Is There A Simple Solution To The Fermi Paradox?

Pseudoscience and the Paranormal
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When I was in high school I learned about the Fermi paradox and was firmly in the camp of "of course there’s other complex life out there, given the odds

The Drake equation, developed by Frank Drake in 1961, attempts to address this question by estimating the number of potentially communicative civilizations in the galaxy. The equation is: N = R* × fp × ne × fl × fi × fc × L.

Here’s a breakdown of the terms in the Drake equation:

  • N: The number of detectable civilizations in the galaxy.
  • R:*: The average rate of star formation in the Milky Way.
  • fp: The fraction of stars with planetary systems.
  • ne: The average number of planets per star with conditions suitable for life.
  • fl: The fraction of planets suitable for life that actually develop life.
  • fi: The fraction of planets with life that evolve intelligent life.
  • fc: The fraction of intelligent civilizations that develop technology capable of communicating with other civilizations.
  • L: The average lifespan of such civilizations.

But as the decades past and scientists learned a whole lot more about the fabulous complexities within Earth’s geological biology evolution, and I learned from what they were sharing. with ever deeper understanding of Earth’s amazing history, with it’s complexities and coincidence, … I started question that certitude. There’s simple prokaryote life, sure I bet that would be found all over. But creatures, reptiles, mammals - humans, it became easier to believe it is we could be alone.

Doesn’t that make us so much more special, perhaps invite a little more appreciation for what we have. (and so on, …)

I stumbled on this video this evening and love it because it does a great job of enunciating the reasons, behind the feelings I’ve developed.

Is There A Simple Solution To The Fermi Paradox?

Around 2 billion years ago, life had plateaued in complexity, ruined the atmosphere, and was on the verge of self-annihilation. But then something strange and potentially extremely lucky happened that enabled endless new evolutionary paths. The first eukaryote cell was born. This may also explain why there are no aliens.

PBS Space Time

AI - The Fermi paradox is a question that arises from the apparent contradiction between the high probability of extraterrestrial life existing in the vast universe and the lack of any conclusive evidence or contact with such life. It essentially asks, “Where are all the aliens?”.

Maybe it simply comes down to our inability to comprehend who we are, and were we live.

For me, since I appreciate that I’m simply another Earthling creature, I don’t understand the fuss.

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But then we must follow the evidence and allow that to drive our biases as much as possible.

The eukaryotic cell has been a real hurdle, it’s complexity and the difficulty of the conditions that made the incorporation of mitochondria and such into another cell as a working unit, was astronomical.

Apparently that is no long true thanks to discoveries over the past couple decades.

For a simply summary:

Also there is this on the astro physics front.

“The universe is more than 13 billion years old,” said Sullivan. “That means that even if there have been a thousand civilizations in our own galaxy, if they live only as long as we have been around—roughly ten thousand years—then all of them are likely already extinct. And others won’t evolve until we are long gone. For us to have much chance of success in finding another “contemporary” active technological civilization, on average they must last much longer than our present lifetime.”

Although if you think about it - they are talking about 10K of civilized humans - but real, earth shattering, technology is barely 200-300 years old, and will certainly not be around 200 years from now. It will be a miracle for our complex technological society to make it another 50 years. What can I say, Earth’s geophysics can only be ignored by the ignorant, Earth’s physical reality will certainly not be ignoring it. …

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