Well, at least we got that straight, thanks.
I’ve always been one of them squares, never thought much of that impulse, or is it need, to ridicule others. Such a cheap way to feel better about oneself. Don’t you think?
I haven’t followed Greta. But isn’t she the climate change child all the big talking snowflakes are using as a shield? I guess all the CO2 scientists are too busy cashing climate checks to step up.
Never going to hear any talk about GSM experts predicting a decade ago the weather we had last winter and the hurricane pattern we are having today.
Have the snowflakes gone completely political and abandoned science altogether?
How many here are backing AOC’s 12 years and its all over?
I have heard that type of talk my whole life. But it was coming from the religious sector. Have the snowflakes now become a religion?
CC, I’ve always been one of them squares, never thought much of that impulse, or is it need, to ridicule others. Who the hell are you talking about? It’s time for your checkup.
Never going to hear any talk about GSM experts predicting a decade ago the weather we had last winter and the hurricane pattern we are having today.
I guess we have different definitions of “predict”, because that’s exactly GW predicts, more and stronger hurricanes and changes to average temps and precipitation. They can’t predict down to the day, but they are very good at predicting trends. Due to the chaos of weather patterns, predicting the daily weather is quite difficult but the overall trends are predictable.
The GSM did not predict more hurricanes. It predicted less hurricanes, but the hurricanes were to be stronger. And yea, climate predictions are trends of several years. The daily stuff is weather and is very unpredictable on a daily bases when it comes to storms. When working on off-shore oil rigs. The weather was changing all the time during the seasonal change. Wind and rain to bright and sunny. The clouds were a lot of the weather. It could be bright and sunny at the rig and looking out a couple miles you could see that it was dark and raining under a cloud bank.
A Russian scientist has a paper out that addresses a lot of the questions with viewpoints of data. www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/S0218127419300131
Only scanned the first seven pages I find it interesting that someone can write so much about climate trends and statistics and puzzling out ‘trend bifurcations’ yet not say a thing about the physics - it seems as though he’s purely working off of observed trends and trying to make them fit whatever it is he’s trying to highlight with Bifurcation thing. Seems like a great mathematical exercise, but what’s it offer so far as understanding what manmade global warming is doing? Can you point out anything in there that tells us anything of substance about the physical aspects of understanding climate change? Or at least tell what’s supposed to significant about their statistical exercise?
... Next, let us consider prehistory of the ATV-models over time from year 1901 for two local climate systems [Fig. 4(e)]: F- F-J-F-sequence occurs for St. Petersburg; JF-JF- J-J-sequence occurs for Vutegra. These sequences illustrate that even close local climate systems can evolve over time in different ways. So, a picture of quasi-homogeneous climate subregions can change over time. Let it occur due to a general climate change tendency within this region. However, why does one of the systems return to its previous kind [St. Petersburg, Fig. 4(e)] and the other one not return [Vutegra, Fig. 4(e)]? The ATV-models can, at least, indicate these facts. Subsequent averaging (seasonal means, annual means, and so on) disre- gards such information. It seems to be nonlogical simplification because any facts (ordinary as well as nonordinary ones) are important for a complete theoretical basis. ... YOHE: CC, I’ve always been one of them squares, never thought much of that impulse, or is it need, to ridicule others. Who the hell are you talking about? It’s time for your checkup.Oh, what's the matter Mike, is pointing out lies ridicule in your world?
What’s wrong with sharing legitimate scientific information untainted by my hand, excepting for passing it on?
Why treat incoming legitimate information as a hostile attack?
Oh yeah, to the right wing mind any attempt to educate them is consider a hostile offensive attack.
Is that last sentence ridicule or the exasperation of decades worth of trying to communicate with the faith-shackled politicos.
It predicted less hurricanes, but the hurricanes were to be stronger.So we get more hurricane impacts.
What the quibble?
Wow gotta dig deep to find anything about climate.
But this seems as good a place as any. So while COVID-19 seems to be getting normalized along with other atrocities, our (Earth’s) shifting Climate Regime is being down right forgotten.
On a different note, looking at some threads this morning, I’ve been reminded of how calling older folk ‘boomers’ in a way that reminds me of spitting on someone’s feet, seems to have become a regular among the Spam/Troll comments I get (and delete) at my blogs. So impressive, tough youth, then they die or get old. Same as it ever was.
Still I’ve got to admit it irritates me getting laughed at for suggesting humanity is firmly set on a course of ultimate self-destruction, that is extinction, along with most, if not all, the rest of complex higher life forms that remain.
I guess it’s easy to laugh at the notion, when one don’t know a damned thing about Earth Systems or Evolution and Earth’s fluctuating climate regimes along with unavoidable cascading impacts. Even easier when couldn’t care less and when one is absolutely uninteresting in learning anything about it. That is, beyond memorizing a few empty contrarian soundbites that impress the ignorant.
Yet somehow it’s been enough to stymie sciencie rationalists and fact-based enthusiasts and those dreaded ‘environmentalists’ {I mean really wtf, why worry about the environment, it’s only our life support system.}.
But I digress from what brought me here. Bringing it back down to the Physical Reality that couldn’t care less how pessimistic my opinion is, or how pollyannaish a fool’s opinion might be. Here’s an interesting newly released evidence based study.
Future of the human climate niche
Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer
PNAS May 26, 2020 117 (21) 11350-11355; first published May 4, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117https: //www - pnas -org/content/117/21/11350
Significance
We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C.This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints.
We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. …
Abstract
All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT).Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation.
We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP.
Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate.
Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a (mean annual temperature) >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara.
As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.