Yea, I think of clouds are ice cover too, because the upper clouds are sometimes just small ice particles. But they can come and go much faster than sheet ice without leaving anything to base a study on. It will be interesting what the models come up with. Great data on the website you posted, but I think the answer they were giving is at this time, it remains an uncertainty. They are connecting the clouds to the oceans but think the data is in a trend period and so they really don’t know. Both sides of the issue think the clouds are an area of total disagreement. This may be an issue that can only be answered by the climate models. I have never read any data on how much earth coverage the clouds produce, I guess it would have to be based upon density and solar location.It gets even more complex when you factor in human created cloud cover. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/space/contrail-effect.html But none of that alters the very well understood positive forcing created by significantly increasing the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. The signal for human forced climate change due to the huge amounts of CO2 that have been emitted became apparent over 2 decades ago.Can you define our (concerned citizens) best path or goals? This is a worldwide problem, we are 5% of the world population. As previous posted, step one is to define that there is a problem. And for the most part, that has been established. What are your thoughts on the next step?
Can you define our (concerned citizens) best path or goals? This is a worldwide problem, we are 5% of the world population. As previous posted, step one is to define that there is a problem. And for the most part, that has been established. What are your thoughts on the next step?Develop, support and implement international agreements that begin a large scale phase out of fossil fuels is the first step. We also need to implement changes that take into account that the resources that we all depend on for our lives are finite and that we're rapidly destroying the essential biosphere by treating the world as disposable. It means changing habits and ways of thinking on a global scale, collectively we need to stop thinking of ourselves as separate and somehow above the natural world. We're one tiny piece in an incredibly intricate biological puzzle that makes our existence possible.
Can you define our (concerned citizens) best path or goals? This is a worldwide problem, we are 5% of the world population. As previous posted, step one is to define that there is a problem. And for the most part, that has been established. What are your thoughts on the next step?Develop, support and implement international agreements that begin a large scale phase out of fossil fuels is the first step. We also need to implement changes that take into account that the resources that we all depend on for our lives are finite and that we're rapidly destroying the essential biosphere by treating the world as disposable. It means changing habits and ways of thinking on a global scale, collectively we need to stop thinking of ourselves as separate and somehow above the natural world. We're one tiny piece in an incredibly intricate biological puzzle that makes our existence possible.Never work in a million years. Logical yes, for a few countries. Practical no, for most of the world. History has shown that most international agreements aren’t worth the paper they are written upon. Most of the time international agreements are just political instruments that take decades to get anything done. Now the exception to the worthless agreements are the corporation agreements, in other words, companies like Exon, Halliburton and the big banks have a better track records with legal agreements around the world. It might take a combination of both corporation and international laws working together under one entity. But the last time we tried that we created the World Bank, and what a mess that has turned out to be. And the task it was given, to clean up the WWII banking mess, and make sure the gold bonds holders got paid. Well it was never completed, it turned political.
Mike, I finally had the time to get through the Radio Ecoshock podcast and take a few notes.
At the 5:30 mark James Gleick said we’re not good at forecasting threshold events that cause abrupt climate change.
At about the 10:32 mark he explained that uncertainty, as used by scientists, means there is a range of possible outcomes, not that the science is in doubt.
At the 15 minute mark Pam Pearson said that once ice melts it takes long period of cool temperatures to reestablish the ice, cooler than anything humans have experienced since the dawn of civilization. She also noted that melting permafrost releases methane and carbon dioxide.
40:00 Dr. James Kennet said that in the last 20 to 30 years we have learned how sensitive the climate is to forcing but we don’t yet know what causes tipping points for abrupt climate change.
47:30 the Santa Barbara (CA) seabed segment gives us a very high fidelity record of climate through geochemical and paleobiology proxies which record global temperatures. Scientists can compare these with measurements in the Greenland ice sheets and other proxies around the globe.
All three stressed that we know what is causing current global warming. As DougC pointed out, it is physics. The three also emphasized the time pressure we face to minimize global warming. We already face dangerous levels of global warming, and waiting is only going to make things worse for future generations.
