author="MikeYohe" date="1501923457 - RE: sea levels. Glacial vs. Interglacial cycles.
The way I understand the 100,000-year cycles is that the earth cools to the Ice Age glacial cycle in only 10,000 years.
Then it takes 90,000-years to warm the earth again.
The chart shows the interglacial cycle that we are in right now. During the interglacial period, the sea levels rise.
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/abrupt-climate-change/Glacial-Interglacial Cycles
//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/716px_width/public/glacial-interglacial.jpg?itok=19bwFcU9
Spam would not let me insert chart.
About 21,000 years ago, during the last glacial maximum (LGM), sea level was about 125 meters (about 410 feet) lower than it is today.
About 125,000 years ago, during a warmer climatic interval in the last interglacial stage, sea level was about 6 meters (about 19.7 feet) higher than it is today.
www2.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/glaciers/glaciers_sea_level.asp
Point being, if you try and fight Mother Nature, you will lose. We can expect the sea to rise another 20 feet. We are going to have to deal with that.
And that rise has nothing to do with climate change.
CC, Reading your post about the sea level rise on the coastal towns. It is wrong to blame sea-level rise on climate change when
global warming will cause the sea-levels to rise. {Hold on. Are saying there's a difference between global warming and climate change?*}
All climate change is said to do is to accelerate the process. You do make that clear in your post that it is an acceleration affect. What is the accelerating rate?
Are we talking 200 years instead of 500 years? The sea-level goes up and down 430 feet in a cycle.
The problem is that all this sea level rise seems blamed on climate change and not the natural global warming.
That’s fake science and should be made clear that it is part of the earth’s natural cycles.
In 2012, at the request of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, NOAA scientists conducted a review of the research on global sea level rise projections,
and concluded that there is very high confidence (greater than 90% chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 8 inches (0.2 meter)
but no more than 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) by 2100.
World population today is 7.5 billion, by 2100 it is estimated to be 10 billion. {You actually believe that? Ever hear of critical thinking?}
Thank you for all that, it helps me understand your thinking a bit better.
Let me offer a couple thoughts.
To begin with all of us view Earth from within our own intellectual framework, which directly correlates with how much we’ve learned about Earth’s history
and her diverse geography plus her many geophysical processes.
It sounds like you conceptualize Earth moving through time in cycles that sorta repeat. That is wrong and will lead you astray every time.
Rather than cycles it’s more accurate to conceptualize Earth moving through time - as though through a metaphorical spiral, never actually repeating itself.
It can’t repeat itself because every new era impacts all subsequent events and eras.
Earth reached a fantastic plateau about ten thousand years ago, one that never existed before precisely because it was the result of cumulative
geophysical processes that needed to evolve through their various cascading products before the stage was set for humanity’s big time.
Our climate optimum was a direct product of the preceding billions of years of evolution.
It was a precious fragile thing that needed to be understood, nurtured and protected.
Please think about it, 170 years ago our atmospheric insulation register, so to speak, was set at a bit under 300ppm, deepest glacial periods it was <200 ppm.
Since then we’ve been digging up sequestered fossil fuels (read Carbon, burning it, read CO2, GHGs) and adding it to our atmosphere and our oceans.
In that short span of a few generations our Atmospheric Insulation Register rose over 100ppm and continues rising.
Interestingly, the graph you choose to share leaves out the past few hundred years - today the C02 line would be at that 5 mark on the right side of your graph -
how can you possibly imagine that isn’t going to have a massive disruptive impact?
Inevitable this has produced a radical detour away the trajectory Earth was on.
Expecting someone to hand you exact figures and future forecasts reveals either a ruthless disingenuousness or a profoundly shallow understanding of Earth's processes.
What we do know for certain is that if we don’t radically cut down on what we are adding to our atmospheric insulation
(not to mention the nightmarish sibling reality of Ocean Acidification), all future changes will be even more radical and upsetting then today’s worst estimates.
Sea Level Rise
What city is ready for one foot of sea level rise, let alone a meter - or the storm surges that will give threat-multiplier a whole new meaning?
How hot is too hot?
Select regions of our world are already terribly close (~2°C) to experiencing wet bulb temperatures exceeding human physiological tolerance thresholds.
Meaning your sweat can’t cool your body! Is that hot enough for you?
Even the most conservative reality based future trends are horrifying, yet you keep thinking you can put economic needs above facing down to Earth factual reality.
Instead of embracing moderation, the mad yahoo fools most of us are, continue wanting to push the pollution pedal to the metal and speed the
transforming of our atmosphere away from the fragile balance that not so long ago allowed humanity and society to flourish to incredible heights.
There is much we can learn about Earth’s fundamental processes studying our planet’s geophysical history.
But, never pretend that today’s conditions are remotely reflected in Earth’s past. They are not. Nothing in the past echoes the current transformation.
Milankovitch cycles?
All historic rhythms have been disrupted and as the Milankovitch cycles continue their ponderous progressions,
you refuse to face the fact that their influence has been hugely over-shadowed by how radically we’ve changed our atmosphere’s heat holding capacity.
Milankovitch cycles are about tiny fluctuations in Earth’s overall Insolation spread over many thousands of years, we’ve kicked that out of the ball park.
Nothing in our past can prepare us for where this once wonderful Earth is heading, thanks to humanity’s collective disregard.
Deep time.
For instance you keep coming back to long term cosmological variations. Ever spend much time pondering “deep time"?
Look at those time spans that you so casually rattle off. Then look back at your graph, now tell me what kind of CO2 fluctuation are we talking about?
It’s right there on your graph, ~100 ppm, over how many thousands of years?
In ~170 years society single handedly has cranked up Earth’s Atmospheric Insulation Register by over 100 ppm. Now, try to ponder the difference between
150 years and 10,000 years or 100,000 years. Are you catching my drift brother?
{Christ, my daughter should she live to a decent mature age,
will experience our self-inflicted hell on Earth. Caused by our society’s infrastructure not being able to keep up with nature’s weather onslaughts.
And I’m not supposed to show my irritation??? - but I digress.}
* Okay, if you want to be super duper picky, Manmade Global Warming drives Manmade Climate Change. Fair enough?
* Okay, if you want to be super duper picky, Manmade Global Warming drives Manmade Climate Change. Fair enough?
