It’s not study growth if for every baby born three Silents and boomers die of old age. There won’t be any doubling. You can’t have doubling with such stats. Not only that, if a pregnant woman gets COVID, that’s a risk for both the mother and fetus that can cause one or both to die. So there’s that. So five die and one is born. Where is the doubling?
Exactly.
Again, there is no net growth with one or two children born while Silent and Boomers are dying faster than one or two child families. You obviously are not getting this.
1% with 3% deaths. No doubling. What are you not getting? You can’t have doubling if there is a child limit to families and the oldest generation is dying off faster than that. It can’t happen. You cannot have population growth if the more people die than are born.
I appreciate you love your math, but the ease with which you reduce things is something to behold.
We’re talking about a living planet and the reality of what all of its inhabitant are going through, that is a major destructive transition that will rock everything we’ve built and imagine to its foundation - net growth is a mental exercise, a tracking tool, not some god (as in “everything”).
All that math is needed for a complex modern society, sadly we’re heading back to the dark ages, that math won’t be helping much for the new realities. In a hundred years population have plummeted. But the global warming driven physical changes will continue unfold slowing. There isn’t going to be any kind of “armageddon,” at least not on a global scale. Locally, there will be some of that, ugly, ugly days coming. Still, there’s always that morning after, and the survivors will have to get on with living, until the next event. Earth certainly does.
People, will always looking for a better place, and Earth will always bounces back as she adapts to the new geophysical realities of the era. Odds are pretty good that some regions will remain livable for a long time. But the days of us taking things for granted are numbered. We deluded ourselves into believing we could force our will upon natural forces, without paying a steep price.
The contiguous United States suffered 18 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2022, according to NOAA, tied for the third-highest number in inflation-adjusted data going back to 1980. Only 2020, with 22 billion-dollar weather disasters, and 2021, with 20, had more. NOAAalso reported that 2022 ranked as the 18th-warmest year since 1895.
You know, it’s obvious you don’t understand what I am saying. There is that scenario, but from what I’m gathering, you don’t want to discuss that or even believe it could happen. There is always more than one scenario and a hard and fast statement about humans isn’t possible. There is always more than one outcome due to numerous possibilities, but you are stuck on only one scenario. There can be more deaths than births. It is totally possible IF humans wanted to meet that goal. If all countries would (I know, they won’t, but if they did) deaths would outnumber births. You have to take into account ALL factors, not just one, but you insist on being stuck on just one when it comes to reality and humans. Such a view of only one outcome is, IMO, as bad as religion, because it’s simply not true.
But I already did Mriana. I understand what you are saying. It is just that there are no good solutions to the problem of overpopulation.
ROUGHLY THE SAME NUMBER OF PEOPLE HAVE TO DIE THAN BEING BORN.
How are you going t accomplish that? Of course there are solutions. It’s just that none of them are considered good for human health.
China tried it and then decided it is useless. So now they (and Russia) are acquiring “lebensraum” , i.e following Hitler’s model of increasing “living space” to accommodate an ever-growing population.
In post #4. I posted the list of Good things that increase the world’s population and the Bad things that decrease the world’s population.
We can make voluntary choices to use the bad things to decrease the population, or else Nature will do it for us. Take your pick from the “right” column.
There is no good choice that doesn’t increase the populaton problem .
I have posted this several times before but it bears showing it for any newcomers.
We reached a limit of growth 70 years ago, and experienced famines around the world. Norman Borlaug slowed that with the Green Revolution. Many reacted with the “organic food” movement. What few heard, was Borlaug’s message that we had bought 30 or 40 years, time to seek longer term solutions to the population problem. Instead, constant growth dominated the world economy. Climate change is the symptom of our ignorance, our unwillingness to find ways to live together. Nature doesn’t care about our economic policies.
What’s The Difference Between Fertility Rates and Birth Rates?
Though both measures relate to population growth, a country’s birth rate and fertility rate are noticeably different:
Birth Rate: The total number of births in a year per 1,000 individuals.
Fertility Rate: The total number of births in a year per 1,000 women of reproductive age in a population.
As such, the fertility rate is a more specific measure, which as Britannica highlights, “allows for more efficient and beneficial planning and resource allocation.” Not including immigration, a given area needs an overall total fertility rate of 2.1 to keep a stable population.
Yes, it’s true that fertility rates are going down, usually along with increase of income.
That sounds good but unfortunately it also brings along an unwanted side-effect of labor shortage for carrying an aging population.
This may be what is driving the current laws restricting abortion, which will result in increased population growth. This is truly an existential dilemma.
Yes, there seems to be a natural control factor that kicks in when a population is stressed.
But we are dealing with 8 billion (8,000,000,000) people.
Even 0 .1% growth = 8,000,000
The good thing is that the doubling time will increase to 700 years.
Yet think of what it would take to accommodate a new city with 8 million people every year.
The water crisis is a health crisis. Nearly 1 million people die each year from water, sanitation and hygiene-related diseases which could be reduced with access to safe water or sanitation. Every 2 minutes a child dies from a water-related disease.