Never work in a million years. Logical yes, for a few countries. Practical no, for most of the world. History has shown that most international agreements aren’t worth the paper they are written upon. Most of the time international agreements are just political instruments that take decades to get anything done. Now the exception to the worthless agreements are the corporation agreements, in other words, companies like Exon, Halliburton and the big banks have a better track records with legal agreements around the world. It might take a combination of both corporation and international laws working together under one entity. But the last time we tried that we created the World Bank, and what a mess that has turned out to be. And the task it was given, to clean up the WWII banking mess, and make sure the gold bonds holders got paid. Well it was never completed, it turned political.It's logical for every country, that's the whole point. No one is going to be left unaffected and eventually destroyed if business as usual is allowed to progress. It's the CFCs] issue writ large. The challenge is certainly greater in forming and implementing an effective international agreement, but the consequences of not doing so are catastrophic. Any government or corporation that stands in the way of this will eventually face the responsibility for programing us for destruction on a global scale.
It gets even more complex when you factor in human created cloud cover. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/space/contrail-effect.html But none of that alters the very well understood positive forcing created by significantly increasing the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. The signal for human forced climate change due to the huge amounts of CO2 that have been emitted became apparent over 2 decades ago.If anyone's interested in learning more about clouds and climate, may I recommend this excellent lecture:
David Randall: The Role of Clouds and Water Vapor in Climate Change https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjE4GDC7afQ Simon Fraser University Uploaded on Apr 14, 2011
It's logical for every country, that's the whole point. No one is going to be left unaffected and eventually destroyed if business as usual is allowed to progress. It's the CFCs] issue writ large. The challenge is certainly greater in forming and implementing an effective international agreement, but the consequences of not doing so are catastrophic. Any government or corporation that stands in the way of this will eventually face the responsibility for programing us for destruction on a global scale.When has logic ever had anything to with it? When I look around people are hardening their unwillingness to consider "the other" Most are so self-certain they're like bricks, no imagination about our planet, no interest in anything but the next consumerist fix - and not have to think complex thoughts while they are struggling to get through their day to days. For self-protection we've become adept at demonizing everyone, rather than copping to the fact that in the end, we're all fools on this ship. Nah, self-certitude, self-indignation, hostility and violence (rhetorical or physical) seems the only response these days. How can anything change, if people refuse to comprehend what we are doing to our planet? How will people ever act if they never develop any understanding, appreciation, even affection for this biosphere and planet that keeps us alive? Besides, seems to me, we've wasted too many decades, our window of opportunity for easy rational constructive changes (which demanded (in the 70s, 80s, 90s) less babies, less resource consumption, less fossil fuels burning, more nurturing and setting aside big expanses of Earth's biosphere, more building with weather and solar conditions in mind, rather than Trophy Home Syndrome superficiality - None of which anyone could bring themselves to work for.) has passed. Tipping points have been passed, for instance consider the situation in Antarctic, events have been set in motion which will only accelerate as our CO2 injections into our atmosphere continue increasing. Events that guarantee massive destruction along the planet's coastal areas. Nope, no quantifying exactly where, when, how bad… but that doesn't make its inevitableness any less real. Two decades, Three decades? Don't forget nastier storms and hurricanes, and when the remaining barrier vegetation get's destroyed - we're into a whole new world. Our society is doomed, these weather trends that have already been kicking ass all over, they are guaranteed to intensify. Heat waves, this summer will be telling. There is so much about how this planet keeps us alive that most everyone is blind to. We been destroying biosphere networks right and left and most have the hubris to think nothing is happening and that a 30 year mortgage makes sense (think the building boom on Miami Beach). Oh lordie and they call me deluded.
