One of our pals has shown a gross level of misunderstanding regarding how warming our global climate system will alter fundamental aspects of the world hydrological cycle in ways that are sure to be detrimental to prosperous farming and other modern pursuits our society depends on.
In truth it is a heck of a lot easier to grow all kinds of food in hot and steamy Alabama than cold and snowy Alberta. No shit Sherlock, warmth is more conducive to life than cold as long as there is water. Considering that precipitation comes from evaporation, and evaporation increases with temperature, then it stands to reason that global precipitation will increase with global warming. Hotter and wetter means a whole lot more agricultural productivity. How this situation looks like doomsday to you is truly baffling to me.I believe his nonsense deserves to be called out with solid information that will help folks better grasp what's going on out there.
Climate Change Has Intensified the Global Water Cycle Published: April 26th, 2012 By Michael D. Lemonick http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-has-intensified-the-global-water-cycle Climate scientists have been saying for years that one of the many downsides of a warming planet is that both droughts and torrential rains are both likely to get worse. Thatâs what climate models predict, and thatâs what observers have noted, most recently in the IPCCâs report on extreme weather], released last month. It makes physical sense, too. A warmer atmosphere can absorb more water vapor, and what goes up must come down â and thanks to prevailing winds, it wonât come down in the same place. The idea of changes to the so-called hydrologic cycle, in short, hangs together pretty well. According to a new paper just published in Science, however, the picture is flawed in one important and disturbing way. Based on measurements gathered around the world from 1950-2000, a team of researchers from Australia and the U.S. has concluded that the hydrologic cycle is indeed changing. Wet areas are getting wetter and dry areas are getting drier. But itâs happening about twice as fast as anyone thought, and that could mean big trouble for places like Australia, which has already been experiencing crushing drought in recent years. The reason for this disconnect between expectation and reality is that the easiest place to collect rainfall data is on land, where scientists and rain gauges are located. About 71 percent of the world is covered in ocean, however. âMost of the action, however, takes place over the sea," lead author Paul Durack, a postdoctoral fellow at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ⌠The climate models werenât really wrong, Durack hastened to add. âTheyâre accurately capturing the spatial patterns in hydrologic changes, and theyâve got the basic physics right. Theyâre just providing very conservative estimates of how big the changes are, and now weâre starting to understand that." âŚ
Climate change and the hydrological cycle BY YOCHANAN KUSHNIR|DECEMBER 19, 2008 http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2008/12/19/climate-change-and-the-hydrological-cycle/ The prospects of significant and damaging changes in the hydrological cycle due to the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations were raised in earlier IPCC reports and restated more strongly in the most recent, 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Now, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) issued its final Synthesis and Assessment Report on Abrupt Climate Change with an entire chapter dedicated to the subject of âHydrological Variability and Change" addressing this potential climate hazard. Overall, the chapter confirms the IPCC AR4 conclusions giving an extensive survey of the history of U.S. droughts and the physical mechanism behind their occurrence. Here we highlight a few points regarding the major conclusions stated in the CCSP Report. 1. Two types of drought: ⌠2. How does global warming cause subtropical drying? To understand the mechanism of greenhouse warming related droughts we note that regionally, the hydrological cycle is a balance between two large terms: the atmospheric moisture influx into the region and the local difference between precipitation and evaporation (two smaller terms: storage of moisture in the upper ocean or in the ground and runoff of surface water in streams and rivers, complete the balance). Much of the subtropics lie over the world ocean areas where climate models indicate that when greenhouse gas concentrations increase and the surface warms âdry" regions, from which the atmosphere extracts moisture, will experience increased drying while âwet" regions, where atmospheric moisture inflow allows precipitation to exceed evaporation, will get wetter. This is a direct result of the warmer atmosphere being able to hold more moisture and thus existing patterns of atmospheric moisture transport intensify. Since currently the atmosphere exports moisture out of the subtropics and evaporation in these areas exceeds precipitation, this imbalance will increase in the future, drying these belts even further. Over land the situation is somewhat different. ⌠3. Future droughts and ânatural" climate variability. ... 4. How certain are these projections? ...
Global Warming May Alter Critical Atmospheric Rivers How will climate change impact the source of much of California's water? By Andrea Thompson, Climate Central on February 6, 2015 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-warming-may-alter-critical-atmospheric-rivers/ The hose has been turned back on full-force over Northern California: A stream of moisture is flowing over the drought-riddled state and dropping copious amounts of rain just days after the close of one of the driest Januaries on record. The influx of much-needed rain comes courtesy of a feature called an atmospheric river that is a key source of much of the stateâs precipitation and water supply. A relatively recent meteorological discovery, these ribbons of water vapor in the sky are something scientists are trying to better understand. âŚ
CCSP - SAP 3.4 Abrupt Climate Change Report Chapter 2 Hydrological Variability and Change Chapter Lead Author: Edward R. Cook,* Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY Contributing Authors: Patrick J. Bartlein,* Univ. OR, Eugene; Noah Diffenbaugh, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; Richard Seager,* Columbia Univ., Palisades,NY; Bryan N. Shuman, Univ. MN, Minneapolis; Robert S. Webb,* NOAA, Boulder, CO; John W. Williams, Univ. CA Santa Barbara; Connie Woodhouse, Univ. AZ, Tucson. Key Findings Variations in water supply in general, and protracted droughts in particular, are arguably the greatest natural hazards facing the United States and the globe today and in the foreseeable future. In contrast to floods, which reflect both antecedent conditions and current meteorological events, and which are consequently more localized in time and space, droughts occur on subcontinental to continental scales, and can persist for decades and even centuries. On interannual to decadal time scales, droughts can develop faster than the time scale needed for human societies to adapt to the change. Thus, a severe drought lasting several years can be regarded as an abrupt change, although it may not reflect a permanent change of state of the climate system. ⌠These megadroughts are significant, because they occurred in a climate system that was not being perturbed by major changes in its boundary conditions anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, atmospheric dust loadings, and land-cover changes). ...