Glaciers are melting faster, losing 31% more snow and ice per year than they did 15 years earlier, according to three-dimensional satellite measurements of all the world’s mountain glaciers.
Scientists blame human-caused climate change.
Using 20 years of recently declassified satellite data, scientists calculated that the world’s 220,000 mountain glaciers are losing more than 328 billion tons (298 billion metric tons) of ice and snow per year since 2015, according to a study in Wednesday’s journal Nature. That’s enough melt flowing into the world’s rising oceans to put Switzerland under almost 24 feet (7.2 meters) of water each year.
November 15, 2022
ASU experts predict how water consumption might look in our state, based on the science of today
Editor’s note: This is the third in a three-part series examining water in the Southwest in recognition of the 100th anniversary of the Colorado River Compact. Read the first installment on the history of the Colorado Water Compact and the second installment on what it means for cities, agriculture and the individual.
The landscape at Lake Mead in Arizona looks apocalyptic. Drastically lowered water levels that have left a “bathtub ring” around the perimeter and uncovered junk that was thrown into the reservoir decades ago have changed the ecosystem and impacted the tourism industry.
Will the Valley of the Sun face the same fate?
Climate change has produced a megadrought that has reduced water in the Colorado River, which was already overallocated to the seven states in its basin. Cuts in the water allotments were imposed in 2022, and this summer, the federal government increased those cuts. Arizona will lose about one-fifth of its share. …
Well, the reports are more optimistic than I am. I wish with all my heart that my gut feeling is wrong. But we do so much compartmentalizing when studying these issues, and in the real world, all issues meld into each other and are inter-dependent. Which brings me back to cascading consequences and that BlackSwan tickling away at my belly.
Why do I get the feeling that you think if one baby is born and 3 boomers and/or silent gens die, there will still be doubling. I don’t think it works that way.
Do you realize that Boomers and what is left of the Silent generation outnumber Gen Xers? Not to mention, not all Gen Xers were stupid Duggars. Some were/are, but not all. A small group of Millennials have been brainwashed by the Quiverfull religious extremists, but they are a small number. Once the all the Silent Gen and all of the Boomers die off, which will include some of the Gen Xers, especially the Joners (older Gen Xers), as well as those who are trying for the Darwin Award, there will probably be a drop in population. Not a huge one, but I really don’t believe the doubling rate is as bad you seem to believe it is, especially when you account for all I said. The birth death rate will probably be more like a 1:2 or 3 ratio, as I said before 1 birth for every 2 or 3 boomers who die.
Here’s a small one, apparently minimal consequences so far, if they can get it repaired in short order, but it does underscore the fact that our water distribution network has some big vulnerabilities that can change regional life overnight.
Bishop, CA (March 11, 2023) – Several sections of the concrete-lined channel of LADWP’s Los Angeles Aqueduct collapsed late Friday night approximately two miles south of the town of Olancha. Due to the intense rains at lower elevations, storm water pooled on the west side of certain sections of the aqueduct channel, eroding the supporting soil, leading to the damage.
The damage did not affect U.S. HWY 395 nor any local communities in the area.
Three 20-foot concrete sections on the west side of the open channel of the aqueduct ruptured with four other sections damaged. Water flow in the aqueduct was minimal at the time of the breach. The water supply to Los Angeles is not impacted at this time. Crews have already started the temporary repairs and expect to complete before the next storm system arrives early next week. …
You’re not taking into account the 2 child max I proposed. If you look at the Chinese birth rate v their death rate, you’ll understand why I propose what I propose. Of course, there are a lot of people in the U.S. who won’t go for such a thing, but my point is, with controlled births and the current number of Boomers and older dying off, it would offset the birth rate and birth-death ratio would look totally different. There’d be more deaths than births.
How would you enforce that? So far there are twice as many births as deaths, WORLDWIDE!
But it is true, birth rates are dropping. It is that last 1% that needs to disappear.
Remember, 1% percent growth rate still translates into a doubling time of just 70 years.
I showed you the maths.
Actually think it is more likely that nature will come up with a mass extinction that will take a large portion of the world’s population. The current estimate is that earth can only sustain a population of about 8 billion people and that is where we are at.
But look what climate change has already accomplished. Another 2 degrees warming will result in the displacement of billions of people.
Rising seas could result in 2 billion refugees by 2100
In China it has. That’s why they are moving to a 2 child limit. You can whine all you want about the doubling, but unless you spayed or neuter every single human, you won’t get 0 births and have us all die out. Yes, I said my biggest fear with cats and dogs, but yet I still get my cats spayed or neutered. The point is, very few, and I do mean very few, humans will agree to your proposal of 0 births, allowing ourselves to die out. You’ll be lucky if you get them to agree to no more than 2 children. It’s not just theory. China is having a problem with caring for their older population and having a workforce because there are more old people than young people. Their death rate is higher then their birth rate due to all the old people.
Tradition collides with values. We valued caring for family and hard work, but didn’t pay the worker to maintain the family. We value life, but never in history have we had so many ways to prolong life, so we keep paying for health care for a long painful end of life. We spread out over the world but people still talk like we need to keep growing, as if there is more to discover. We know Empires come and go, but believe our’s is the exception.