When has logic ever had anything to with it? When I look around people are hardening their unwillingness to consider "the other" Most are so self-certain they're like bricks, no imagination about our planet, no interest in anything but the next consumerist fix - and not have to think complex thoughts while they are struggling to get through their day to days. For self-protection we've become adept at demonizing everyone, rather than copping to the fact that in the end, we're all fools on this ship. Nah, self-certitude, self-indignation, hostility and violence (rhetorical or physical) seems the only response these days. How can anything change, if people refuse to comprehend what we are doing to our planet? How will people ever act if they never develop any understanding, appreciation, even affection for this biosphere and planet that keeps us alive? Besides, seems to me, we've wasted too many decades, our window of opportunity for easy rational constructive changes (which demanded (in the 70s, 80s, 90s) less babies, less resource consumption, less fossil fuels burning, more nurturing and setting aside big expanses of Earth's biosphere, more building with weather and solar conditions in mind, rather than Trophy Home Syndrome superficiality - None of which anyone could bring themselves to work for.) has passed. Tipping points have been passed, for instance consider the situation in Antarctic, events have been set in motion which will only accelerate as our CO2 injections into our atmosphere continue increasing. Events that guarantee massive destruction along the planet's coastal areas. Nope, no quantifying exactly where, when, how bad… but that doesn't make its inevitableness any less real. Two decades, Three decades? Don't forget nastier storms and hurricanes, and when the remaining barrier vegetation get's destroyed - we're into a whole new world. Our society is doomed, these weather trends that have already been kicking ass all over, they are guaranteed to intensify. Heat waves, this summer will be telling. There is so much about how this planet keeps us alive that most everyone is blind to. We been destroying biosphere networks right and left and most have the hubris to think nothing is happening and that a 30 year mortgage makes sense (think the building boom on Miami Beach). Oh lordie and they call me deluded.And yet some of us keep trying to engage as many as possible to the risks and possible solutions. Where there's life there is hope, the challenges are huge, but I think the desire by huge number of people to actually find a rational balance is there, it just gets covered up by the shit that is constantly shoveled on top of us by the cynical wealthy few who have the most to lose by the needed paradigm shift. It's coming, the question is just how much of real value will be saved.
Where there's life there is hope, the challenges are huge, but I think the desire by huge number of people to actually find a rational balance is there, it just gets covered up by the shit that is constantly shoveled on top of us by the cynical wealthy few who have the most to lose by the needed paradigm shift.Yeah, I'd rather be bailing than standing around watching the ship sink, still it seems such a sad futile effort - and I'm not just referring to my own totally futile efforts, I don't see anyone else connecting with people and providing any aha moments to build change upon. Faith based disconnect and resentment at the thought that there's new stuff to learn and bankrupt notions to discard seems to do nothing but get stronger, even as the symptoms of global warming get more obvious and disruptive with every season.
It's coming, the question is just how much of real value will be saved.True enough. And where will it be savable? This climate thing is going to hit different areas differently and at different pace - winners, losers and all that. I have the feeling the hysteria among people when they start losing big parts of cities and infrastructure and food and need to move, will cause as much human destruction and misery as the extreme weather. Future winners are going to be increasingly isolated. Consider our complex global communication systems - how vulnerable are they (& the factories that produce its complex components) to extreme weather events? If I were young and intent on being one of the survivors into our Brave New World, I'd put learning about short wave radios high on my bucket-list. One thing survivors will need is a new appreciate for this planet, where it came from, how it developed into what we had, how we destroyed that, and then learning how to work together with natural systems as partners rather than that idiot Great White Lord superiority complex that's allowed us to so blindly destroy so much we depend on.
Where there's life there is hope, the challenges are huge, but I think the desire by huge number of people to actually find a rational balance is there, it just gets covered up by the shit that is constantly shoveled on top of us by the cynical wealthy few who have the most to lose by the needed paradigm shift.Yeah, I'd rather be bailing than standing around watching the ship sink, still it seems such a sad futile effort - and I'm not just referring to my own totally futile efforts, I don't see anyone else connecting with people and providing any aha moments to build change upon. Faith based disconnect and resentment at the thought that there's new stuff to learn and bankrupt notions to discard seems to do nothing but get stronger, even as the symptoms of global warming get more obvious and disruptive with every season.
