it's our own money any way the federal government has an obligation to help.
It's not that bad yet, but I read that Rockport and Corpus Christi were hit very hard. Houston is mostly getting just downpours. I hope everyone is safe in the more affected areas though, my company will likely be volunteering to help clean up.
If Texas has a nice surplus, they won't be needing any Federal Funds. That should please Trump who doesn't want to send any, anyway. Let Texas take care of Texas. Why should the rest of the country have to help out a state with surplus funds? The great state of Texas can fix their own flood damage with their surplus.
Sadly this is for real and not a joke, before it’s over, we’re going to find out what happens in Texas doesn’t stay in Texas.
At the very least think oil and chemical refineries and distribution centers.
If this storm slowly rolls along the Gulf Coast, Louisiana and New Orleans will see serious flood damage.
Most news stories that I’ve read regarding the AGW Hurricane connect are a muddle of facts presented following the contrarian script of willfully not connecting dots.
Desperately seeking to soft peddle the connection they rather following contrarian talking points and pose ridiculous questions like "Did global warming cause Harvey?’
rather than focusing on the facts such as they are:
* Global warming is definitely directly related to that hot Gulf of Mexico waters !
* Global warming is definitely directly related to the fact that the atmosphere is holding more moisture and making it available for storm systems such as Harvey to collect and dump.
* Global warming is definitely directly related to the fact that our Jet Stream has gotten weirder and is current causing the stalling and
reversal of Harvey's northward movement, thus multiplying the torrential rains.
* Global warming is definitely directly related to the fact that sea level is rising and thus adding substantial to damaging storm surges.
For those that want to focus on the facts might I suggest couple very informative videos:
Horrendous Hurricane Harvey Tutorial B
Paul Beckwith
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPZO1KtZewA
Horrendous Hurricane Harvey Tutorial A
Paul Beckwith
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0-Os6jYtNo
This is what used to be a 500 or even 1000 year event, unfortunately we have entered a new reality and it has become our new normal.
Does "Hato"] mean anything to anyone?
Hang on there will be others.
Dr. Curry did a workup on the weather computer models and Harvey. It is worth a read for anyone following the computer models.
//judithcurry.com/2017/08/27/hurricane-harvey-long-range-forecasts/
Okay, I've read it.
She reiterates what happened in professor speak.
Her assessment of the forecasting and weather models in general were no great shakes.
Now please explain why do you think that was insightful or worth reading?
What did she write that was of any significance?
The gist of all she says is obvious, there were no special insights and not much to take issue with.
White bread.
I'm just saying.
Although you know Mike, Judith Curry did toss down couple incredibly stupid sentences.
But, my lips are zipped for now.
I think it's time for me to shut up and listen to you.
Please help me understand what you found important and worth pondering in Curry's message.
Quotes would be cool.
I'm genuinely interesting in understanding how you arrive at your outlook.