Nate Silver thinks that Trump isn’t going to get the nomination and believes that Bernie Sanders has stopped his rapid rise in the polls. We’ll see what happens when some of the other Republican candidates start to drop out, if Trump continues to rise in the polls, or if stays flat.
The number one rule for a National Party in selecting a presidential nominee is to select a candidate that can bring their party victory in the national election. If the powers that be in the RNC are thwarted by the success of a populist candidate, who will not likely win the national election, (and in Trump's case might, also, take the Party in unpredictable directions) they will do whatever they can to advance the chances of one of their candidates who is more predictable and more importantly, will have a better chance of winning the national election. The RNC, in doing this, still is bound, however, by the extent to which its constituency will go along. The current constituency is made up of at least a few very important components. One component is a very strong anti-establishment bent. Thus we see the anti-establishment candidates doing relatively well (quite well in Trump's case). But the RNC will always prefer backing an establishment candidate. Another very strong component of Repub constituency is the hard-right crowd, who prefer candidates that express hard-right stances across a broad range of issues. The RNC will often prefer a more moderate candidate, as the more moderate candidate would be more likely bring a better chance of victory in the general election. But they can't get a moderate candidate nominated if the constituency is too hard-right. The other strong component is the religious one. It is very important to many Repubs that the candidate have a strong Christian orientation, of some sort. So one of the reasons, I think that the RNC will prefer Rubio is that he represents the establishment, even if it may be less so than Jeb or Scott or John. (less, simply because he has been in the system not quite as long as those guys). Also, Rubio is very religious, which will satisfy the eaten up with religion part of the constituency but will not represent as much of a liability in the general election as someone like Huckabee, who is all religion. Also, in regards to, at least appearing moderate, Rubio has vastly polished his game, so that he will be able to present himself, to some, as moderate, despite taking hard right stances in actuality. The RNC will prefer someone from a swing state, if they can get one. Rubio is from Florida. If they can win Fla. in the general, that will be significant. Kasich with Ohio, might be better, but he is too moderate for the constituency. Also, to win the general, the Repub candidate needs to appeal to not only independent and casual voters but, additionally who can get some portion of populations that predominately vote Democratic. As to the latter point, Rubio is physically attractive. That counts for something. Some women (both young and old) will vote for him because he is a sweet looking handsome man. (He could leach off even more of the women vote by selecting someone like Fiorina as a running mate. She would have the additional advantage of being a viable attack dog on Hillary who could not be accused of being sexist, because she is a woman.) Also, being Hispanic, Rubio might leach off some of the Hispanic vote from the Democrats. Anything, could happen, but if Walker and Bush continue to go nowhere, big money will eventually switch its allegiance to Rubio. And if Trump hasn't extraordinarily upped his organizational and substance game, by then, (or if he is forced out of the Repub race, in some way), then I think that Rubio will get the nomination. He will need to win in Iowa, because he probably won't win in New Hampshire, but I think Iowa is do-able for him.Tim, lots of neurons in your post. Looks like you are very seriously about the subject. So I will give it a shot. I wouldn’t spend too much time reading all the data. Very few are going to look at the real picture anyway. First ask yourself why Trump put his hat in the ring. And I mean the real reason. Most people can’t see the big picture because they really don’t understand how all the systems work together. Would you agree that the real powers in the back rooms don’t give a shit about immigration right now? That their biggest concerns are in the areas of the Economic Warfare that is going on. And that Chicago along with Obama’s actions with the IMF are screwing up decades of positioning and relinquishing some of the power of our Economic Warfare machine. Our standard of living is based upon the value of the dollar. And four-fifths of the dollars are overseas doing the same thing for other countries. And our Economic Warfare machine has been doing such a good job that the American people now live in a fault sense of reality when it comes to what they think they are owed for the work they do. The Economic Warfare started for the most part in 1919 and works best in secrecy. Now would it surprise you to find out that many of the Republican Fat Cats that donated to outfits that do behind the scenes work have been backing Hillary for several years now? That didn’t sound right. It is not the Republican’s donating the funds that want to back a Democrat, it is the people they pay to get certain task accomplished that are doing this. Trump most likely has been all over them to find a Republican. And they say there is none that qualify, and why don’t you run? If you run we will back you and keep the money on the Republican side. Now we have Trump. Where that is leave us? The Republican Party now needs to back Trump or see a lot of the backroom money go the Hillary. It is funny to watch Trump screw up and put the party in an awkward position. But it is going to be funnier to watch the Democrats try and crucify Trump. They will feel the Republicans are about the dumbest things on earth as they sit drinking a seven dollar cup of coffee thinking they are the smartest of all god’s creatures.