It's coming, the question is just how much of real value will be saved.True enough. And where will it be savable? This climate thing is going to hit different areas differently and at different pace - winners, losers and all that. I have the feeling the hysteria among people when they start losing big parts of cities and infrastructure and food and need to move, will cause as much human destruction and misery as the extreme weather. Future winners are going to be increasingly isolated. Consider our complex global communication systems - how vulnerable are they (& the factories that produce its complex components) to extreme weather events? If I were young and intent on being one of the survivors into our Brave New World, I'd put learning about short wave radios high on my bucket-list. One thing survivors will need is a new appreciate for this planet, where it came from, how it developed into what we had, how we destroyed that, and then learning how to work together with natural systems as partners rather than that idiot Great White Lord superiority complex that's allowed us to so blindly destroy so much we depend on. I'm Canadian, if you asked me before last November the future outlook for this country I would have said it was bleak. We had a regressive and repressive government that was also at the center of the global climate change denial movement. That government was soundly defeated in part by moderate Canadians who finally got off their asses and did something. That includes me, for the first time in my life I did more than just show up to vote, the fact that the candidate I supported was a long time environmentalist made it easy. I was out walking in the rain to drop off fliers and the night of the election I was knocking on doors of supporters to make sure they got out to turf our shitty conservative government. Everyone I spoke to was on the same page as me. Our MP candidate won by a large margin and Canada now has a government that isn't just willing but eager to work with the rest of the world to find a way out of this mess. This can spread to many other places, the constant jamming of effective communication by the fossil fuel sector and the financial sector that backs it can only deny for so long, once real change kicks in it will be over for them. There are far more moderate and good people out there than sociopaths and outright psychopaths. We're only powerless if we buy into their lies that we're both helpless and we need them. We don't need them, they're complete parasites on us and that includes the fossil fuel sector and most of the banking and investing sector.
Congrats on the win. That was definitely good news! Congrats on being part of that effort. Yeah, it would be nice. Recently I joined CCL (Climate Change Organization | Citizens' Climate Lobby) try to give it another go this election round.
This can spread to many other places, the constant jamming of effective communication by the fossil fuel sector and the financial sector that backs it can only deny for so long, once real change kicks in it will be over for them. There are far more moderate and good people out there than sociopaths and outright psychopaths. We're only powerless if we buy into their lies that we're both helpless and we need them. We don't need them, they're complete parasites on us and that includes the fossil fuel sector and most of the banking and investing sector.Hope spring eternal - It would be nice to see some waking up in this country.
Where there's life there is hope, the challenges are huge, but I think the desire by huge number of people to actually find a rational balance is there, it just gets covered up by the shit that is constantly shoveled on top of us by the cynical wealthy few who have the most to lose by the needed paradigm shift.Yeah, I'd rather be bailing than standing around watching the ship sink, still it seems such a sad futile effort - and I'm not just referring to my own totally futile efforts, I don't see anyone else connecting with people and providing any aha moments to build change upon. Faith based disconnect and resentment at the thought that there's new stuff to learn and bankrupt notions to discard seems to do nothing but get stronger, even as the symptoms of global warming get more obvious and disruptive with every season.