I would put nothing past today’s Republicans. There aren’t enough reasoned voices in the Party to prevent someone like Trump from winning the nomination. I can imagine the Tea Partiers, the Hawks, the rabid anti-abortionists, those for tax cuts at any cost, the misogynists, the corporatists, the fat cats, the racists, the homophobes, the “America is a Christian nation” crowd, (who’s left?) who make up the vast majority of Republicans today jumping on the Trump bandwagon. We’ve already had stranger behavior and stranger bedfellows than that among today’s Republicans. We know from past experience that most Republicans will back a fellow Republican, especially one who speaks their language, no matter what the consequences. They have enormous blind spots created and maintained by reactionary frenzy.
Lois
Oh, and morels are mushrooms.Not to me. And I can’t believe the number of people who don’t know how to spell Wensday. Some idiot started spelling it Wednesday and I guess it caught on.
Oh, and morels are mushrooms.Not to me. And I can’t believe the number of people who don’t know how to spell Wensday. Some idiot started spelling it Wednesday and I guess it caught on. You're a special flower Mike. Or is that special flour?
Oh, and morels are mushrooms.Not to me. And I can’t believe the number of people who don’t know how to spell Wensday. Some idiot started spelling it Wednesday and I guess it caught on. You're a special flower Mike. Or is that special flour? A flower is some thing you would use to water the flour.
Which one of you is taking on the petty, vindictive, Trump role? Maybe you should let it go, before one of you calls the other Rosie O’Donnell.
So back to subject, I am starting to wonder whether Trump would actually be a force for good within the Repub Party, in that he might be a force for bringing them back from their extreme-right-itude. For instance, he just declared a stance on Planned Parenthood that is, essentially, the same as that of the Democrats. Also, he has, historically, and even, in the debate, made a statement that suggests he favors a single-payer health system (which is to the left of the ACA). Perhaps, this is what will bring Trump down as a potential Repub nominee, that is, his eventual revelations that more of his actual beliefs are incompatible with the hard-right views of today’s Repub party.
CC, when we view someone as charismatic, I think that we are responding to them in an unconscious emotionally based way. For someone, like yourself, who has become accustomed to seeing the world with reality colored glasses, i.e., consistently relying on higher mental faculties to interpret the world, I think such an initial unconscious emotionally based view, is simply blown away, in favor of the facts.
Mike, re: the “real powers in the back room”, whatever their ultimate motives are, the #1 objective in choosing a presidential nominee at the party convention, is to choose a member of their party who has a realistic chance of winning in the general election.
The other thing he said, that was a breath of fresh air, was that he had no idea how he would handle this or that. Honesty! Imagine that, versus these doorknob politicians who come up with “policy positions” which you know they aren’t serious about.
My money says he never gets out of the high 20’s in any poll, no matter who drops out.
Mike, re: the "real powers in the back room", whatever their ultimate motives are, the #1 objective in choosing a presidential nominee at the party convention, is to choose a member of their party who has a realistic chance of winning in the general election.The back room don’t care if it is Trump or Hillary. But it can’t be the other runners. This email fiasco is going to get real interesting. If they can’t make it go away, they will make Trump shine.
The Republicans got bad news today. Emails were a big problem for Hillary. Not anymore. She just buried them with the Justice Department. Smart move for the Hillary camp. The judge had a little power over Hillary, but no power over the Justice Department.
Mike, re: the "real powers in the back room", whatever their ultimate motives are, the #1 objective in choosing a presidential nominee at the party convention, is to choose a member of their party who has a realistic chance of winning in the general election.The back room don’t care if it is Trump or Hillary. But it can’t be the other runners... Are you saying that the respective national party committees want the eventual nominees to be Hillary and Trump? That is surely not the case for the RNC. They will take him if they are forced to by their constituents, but it remains unlikely that this will be the case, despite Donald's current phenomenal showing.
I can’t wait to refer to this thread in about a year.
Are you saying that the respective national party committees want the eventual nominees to be Hillary and Trump? That is surely not the case for the RNC. They will take him if they are forced to by their constituents, but it remains unlikely that this will be the case, despite Donald's current phenomenal showing.Look at the election systems used around the world. And tell me you don’t wonder why they even bother to hold an election in some countries. Who do you think helps controls the outcome of a lot of elections around the world? We have secret departments that are experts at this sort of thing. They can only do certain things but those little things add up and can make the difference in the outcome. They don’t have a 100% success. Just look at France and Greece in the last elections. And they sure in the hell blew it in the Ukraine by getting their guy elected, that turn out to be an idiot. If you want to know how long and what kind of power the US has been using in voting areas. Just look at the history of Formosa/Taiwan. There have been books written about the US involvement and how these departments kept the country under Marshall Law for decades to keep their guy in office. My guess is that Carly was going to be the backroom candidate. But Trump threw in his hat. Trump knows what’s going on and knows he’s got a shot of getting the backroom money. That is why he made it clear that he would run Independent if he did not get the Republican nomination. Backroom money is not just one group, it is several groups all working with government departments. No not the national party committees as we know them. But these back room money groups working with the government to control the money and trade of the world have their ways of getting things done. Don’t sell them short. So what is their goal? Simple, to keep the well-oiled money machine working around the world. They don’t care if it is Republican or Democrat. As long as the candidate that wins won’t screw the system up. And all they are doing is hedging the outcome a little. You know I don’t have a problem with most of what they are doing as long as the constitution is protected. This system not only protects the money system but makes it possible to have global fishing laws and stops some countries from selling off the rain forests. These departments will really be needed when we get ready to move the up and coming climate change policies around the world.
So, besides Taiwan, and the Shah of Iran, can you name any of these “secret” actions? We know what a PAC is, and we know that they don’t have to reveal where their money comes from, but I’m not familiar with them working with secret government departments. If they’re secret, I guess that would explain why I don’t know, but how do you know, Mike? This is a Center for Inquiry, we kinda prefer seeing some evidence.
So, besides Taiwan, and the Shah of Iran, can you name any of these "secret" actions? We know what a PAC is, and we know that they don't have to reveal where their money comes from, but I'm not familiar with them working with secret government departments. If they're secret, I guess that would explain why I don't know, but how do you know, Mike? This is a Center for Inquiry, we kinda prefer seeing some evidence.Read Shock Doctrine and Confessions of an Economic Hitman. It's all right there.
So, besides Taiwan, and the Shah of Iran, can you name any of these "secret" actions? We know what a PAC is, and we know that they don't have to reveal where their money comes from, but I'm not familiar with them working with secret government departments. If they're secret, I guess that would explain why I don't know, but how do you know, Mike? This is a Center for Inquiry, we kinda prefer seeing some evidence.Read Shock Doctrine and Confessions of an Economic Hitman. It's all right there. Really? Even "Confessions" talks about the World Bank and USAID, not any actual government insiders. The guy's a crank. "This man is a frothing conspiracy theorist, a vainglorious peddler of nonsense, and yet his book, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, is a runaway bestseller." Mallaby
Are you saying that the respective national party committees want the eventual nominees to be Hillary and Trump? That is surely not the case for the RNC. They will take him if they are forced to by their constituents, but it remains unlikely that this will be the case, despite Donald's current phenomenal showing.Look at the election systems used around the world. And tell me you don’t wonder why they even bother to hold an election in some countries. Who do you think helps controls the outcome of a lot of elections around the world? We have secret departments that are experts at this sort of thing. They can only do certain things but those little things add up and can make the difference in the outcome. They don’t have a 100% success. Just look at France and Greece in the last elections. And they sure in the hell blew it in the Ukraine by getting their guy elected, that turn out to be an idiot. If you want to know how long and what kind of power the US has been using in voting areas. Just look at the history of Formosa/Taiwan. There have been books written about the US involvement and how these departments kept the country under Marshall Law for decades to keep their guy in office. My guess is that Carly was going to be the backroom candidate. But Trump threw in his hat. Trump knows what’s going on and knows he’s got a shot of getting the backroom money. That is why he made it clear that he would run Independent if he did not get the Republican nomination. Backroom money is not just one group, it is several groups all working with government departments. No not the national party committees as we know them. But these back room money groups working with the government to control the money and trade of the world have their ways of getting things done. Don’t sell them short. So what is their goal? Simple, to keep the well-oiled money machine working around the world. They don’t care if it is Republican or Democrat. As long as the candidate that wins won’t screw the system up. And all they are doing is hedging the outcome a little. You know I don’t have a problem with most of what they are doing as long as the constitution is protected. This system not only protects the money system but makes it possible to have global fishing laws and stops some countries from selling off the rain forests. These departments will really be needed when we get ready to move the up and coming climate change policies around the world. I don't think things are as simple as your conspiratorial mindset seems to have conjured up.
The Republicans got bad news today. Emails were a big problem for Hillary. Not anymore. She just buried them with the Justice Department. Smart move for the Hillary camp. The judge had a little power over Hillary, but no power over the Justice Department.Which cadidates for the Republican nomination do you think don't have private email accounts that they have also used for government business communications? Get real. Lois
The Republicans got bad news today. Emails were a big problem for Hillary. Not anymore. She just buried them with the Justice Department. Smart move for the Hillary camp. The judge had a little power over Hillary, but no power over the Justice Department.Which cadidates for the Republican nomination do you think don't have private email accounts that they have also used for government business communications? Get real. Lois Lois, I don’t think anyone cares or gives a damn about using a private account for business communications. But it is the lying that is bothering everyone. I don’t think we will see the emails until after the election. I know I am sick and tired of how the government is operating. Just look at the IRS and those emails. Tens of millions for attorneys and years of legal battles for a department to turn over information to congress.