It's coming, the question is just how much of real value will be saved.True enough. And where will it be savable? This climate thing is going to hit different areas differently and at different pace - winners, losers and all that. I have the feeling the hysteria among people when they start losing big parts of cities and infrastructure and food and need to move, will cause as much human destruction and misery as the extreme weather. Future winners are going to be increasingly isolated. Consider our complex global communication systems - how vulnerable are they (& the factories that produce its complex components) to extreme weather events? If I were young and intent on being one of the survivors into our Brave New World, I'd put learning about short wave radios high on my bucket-list. One thing survivors will need is a new appreciate for this planet, where it came from, how it developed into what we had, how we destroyed that, and then learning how to work together with natural systems as partners rather than that idiot Great White Lord superiority complex that's allowed us to so blindly destroy so much we depend on. I'm Canadian, if you asked me before last November the future outlook for this country I would have said it was bleak. We had a regressive and repressive government that was also at the center of the global climate change denial movement. That government was soundly defeated in part by moderate Canadians who finally got off their asses and did something. That includes me, for the first time in my life I did more than just show up to vote, the fact that the candidate I supported was a long time environmentalist made it easy. I was out walking in the rain to drop off fliers and the night of the election I was knocking on doors of supporters to make sure they got out to turf our shitty conservative government. Everyone I spoke to was on the same page as me. Our MP candidate won by a large margin and Canada now has a government that isn't just willing but eager to work with the rest of the world to find a way out of this mess. This can spread to many other places, the constant jamming of effective communication by the fossil fuel sector and the financial sector that backs it can only deny for so long, once real change kicks in it will be over for them. There are far more moderate and good people out there than sociopaths and outright psychopaths. We're only powerless if we buy into their lies that we're both helpless and we need them. We don't need them, they're complete parasites on us and that includes the fossil fuel sector and most of the banking and investing sector. Congrats on Trudeau. He's something else. And CC, I don't think your efforts are totally futile. It takes a lot of drops of water to make an ocean.
Congrats on the win. That was definitely good news! Congrats on being part of that effort. Yeah, it would be nice. Recently I joined CCL (https://citizensclimatelobby.org/about-ccl/) try to give it another go this election round.That's excellent, it's good to see that there is a broad based movement forming around some of the polices advised by people like James Hansen such as the fee and dividend system to make fossil fuels non-competitive while placing money in the hands of citizens who can then chose to purchase energy from sustainable sources.
Hope spring eternal - It would be nice to see some waking up in this country.Some of my family arrived in Virginia colony in the 1740s before the USA even existed, I think it's an amazing country with people who when they come together for an important cause are a force to truly be reckoned with. That's what pisses me off so much about the fossil fuel and financial sector, I think they're intentionally crippling the American public in their own interests.
Congrats on Trudeau. He's something else.I was volunteering for the NDP but I think most Canadians are far happier with Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister than that other guy. Every seat that didn't go to the conservatives was a victory in my opinion. This is the MP I worked to help get elected. http://richardcannings.ndp.ca/about
DeConto and Pollard – An Antarctic Science (Fiction?) Disaster
psik
Congrats on Trudeau. He's something else.I was volunteering for the NDP but I think most Canadians are far happier with Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister than that other guy. Every seat that didn't go to the conservatives was a victory in my opinion. This is the MP I worked to help get elected. http://richardcannings.ndp.ca/about Impressive.
These NASA images may be of interest.
Images of Change - Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet
When has logic ever had anything to with it? .......And yet some of us keep trying to engage as many as possible to the risks and possible solutions. Where there's life there is hope, the challenges are huge, but I think the desire by huge number of people to actually find a rational balance is there, it just gets covered up by the shit that is constantly shoveled on top of us by the cynical wealthy few who have the most to lose by the needed paradigm shift. It's coming, the question is just how much of real value will be saved. I don’t think that there is any data to back up your line of thinking. None that I have seen so far. I agree with you that everyone is going to be affected and damage could be catastrophic. The conjecture is in the statement “It’s logical for every country…." part. In a perfect world, I would have to agree. But, this never has been and most likely will never be a perfect world. Tell me why it would not be more logical to continual on the same path for the next four to five years as the data from the computer models becomes more viable. It is agreed that the human footprint is causing earth warming. It is agreed that when the earth goes into the cooling cycle that jumps can cause drastic changes in earth’s temperature. It is agreed by many that the earth is now in the cooling cycle. Some think that the warming we are experiencing is a trend caused by the following lag of the earth’s temperature cycles. If a cooling jump materializes, many scientists think that the jump can happen in as little as fifty year period. That would put the earth in an ice age. And the catastrophic affects can be much worse than the warming catastrophes that you are talking about. In a few years we could be working on problems of how to put more carbon into the atmosphere to slow the cooling. We just don’t have enough full spectrum data to make any major “no going back policies" at this time. Our top guy on climate change is John Holdren. And John is telling us that we are in the cooling cycle right now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DX3Xhw6ufnE&nohtml5=False Question number three. Sidebar, in the 1970’s Mr. Holdren said that human activity was probably going to put us into another Ice Age. Think what would have happen if we had reacted to conjecture of the data at that period of time.
Tell me why it would not be more logical to continual on the same path for the next four to five years as the data from the computer models becomes more viable. It is agreed that the human footprint is causing earth warming. It is agreed that when the earth goes into the cooling cycle that jumps can cause drastic changes in earth’s temperature. It is agreed by many that the earth is now in the cooling cycle. Some think that the warming we are experiencing is a trend caused by the following lag of the earth’s temperature cycles. If a cooling jump materializes, many scientists think that the jump can happen in as little as fifty year period. That would put the earth in an ice age. And the catastrophic affects can be much worse than the warming catastrophes that you are talking about. In a few years we could be working on problems of how to put more carbon into the atmosphere to slow the cooling. We just don’t have enough full spectrum data to make any major “no going back policies" at this time. Our top guy on climate change is John Holdren. And John is telling us that we are in the cooling cycle right now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DX3Xhw6ufnE&nohtml5=False Question number three. Sidebar, in the 1970’s Mr. Holdren said that human activity was probably going to put us into another Ice Age. Think what would have happen if we had reacted to conjecture of the data at that period of time.None of your "it is agreed upon" statements is true. Who are these people who agree Earth is now in a cooling cycle? Show us some links to support your statement that cooling can happen in as little as 50 years. John Holdren also argued for forced abortions and mass sterilization. One rogue's opinion does to change the scientific consensus. As for what difference it makes if we wait another five years, the answer is obvious to anyone who pays attention to the scientists. We are dangerously close to reaching a tipping point where other we do can reverse catastrophic global warming. Dealing is morally unjustifiable.
Tell me why it would not be more logical to continual on the same path for the next four to five years as the data from the computer models becomes more viable. It is agreed that the human footprint is causing earth warming. It is agreed that when the earth goes into the cooling cycle that jumps can cause drastic changes in earth’s temperature. It is agreed by many that the earth is now in the cooling cycle. Some think that the warming we are experiencing is a trend caused by the following lag of the earth’s temperature cycles. If a cooling jump materializes, many scientists think that the jump can happen in as little as fifty year period. That would put the earth in an ice age. And the catastrophic affects can be much worse than the warming catastrophes that you are talking about. In a few years we could be working on problems of how to put more carbon into the atmosphere to slow the cooling. We just don’t have enough full spectrum data to make any major “no going back policies" at this time. Our top guy on climate change is John Holdren. And John is telling us that we are in the cooling cycle right now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DX3Xhw6ufnE&nohtml5=False Question number three. Sidebar, in the 1970’s Mr. Holdren said that human activity was probably going to put us into another Ice Age. Think what would have happen if we had reacted to conjecture of the data at that period of time.None of your "it is agreed upon" statements is true. Who are these people who agree Earth is now in a cooling cycle? Show us some links to support your statement that cooling can happen in as little as 50 years. John Holdren also argued for forced abortions and mass sterilization. One rogue's opinion does to change the scientific consensus. As for what difference it makes if we wait another five years, the answer is obvious to anyone who pays attention to the scientists. We are dangerously close to reaching a tipping point where other we do can reverse catastrophic global warming. Dealing is morally unjustifiable. Did you check out the site I posted? Did not say that I agree with John Holdren, I said he is our top guy right now. The direction of these posts has now went to the subject of policy actions need to be taken. The top policy guy is the president. Am I correct? And his top advisor is John Holdren. Is that correct? I have ask you where we are in the climate cycle. And you know what! I get no answer. At least Mr. Holdren will answer the question. Can you answer that same question? How many times do I have to ask? As for the catastrophic global warming, let’s not jump from the frying pan into the fire. From Wikipedia John Holdren is the senior advisor to President Barack Obama on science and technology issues through his roles as Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and Co-Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. Holdren was previously the Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University,[8] director of the Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program at the School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and Director of the Woods Hole Research Center.